Will Proposal 15-1 become a bridge too far for the GoverNerd?
According to a colleague of mine, the power of government (at any level), over its law-abiding citizens, is directly derived from the taxation authority. Think about that for a moment or two. In a truly free society, the government has no means to control the behavior of its citizens who arenโt actual criminals, nor will those citizens tolerate any such action from their duly-elected public servants. And while the citizenry does indeed pay taxes โ because even in a free society, the government still has the authority to tax โ control of the taxation mechanism isnโt left to the arbitrary whims of government functionaries, and the true tax burden is plainly visible for all to see.
By that measure, itโs been at least five decades since Michigan was a truly free state. Since being gifted with an income-based taxation model, and a full-time legislative model, the state that was once the engine of freedom has progressively mutated into a socialist laboratory, at best a generation between now and whatever bankruptcy chapter awaits a nominally sovereign state collapsing into receivership. And in that regard, I donโt think it overly dramatic to suggest that this statewide special election to decide the fate of a legislative piece of sausage is similar to Gettysburg . . . if we donโt stop them here, then where will we ever be able to stop them at all?
The upside is that We the People received a bit of good news on this front yesterday, though how thisโll ultimately play out is still an open question.

Two polls were released yesterday, apparently not in time to make the weekend news cycle, that seem to indicate that maybe we ought to have a bit more faith in the typical off-cycle voter. A poll conducted by Strategic National on Monday and Tuesday showed a nine-point uptick in opposition from a similar survey conducted about eight weeks previously. A poll conducted by Target Insyght on Tuesday and Wednesday initially showed no shift in opposition from a similar poll conducted nearly a year ago, but then registered a dramatic uptick in opposition (and a noticeable narrowing of the โundecidedโ bloc) after the actual ballot language was read. Notable in both survey reports is that the advertising saturation isnโt doing Safe Roads YES! any favors . . . thus far.
Even though things are looking pretty bleak right now for the Michigan Sales Tax Increase for Transportation Amendment (down roughly three dozen points at six weeks out), Ed Sarpolus of Target Insyght contends that this isnโt yet a done deal. However, for Governor Snyder to be able to successfully drag this turkey across the finish line a little over five weeks from now, he has to either solve his credibility problems or find a different primary messenger. And that suggestion brings back some really disturbing memories from roughly two and a half years ago.
A floor resolution to support the Michigan Tax Limitation Amendment (Proposal 12-5) should have been a โgimmeโ housekeeping vote at the September 2012 Michigan Republican State Convention. I say โshould have beenโ because, for some reason, such a resolution never saw the floor of the general session, let alone a vote. But the NerdKing wanted it killed (remember โOne is yes, no on the restโ?), so the typical behind-the-curtain maneuvering took place to ensure that the GoverNerd wouldnโt suffer the embarrassment of a public rebuke from his party of choice. And no one of importance made a stink out of Snyder using his bus tour of the state to openly advocate for killing the five proposals on the 2012 ballot that he didnโt agree with. Worse, the governorโs operatives made a point of quietly recruiting key county republican leadership and local tea party leadership, and had them take to social media and openly advocate for his position (complete with well-prepared talking points and red herrings).
As Sarpolus discussed in a special MIRS podcast yesterday, the governorโs key problem is that Proposal 1 is perceived publicly (correctly) as a top-down approach, rather than a grassroots citizen-initiative. His suggestion is that Snyder either (a) figure out how to get grassroots engagement in support of the proposal, and/or (b) get at least one credible high-profile democrat to act as an advocacy surrogate (perhaps as a show of bifarceisan support for a legislative sausage job).
Maybe itโs my imagination, but Iโve noticed that the radio and television advertising campaign that was just starting to pick up steam has all of a sudden dropped off a cliff, though I suspect that itโs probably just the โyesโ crew retooling their messaging (since what theyโre airing right now clearly isnโt working). Keep in mind that Richard Dale Snyder is a man whose ego doesnโt permit defeat on something thatโs actually important to him (remember โTake a vote, not a vacationโ?), and his conduct over the past five years or so has also shown that the ethical scruples that would normally restrain a platform republican donโt apply to him, so what happens next is going to say a great deal about Snyderโs intentions. RDS wanted Proposal 12-5 killed, specifically so that he could advance the ten-bill tax-ratchet agenda thatโs been tie-barred into 2014-HJR-UU (the House Fiscal Agency Analysis provides links to each) . . . as I warned back then would happen . . . so we can safely assume that heโs not going to just let this go. What I expect is that (if heโs in fact abandoned the advertising campaign for now) weโll see, at some point before the end of next week, high profile media appearances by โcredibleโ republican and democrat surrogates, as well as an aggressive social media campaign by the usual suspects (whoโll highlight their tea party street-cred as part of their approach).
Regardless, what we likely wonโt see is Snyder actually take up Tom McMillinโs challenge to โhave an adult conversationโ about Proposal 15-1, in the form of a public and on-the-record debate on the merits of not just the ballot proposal, but the entire tie-barred legislative package. Thatโs because, as we saw yesterday, actually discussing the merits of the proposal is a sure way to kill it . . . and even a nerd can figure that one out.



"...RDS wanted Proposal 12-5 killed, specifically so that he could advance the ten-bill tax-ratchet agenda thatโs been tie-barred into 2014-HJR-UU (the House Fiscal Agency Analysis provides links to each) . . . as I warned back then would happen . . . so we can safely assume that heโs not going to just let this go..."
Agreed...the House Tax Policy Committee in 2015 has been the #1 (and busiest in terms of proposed/corrupt legislation) threat to this state. The very worst of what is happening right now is being funded here and absolutely everything originating from there should be questioned as 'the other side' (if there ever was one) remains fed there as well for occasional cooperation in the minority.
Our newly minted Rep. on that same committee (Dave "Realtor Day" Maturen) is already asking for 'retroactive' tax policy there in his very first Bill: http://legislature.mi.gov/documents/2015-2016/billintroduced/House/pdf/2015-HIB-4173.pdf
"...THE AMENDMENT TO THIS SUBDIVISION ADDED BY THE AMENDATORY ACT THAT ADDED THIS SENTENCE IS INTENDED TO BE RETROACTIVE AND APPLY TO SALES OR TRANSFERS BEGINNING 4 YEARS IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE EFFECTIVE DATE OF THE AMENDATORY ACT THAT ADDED THIS SENTENCE.."
As KRH alluded to...this is where the action is (and obviously always has been).
Oh, "The other side", went practically much orgasmic at the
bribesrevenue set aside for them should Prop 1 pass...until they went back to their respective districts, after which, the fit hit the shan.I don't think that I've even seen democrats do a turnabout on an issues so quickly as I've seen with this one. Even those with a pedigree like Gary Peters aren't trying to sell this stink-bomb to voters.
Voters aren't being fooled by the "pay-no-attention-to-the-man-behind-the-curtain" tactics of the ads and op-eds in the papers keeping a laser-like focus on the "safety" argument.
From my read on this: It isn't so much a distrust of Gov Snyder's support for this tax hike (which is definitely here in Macomb...trust me), but rather the safety message isn't as resonating with voters anywhere as remotely as they hoped it would. This is why they are going back to the drawing board and edit suites to craft a new theme for their campaign.
The irony here is that is the only argument in support that they've got.
but, I wouldn't be too quick to chalk this one up as a victory just quite yet.
Even tax hikes like this one that had no chance in hell of passing before the election, somehow made a miraculous turnaround at the last minute.
All I can say is to stay vigilant.