Conservative First

Michigan Politics

2014 ACU Michigan Legislature Ratings

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The American Conservative Union has long been the premier organization rating members of Congress on how conservative their voting records are.  Recently, ACU began rating state legislators on their voting records, and it just released its third ratings of the Michigan state legislature.  I will summarize the relevant information here.

ACU State Ratings 2014–MI

ACU rated 12 house votes and 13 senate votes from 2013 and 2014.  Ten of the bills are the same for both halves of the legislature. The most common topics for the state house votes were taxes (3 votes), spending (3), and regulation (3).  The most common topic for the state senate votes were taxes (4 votes) and spending (4).

ACU Michigan state senate ratings 2013/2014:
100%: Pavlov, Emmons, Moolenaar
92%: Colbeck, Brandenberg, Rocca, Robertson, Proos, Jones, Schuitmaker, Green, Booher
85%: Marleau, Hune, Jansen, Hildenbrand, Meekhof
77%: Pappageorge, Kowall, Caswell, Richardville, Nofs, Kahn, Hansen, Walker, Casperson
62%: Hunter
31-33%: Hopgood, Andersen, Ananich
23%: Bieda
15-17%: Young, Johnson, Gregory, Warren, Whitmer
8-9%: Hood, Smith

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Michigan, Michigan Politics, Opinion

Is Fred Upton More Conservative?

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One of the arguments used by conservative supporters of Congressman Fred Upton is that Upton is more conservative now than he used to be.  Is there any merit to this argument?

To analyze this claim, we consider ratings issued by conservative groups over the years.  This will make it easy to spot any trend.

Of course, the usual caveats apply.  These ratings are calculated based on a selection of votes.  The votes rated each year are different, but these groups use fairly consistent standards that allow comparison over time.

First up is American Conservative Union (ACU), which has been rating Congress since the 1970s.  Their ratings for Upton’s entire tenure are graphed below.

A linear regression line is graphed along with the data.  As you can see, the line is virtually flat, indicating no substantial change.  There is actually a very slight decrease over time.

Upton’s two best ratings occurred in 2002 and 2010, both of which were years when Upton received serious primary challenges from the right.

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Michigan Politics

Senate Passes Prevailing Wage Repeal

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The state senate passed a repeal of the prevailing wage law, which forces the government to overpay for construction projects.  The bill passed 22-15, with five Republicans voting no.

Five Republicans – Sens. Mike Kowall of White Lake, Tom Casperson of Escanaba, Mike Nofs of Battle Creek, Tory Rocca of Sterling Heights and Dale Zorn of Ida – joined all the Democrats in opposing the three bills.

Many of them previously opposed Right to Work.

Kowall – supported Right to Work – term-limited in 2018
Casperson – opposed Right to Work – term-limited in 2018
Nofs – opposed Right to Work – term-limited in 2018
Rocca – opposed Right to Work – term-limited in 2018
Zorn – opposed Right to Work (in the state house) – up for re-election in 2018

Notably, Mike Green and Ken Horn, who voted against Right to Work, voted for this bill.

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Michigan Politics

Race Hoax at Kalamazoo College

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What’s going on at Kalamazoo College?  K College is a far left elite private college just west of downtown Kalamazoo.  It was originally founded as a Baptist college, but that influence is long gone, replaces by progressivism, social justice, gay rights, anti-racism, and all the trendy cultural Marxism common on campus.

Kalamazoo College students start #UnsafeAtK social media campaign, say they feel threatened
Meeting about minority student safety at Kalamazoo College draws more than 100 students
Kalamazoo College officials address #UnsafeAtK social media campaign in campus-wide email
Security increased at Kalamazoo College after online threat to ‘start systematically executing faculty’
‘Don’t let them win’: Solidarity sought at Kalamazoo College in aftermath of online shooting threat
Kalamazoo College threats: Investigators hope Internet trail will lead them to suspect
Despite threat, Kalamazoo College students who have experienced racism push for intercultural center
Kalamazoo College students rally over concerns about racism and marginalization, push for intercultural center

The current controversy involves a student who is a gun rights activist.  He has advocated for open carry on K’s campus, a noble but hopeless cause at an extremely left-wing private college.  In late February, he asked the student government for support for this cause.  They predictably declined, and launched a flurry of insults, as reported by Campus Reform.

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Michigan Politics

Where Did Lorence Wenke’s Votes Come From?

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The closest state legislative race in Michigan in 2014 was in state senate district 20, which is coterminous with Kalamazoo County. The district was vacated by Republican senator Tonya Schuitmaker, who ran for reelection in a neighboring district due to redistricting.

The Republican candidate was 61st district state rep Margaret O’Brien of Portage. The democrat candidate was 60th district state rep Sean McCann of Kalamazoo. Both are fairly typical representatives of their parties.

Aside from the closeness of the race, there was another complicating factor. Former state rep Lorence Wenke ran as a Libertarian after having originally filed to run in the Republican primary. Wenke was a moderate Republican state rep 2002-2008. He had an eclectic platform emphasizing support for gay rights and support for cutting government employee benefits. In the course of the campaign, he announced support for several tax increases and other un-libertarian policies.

The election results, after a recount, were

O’Brien 36645 (45.6%)
McCann 36584 (45.5%)
Wenke 7171 (8.9%)

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Michigan Politics

Conservatives Win in November

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Republicans won a big victory in November in Michigan. They held all their statewide offices and Congressional seats. They also held all their current state legislative seats, gaining one in the Senate and four in the House. They now have at 27-11 supermajority in the Senate and a 63-47 majority in the House. More importantly, conservatives gained seats within the Republican caucus. All eight candidates endorsed by Madison Project Michigan won in November. Congratulations to Pat Colbeck, Lana Theis, Jim Runestad, Jason Sheppard, Tom Barrett, Cindy Gamrat, Gary Glenn, and Triston Cole.

One key test of how conservative the new Republican caucuses are is the leadership elections held two days after the election. The new Senate majority leader will be Arlan Meekhof, who is more conservative than previous leader Randy Richardville. The new Speaker of the House will be Kevin Cotter, the more conservative of the two candidates, who opposed Medicaid expansion and Common Core. This victory was made possible thanks to conservatives winning key primaries.

Of course, we can’t rest easy. The legislature may still try to raise gas taxes or discriminate against Christian businesses. Candidates who ran as conservatives may be tempted to ‘grow in office’ or compromise for the sake of political expediency. We will do our best to hold them accountable if they do.

Thanks to everyone who supported the Madison Project Michigan! We hope that you will support our efforts again in 2016.

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Michigan Politics

Michigan 2014 Election Results

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Governor: 51-47 for Rick Snyder. Much closer than his blowout in 2010, but good enough for a second term.

Senate: 41-55 for Gary Peters. Peters ran a good campaign. Land was a disaster. Maybe someday the Michigan GOP will find a good Senate candidate.

AG: 52-44 for Bill Schuette. Schuette for Governor in 2018!

SOS: 54-43 for Ruth Johnson over a token opponent. Perhaps Ruth will challenge Stabenow in 2018.
The two referenda on wolf hunting both failed, 55-45 and 64-36. Only the opponents of wolf hunting spent money here.

Supreme Court was 32-29-21-14 for Zahra (R,I) and Bernstein (D), who spent 2 million of his own money to win this seat. David Viviano won the partial term 62-29.

Education Boards. Republicans appear to have picked a seat on the MSU board with Melanie Foster, but lost all the other ed board seats. This is very disappointing considering the circumstances. Third party candidates probably cost us several seats here.

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Michigan Politics

Lorence Wenke: Not Libertarian

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Back in May, Lorence Wenke switched from Republican to Libertarian.  He claims that this move was based in principle, not political convenience.  So how well do his views line up with libertarianism?

Citing GOP opposition to gay rights, state Senate candidate Lorence Wenke leaves Republican Party
State Senate hopeful Lorence Wenke says he plans to help build Libertarian Party
Libertarian Lorence Wenke talks split from GOP, minimum wage during Kalamazoo Gazette Editorial Board interview
Election 2014: Libertarian Party looks to make waves in Kalamazoo County after long dormancy

Wenke said he would support expanding the Elliott-Larsen Civil Rights Act to include protections for LGBT citizens, adding that if no one else introduced the bill, he would do so.

Anti-discrimination laws violate freedom of association, and there is a long libertarian tradition opposing them.

How about the basic free market position of opposing the minimum wage?

Wenke, the owner of Wenke Greenhouses in Comstock Township, said he would have voted yes on the minimum wage increase.

He said the increase will have a significant impact on the payroll businesses, but added that he believes the working poor of the community deserve the raise.

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Michigan Politics

Michigan State House Races

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Cross-posted at The Western Right, Right Michigan, and Red Racing Horses.

All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives will be up for election in November. Republicans currently hold a 59-51 majority, following a 63-47 majority after 2010. There are 40 open seats, 21 held by Republicans and 19 held by democrats.  There are 30 open due to term-limits and 10 just seeking another office.

Republicans gained one new seat (73) and one existing seat (39) due to redistricting, but also lost one existing seat (55) in 2012.  They also lost five incumbents (52, 71, 84, 91, 110), not counting party-switcher Roy Schmidt (76).  They could have won several more seats with a more effective redistricting plan.

Democrats want to take back the state house, but face a difficult playing field.  Of the Republican-held open seats, only 56 and 61 are competitive.  They will try to defeat some Republican incumbents, but it is not clear how they will beat incumbents this year that they couldn’t defeat in 2012.

Meanwhile, Republicans will seek to gain seats.  The best opportunity is the open 84, which was lost due to scandal in 2012.  There are two lean dem open seats (21, 62) that may be competitive.  Republicans will also try to defeat several incumbents who picked up seats in 2012 (25, 71, 91).

State house fundraising is analyzed in the following articles.

Michigan State House Fundraising

Michigan Post-primary Fundraising Reports

Michigan Pre-general Fundraising Reports

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Michigan Politics

Michigan Pre-General Fundraising Reports

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The deadline for pre-general campaign finance reports for the Michigan state legislature was October 24.  The following details the total amount raised in competitive general elections, and cash on hand (COH) in competitive general elections.  Ratings for the races are included.

Governor (Lean R)
R: Rick Snyder 12.5M (1.8M COH)
D: Mark Schauer (1.4M COH)

Lieutenant Governor:
R: Brian Calley 401K (30K COH)
D: Lisa Brown waiver

Attorney General (Lean R)
R: Bill Schuette 3.7M (1.1M COH)
D: Mark Totten 671K (105K COH)

Secretary of State (Likely R)
R: Ruth Johnson 895K (44K COH)
D: Godfrey Dillard  121K (50K COH)

Supreme Court (Likely R/Lean D)
R: Brian Zahra 909K (306K COH)
R: James Robert Redford  393K (153K COH)
D: Richard Bernstein 2.1M (885K COH)
D: William Murphy  246K (124K COH)

Supreme Court (partial term) Safe R
R: David Viviano 855K (296K COH)
D: Deborah Thomas  121K (50K COH)

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