The Great Improbability

Protest votes to explain Biden gains doesn't pass the sniff test.

There are undoubtedly a great number of you who have wondered how it is possible that Biden could amass 80 million votes nationally.

You might have pondered how a near-octogenarian who barely got the nomination for his own party could arouse the interest of voters in a way never seen before. Maybe even how by enlisting the candidate (Kamala) who dropped out early in that part of the process and was generally disliked for VP, ..could possibly help?

The fact that for most of the 2020 part of his campaign he hid in a basement? And when he did emerge to ‘spread the word,’ was to crowds that were often smaller than a turkey dinner gathering put on by PETA, ..it certainly makes for a real head scratcher.

The image on the right which is widely circulating suggests this last part very clearly. Common sense says no f’ing way is it possible.

But have no fear my doubt filled friends! As explained to you by your Republican friends and allies who are perfectly willing to allow this fraud to happen, that “55% of the vote was FOR Biden, and 45% was AGAINST Trump!”

Realistically, it seems would have to be 70-30 instead ..just to hit the shear vote number total being asserted as I hammer this thesis out. Frankly, given the 10s of thousands attending and interested in each of Trump’s rallies vs the mostly less than 100 at Biden’s (including the press), any number for Biden above 40 Million as a built in Democrat (alive, dead, for a dog, ..or rat) basis is just plain suspect.

But I digress.

Those who suggest in any way that the election is legit, based on the ‘never-Trump’ voting elsewhere aspect are failing to look at a very much larger part of such an assertion. Let’s assume that there WAS a large contingent of Trump hold outs; that while voting a RED wave in congress, would withhold support for the guy who actually drove such a wave.

Trump literally brought more people to vote for him (and to the down ticket) to make a record of his own (74 million), yet lost so many of the possible votes? It doesn’t make any sense whatsoever. Further, for a unremarkable and clearly unpopular Biden to gain 11 million more votes than the rabidly popular Obama in 2008? Even in this crazy year of 2020, it ranks in the ‘unbelievable’ category.

No way.

But there is yet another smoking gun.

If Republican voters suffering from #TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome) were to actually withhold their votes in numbers reaching 10s of millions for Donald Trump, he must have made incredible inroads to build the base otherwise. But one thing about Republican voters who don’t vote Republican, shouldn’t we ponder who else they would be inclined to support?

A vote for Biden would clearly be a vote to support abortion, 2nd amendment problems, and higher taxes, and an unfriendly business environment. Not to mention the devastating effect on the US Supreme Court which for even the most Trump adverse Republican (Who might consider themselves ‘conservative’) is vitally important.

Those folks don’t really want Biden’s produce, but instead could exclaim they did not vote for the guy who took over their party so easily!

Yes, protest votes do in-fact happen, and can explain away a number of votes, but will often find a home with a party that is closer in ideological foundation. In 2016, the protest vote against Hillary went to Dr. Jill Stein of the Green Party. Trump’s protest folks went for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate.

In 2016, five percent of the presidential vote was for neither of the two major parties in Michigan. In 2020, it was barely one percent.  The Taxpayers party candidate drew seven thousand fewer votes this year than in 2016, the Libertarian candidate 110,000 less.

Also, 2016’s vote was 14% less than 2020. And we are to believe that Trump gaining 600,000 votes demonstrates a large ‘protest swing’ in Michigan?

For the ‘protest vote’ theory to have any legs, we would have to see substantial movement forward in the third party counts. Even the smallest percentage of drop from Republicans as-described as the cause of the swing would show up as Libertarian or constitution party votes.

The gains by Biden are simply magic and have no logical explanation outside of being pure fiction. The pure impossibility of protest votes supposedly amounting to 10s of millions nationwide not dropping 10, 15, or 20 % to the third party candidates is self evident.

The totals are a lie, the Biden votes are manufactured, and everyone knows it.

You Betcha! (13)Nuh Uh.(1)

  11 comments for “The Great Improbability

  1. Corinthian Scales
    November 29, 2020 at 9:28 am

    Look fat, Associated Press says, "In Wayne, the state’s largest county and home to Detroit, Biden’s net gain over Trump outpaced Clinton’s by 32,000 votes."

    C'mon man, by hook or by crook the Kampuchea Harris administration WoN iN MiCHiGaN. /s

    You Betcha! (3)Nuh Uh.(0)
  2. Corinthian Scales
    November 29, 2020 at 10:05 am

    Oh? Did you notice a frazzled, low IQ, Heels Up Harris mention Consent Decrees during her failed Democrat Primary in video above? Why, yes, yes she did.

    I wonder what that's all about...

    You Betcha! (3)Nuh Uh.(0)
  3. Corinthian Scales
    November 29, 2020 at 10:55 am

    Morning thread👇

    https://twitter.com/MattBraynard/status/1333042159981912067

    Also, Minnesota strategy👇

    You Betcha! (3)Nuh Uh.(0)
  4. Conservative First
    November 29, 2020 at 6:14 pm

    I'll take a crack at explaining it.

    1. Population growth. The US population is not constant. In 2008, there were 304 million people; in 2020 there are 331 million, according to the census bureau. That's 27 million more people. The popular vote went from 131 million to 159 million over the same time period. That's an increase of 28 million votes. Turnout was slightly higher than 2008, but not much. Population growth almost entirely explains the change.
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1139763/number-votes-cast-us-presidential-elections/

    2. Vote by mail. Due to COVID, many states loosened their rules and promoted voting by mail. Some Secretaries of State (including SOS Benson) mailed absentee ballot applications to everyone. Their goal was to increase turnout (and help Ds), and it worked.

    3. Likeability. Who do you dislike more, Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden? For me, it's easily Hillary. Some D-leaning voters refused to vote for Hillary but decided Biden was good enough.

    4. Trump. The election was a referendum on Trump. Many people strongly support the president, and many strongly oppose him. Biden was a vessel for the latter group. Even aside from COVID, there was no reason for anyone to go to his rallies.

    By the way, there is nothing unusual about this historically. In 2000, Al Gore got 51 million votes (48.4%). Four years later, John Kerry got 59 million votes (48.3%). Kerry didn't have that many enthusiastic supporters, but the left hated George W. Bush. Ralph Nader got 2.7% in 2000, but only 0.4% in 2004. Many third party voters saw the election as a referendum on the incumbent. I suspect the same happened this year.

    You Betcha! (0)Nuh Uh.(4)
    • Jason
      November 29, 2020 at 8:40 pm

      You clearly missed the point.

      Get your head out of your ass and ask yourself ..as a conservative, hating on the president because your mind is screwed up, would you vote for the guy who supports abortion, and bring about the four f'ing horsemen of the apocalypse ..OR would you vote your protest with the taxpayer party candidate ..or Libertarian.

      EVEN IF A majority of the 'protest votes' went for Biden, there would be more in the 3rd party column.

      It didn't happen. There was vote shaving throughout the state using an algorithm, AND because that wasn't enough, they trucked in ballots in DEETROIT.

      A blind squirrel could find the nuts the size of those who cannot see it when it is in front of them. Disappointed to say the least. -1

      You Betcha! (2)Nuh Uh.(0)
      • Conservative First
        December 3, 2020 at 5:04 am

        I agree that conservatives who voted third party in 2016 mostly went for Trump this time (or stayed home). Where Trump lost ground was in upscale suburbs--Canton Township, East Grand Rapids, Portage, etc. Explain this shift however you want, that's where it happened. I suspect that it was suburban moderates, not ideological conservatives, who voted against Trump.

        If there were vote-shaving, a hand recount would prove it. The Trump campaign didn't request a recount in Michigan. They did request one in Milwaukee and Dane County, Wisconsin, which showed no vote-shaving. The Georgia recount found some human errors, but no vote shaving. I see no reason to believe that voting machines were manipulated.
        https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-falls-short-wisconsin-recount-he-paid-3-million-n1249289

        You Betcha! (0)Nuh Uh.(0)
    • Jason
      November 29, 2020 at 8:43 pm

      And by the way .. MI population grew by only 50K from 2016.

      You Betcha! (2)Nuh Uh.(0)
      • Corinthian Scales
        November 30, 2020 at 11:20 am

        Still enjoy having your pettifogging, cuckservative Time-bandit™ around?

        lmaooo

        You Betcha! (0)Nuh Uh.(0)
  5. Conservative First
    December 3, 2020 at 4:43 am

    Breaking down the turnout increase by state casts further doubt on the theory that the increase in turnout.

    Turnout was up in every state from 2016 to 2020. The turnout percentage hit a 40-year high in 44 states. Biden 2020 had a higher raw vote total over Hillary 2016 in every state that has completed its vote count. Trump's margin declined in at least 35 states, and increased in only five (AR, FL, HI, NV, UT), with 10 left to finalize their results. If the turnout increase was due to fraud, the fraud occurred all across the county, including in states that were not at all competitive.

    I calculated the percentage increases in turnout by state (CA, IL, MS, NJ, NY not included due to lack of finalized vote totals). The largest percentage increase was in Hawaii, up 34% from 2016. Hawaii is a deep blue state with no competitive statewide races. The second largest increase (32%) was in Utah, a deep red state with no competitive statewide races, and only one competitive congressional race. The top ten percentage increases are

    HI 34%
    UT 32%
    AZ 30%
    TX 26%
    ID 26%
    NV 25%
    WA 23%
    GA 21%
    TN 21%
    MT 21%

    Only three of these states (AZ, NV, GA) were swing states (four if you count Texas). The state with the smallest increase was Louisiana, which was dealing with the aftermath of a hurricane.

    Were Ds conducting massive voter fraud operations in safe red states? It seems unlikely. Note that this does not mean that there was no absentee vote fraud, only that a turnout increase, by itself, does not prove it.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1139763/number-votes-cast-us-presidential-elections/
    http://www.electproject.org/2016g
    http://www.electproject.org/2020g
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/elections/voter-turnout/

    You Betcha! (0)Nuh Uh.(1)
    • Conservative First
      December 3, 2020 at 5:10 am

      That should say:
      Breaking down the turnout increase by state casts further doubt on the theory that the increase in turnout was mainly due to fraud.

      You Betcha! (0)Nuh Uh.(0)
    • Jason
      December 3, 2020 at 10:10 am

      Nothing to see here.

      You Betcha! (0)Nuh Uh.(0)

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