President: 50.6-47.9 Biden over Trump. The raw margin was about 146,000. Close, but not quite enough.
Senate: 49.8-48.3 for Peters over John James. The raw margin was about 84,000. That’s probably too large a margin to be due to voter fraud, but any credible allegations of fraud should be investigated.
Proposal 1 (natural resources): 84% yes.
Proposal 2 (privacy): 89% yes. A rare moment of bipartisan agreement.
Supreme Court: 32% McCormick, 20% Welch for the two winning Ds. 17% Kelly, 14% Swartzle for the two Rs. Ds take a 4-3 majority on the court. This will have bad consequences.
State Board of Education: Ds took both slots, with a 45K vote margin between the second and third candidates.
University of Michigan: D Mark Bernstein was reelected. R Sarah Hubbard snagged the second slot with a 12K vote margin over the other D.
Michigan State: R Pat O’Keefe took the top slot, and D Rema Vassar took second. D incumbent Brian Mosallam took third, and R Tonya Schuitmaker was fourth.
Wayne State: R former SOS Terri Land was first, and D Sherley Stancato was second.
1. 61-37 for Bergman. If Bergman keeps his term limits pledge, this seat will be open in 2022.
2. 59-38 for Huizinga.
3. 53-47 for Meijer. Kent has trended in the wrong direction. Hopefully Meijer locks it down.
4. 65-32 for Moolenaar.
5. 42-54 for Kildee. Closer due to Trump’s appeal to blue collar workers.
6. 56-40 Upton. A better result against the far-left Hoadley. If Upton is thinking about retirement, 2022 would be a good year to do so.
7. 59-41 Walberg. This is Walberg’s best margin yet in what was once a swing district.
8. 47.3-50.9 for Slotkin. A stronger candidate could have won. This district will likely change significantly in redistricting.
9. 38-58 for Andy Levin.
10. 66-34 for McClain.
11. 47.8-50.2 for Stevens. Esshaki did well under the circumstances. This district probably gets chopped up in redistricting.
12. 31-66 for Debbie Dingell.
13. 19-78 for Tlaib.
14. 19-79 for Lawrence.
State house. Republicans lost two seats and picked up two, for no net change. The majority is now 58-52. Conservative Jason Wentworth will be the new speaker.
3-9. Rs got 2-7% in the all-Detroit districts.
13. 42-58 for Tullio Liberati. This district might be worth contesting in the future.
19. 49.8-50.2 for Pohutski (258 votes). The same margin as in 2018. Rs should contest this again.
20. 45-55 for Koleszar. This upscale suburban district was lost in 2018.
23. 47.5-52.5 for Camilleri. This district must be contested in 2022, when it will be open.
25. 47-53 for Shannon. This could have been won with a better candidate.
31. 44-56 for Sowerby. This could be worth more effort in the future.
38. 48.4-51.6 for Breen. LOSS in an open suburban seat that was close in 2018.
39. 52-47 for Berman against a far-left candidate. This was heavily targeted by Ds.
40. 42-58 for Manoogian. This upscale suburban district swung hard in 2018 after long being safe R.
41. 45-55 for Kuppa. Lost in 2018, but may be worth contesting again.
43. 60-40 for Schroeder. Some pundits absurdly thought this would be close.
44. 60-40 for Maddock.
45. 52.3-47.7 for Tisdel. Close win in a district heavily targeted by Ds.
48. 50.5-49.5 for David Martin. PICKUP in a blue collar suburban Flint district against far-left incumbent Sheryl Kennedy.
50. 46-54 for Sneller. Close due to Trump performing well in suburban Flint.
59. 64-36 for Carra. Possibly the most conservative new member.
60. 25-75 for Rogers. She previously lost the 61st in 2006 and 2008.
61. 46-54 for Morse. LOSS in an open suburban seat that was close in 2018.
62. 48.7-51.3 for Haadsma. Another close loss for Dave Morgan.
63. 61-36 for Matt Hall.
66. 59-41 for Beth Griffin. The D here got some hype, but it wasn’t close.
67. 46-54 for Hope. This district is sometimes close, but never close enough.
71. 47.3-51.2 for Witwer. This district was lost in 2018.
72. 55-45 for Steven Johnson.
73. 57-42 for Posthumus. MIRS had a poll that showed a 1 point race.
79. 57-43 for Wendzel. The D candidate got a lot of hype here.
91. 60-40 for VanWoerkem. Big win in a former swing district.
96. 57-43 for Timothy Beson. PICKUP in a blue collar Bay County against an incumbent who renounced his pro-life position.
98. 59-41 for Annette Glenn. Much bigger margin than in 2018, when utilities spent heavily.
99. 61-37 for Hauck.
104. 51-47 for John Roth. Better candidate than the scandal-plagued incumbent.
109. 42-57 for Cambensy. This district may be worth targeting when open.
110. 58-41 for Markkanen. This was a surprise pickup in 2018.
In 2022, Rs should target districts 19, 23, 25, 38, 50, 62, and 71. Of course, there will be a new district map, so some district boundaries or numbers will change.
My ratings turned out to be pretty accurate. Every race I had at likely or safe for a party was won by that party. The only lean races I missed were house 48 and 96. My state house tossups had margins of 0.4, 3.2, 5, 8, and 4. My lean R races had margins from 4 to 24. My lean D races had margins of 10, 6, -1, 1, and -14. The closest margin in a race I had at safe was 5 (house 23). My lean ratings for Congress had margins of 6, 16, 3.6.