Will Momentum Cause Freak Out In The First District?

Paging Dr Dan Paging Dr Dan - you're needed on the campaign.. STAT!

CD1-TrendOne of the surprise campaigns of the year might be in Northern Michigan where veteran Alan Arcand has just crept up on CD1’s Dan Benishek and gave him a poll wedgie.

The Arcand camp is reporting that a three day series of polls in the first congressional district show a momentum surge that has brought upstart Arcand within the margin of error. From a press release:

Iron River, MI — The campaign of Republican challenger Alan Arcand today announced the results of three polls conducted over the week of July 28, 2014. Respondent surveys indicate a distinct trend of momentum shifting towards the conservative veteran in the final week leading up to the August 5 primary election. With the favorability rating of Congressman Dan Benishek at an all time low during this campaign cycle, newcomer Alan Arcand is poised for victory against the establishment incumbent.

The average of the results over the three-day period, which include 1,875 respondents, reveal the race is neck and neck. Arcand’s chipping away at Benishek’s fiscally irresponsible voting record has gained him 47% of the vote.

Campaign manager Ben Lazarus said, “The polls show people are not happy with the job Dan Benishek is doing in Congress. They want someone who will represent them.”

The universe of potential survey respondents was geographically proportional to the 2012 Republican primary election turnout, by county.

Polling conducted by the independent research group has a margin of error of +/-3.5%.

At this point, it shouldn’t surprise.

The Heritage rated 50% Benishek campaign has all but ignored Arcand, while he (Arcand) and his family have been working non stop to establish credibility and name recognition.  Signs may not win races, but as a political sign watcher, it should be noted that Arcand signs are popping up in locations and businesses normally associated with incumbency.  Benishek signs are nearly absent.

Aug 5 is going to be fun.

You Betcha! (41)Nuh Uh.(2)

  8 comments for “Will Momentum Cause Freak Out In The First District?

  1. Thomas
    July 31, 2014 at 10:44 am

    The next Dave Brat!

    You Betcha! (10)Nuh Uh.(1)
  2. Jill
    July 31, 2014 at 11:26 am

    I think the actual number for Arcand is higher, I for one, have not heard his name mentioned in any polls that I have taken. I am praying that he beats Dr Death, then wins by a landslide in November.

    You Betcha! (14)Nuh Uh.(0)
  3. July 31, 2014 at 12:56 pm

    Jason, your blog post is the lead story at Michigan's Drudge (MI Report)!! Sweet.

    You Betcha! (17)Nuh Uh.(0)
    • Jason
      July 31, 2014 at 1:11 pm

      I've been watching the numbers. People watching this story are cooking the server.

      You Betcha! (11)Nuh Uh.(0)
  4. Jason
    July 31, 2014 at 1:47 pm

    Norm Hughes couldn't reply directly at the time and wanted me to post this:

    Alan Arcand has been a great surprise on the campaign trail. He is personable, smart, committed, conservative, knows the issues, has the Right answers, and is very articulate. He and his family are picture-perfect for upper Michigan. Veterans are being poorly treated and Dr. Dan, wonderful man that he is, wore the blue scrubs for VA for 20 years. He, if anyone, should have been a loud voice for veterans to be promptly and properly treated. Our son waited four months in intense pain, for an MRI and they botched shoulder and ankle treatments from injuries in Iraq. A brother was refused adequate treatment for lung fibrosus complicated by agent orange in Vietnam, sucking hard for his last breath. Our children and grand children need a fighter for less government and no deficit spending. You can like and appreciate Dan but still vote for improvement. Arcand offers that.

    You Betcha! (16)Nuh Uh.(0)
  5. William
    July 31, 2014 at 2:41 pm

    Just looked him up. Endorsed by the Republican Liberty Caucus, Dave Agema, and Norm Hughes, Senior Political Adviser to the Reagan Administration.

    I. AM. SOLD.

    You Betcha! (7)Nuh Uh.(0)
  6. Tom Backers
    July 31, 2014 at 10:32 pm

    "WE are 5 days away"...

    From pulling off one of the greatest upsets in Michigan political history!!!

    Please drag your friends to the polls Tuesday!!!

    You Betcha! (9)Nuh Uh.(0)
  7. Republican Michigander
    August 2, 2014 at 10:37 am

    I think this primary will be real close. I'm not all that surprised by the polling.

    This is not a district that you want a "gone national" reputation.

    You Betcha! (0)Nuh Uh.(0)

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