Cross-posted at The Western Right, Right Michigan, and Red Racing Horses.
All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives will be up for election in November. Republicans currently hold a 59-51 majority, following a 63-47 majority after 2010. There are 40 open seats, 21 held by Republicans and 19 held by democrats. There are 30 open due to term-limits and 10 just seeking another office.
Republicans gained one new seat (73) and one existing seat (39) due to redistricting, but also lost one existing seat (55) in 2012. They also lost five incumbents (52, 71, 84, 91, 110), not counting party-switcher Roy Schmidt (76). They could have won several more seats with a more effective redistricting plan.
Democrats want to take back the state house, but face a difficult playing field. Of the Republican-held open seats, only 56 and 61 are competitive. They will try to defeat some Republican incumbents, but it is not clear how they will beat incumbents this year that they couldn’t defeat in 2012.
Meanwhile, Republicans will seek to gain seats. The best opportunity is the open 84, which was lost due to scandal in 2012. There are two lean dem open seats (21, 62) that may be competitive. Republicans will also try to defeat several incumbents who picked up seats in 2012 (25, 71, 91).
State house fundraising is analyzed in the following articles.
Michigan State House Fundraising
Michigan Post-primary Fundraising Reports
Michigan Pre-general Fundraising Reports
The following lists district number, current incumbent, geographic description, 2012 state house result, 2012 Romney %, and political rating. I did not use ‘likely’ in the ratings. Candidates are labeled as establishment (E), Tea Party (T), and solidly conservative (C), when these labels clearly apply.
1. (Brian Banks) [Detroit] 29-71, 23.5%, Safe D
Brian Banks won the 2012 democrat primary before his long criminal record and repeated failure to pay rent (he was kicked out of his campaign office) was exposed. He defeated six primary challengers, including Rebecca Thompson, who significantly outraised him.
2. (Alberta Tinsley Talibi) [Detroit] 26-72, 23.8%, Safe D
3. (OPEN-John Olumba) [Detroit] 3-96, 1.6%, Safe D
4. (Rose Robinson) [Detroit] 5-95, 3.4%, Safe D
5. (OPEN-Fred Durhal) [Detroit] 6-94, 2.7%, Safe D
6. (OPEN-Rashida Tlaib) [Detroit] 5-92, 5.3%, Safe D
7. (Thomas Stallworth) [Detroit] 2-98, 0.9%, Safe D
8. (OPEN-David Nathan) [Detroit] 3-97, 2%, Safe D
9. (Harvey Santana) [Detroit] 5-95, 3.3%, Safe D
10. (OPEN-Phil Cavanaugh) [Detroit] 14-86, 16.4%, Safe D
11. (OPEN-David Knezek) [Inkster, Garden City] 28-72, 29.3%, Safe D
12. (OPEN-Douglas Geiss) [Taylor, Romulus] 25-75, 29.5%, Safe D
13. (OPEN-Andrew Kandrevas) [Southgate, Allen Park, Dearborn Heights] 35-65, 40.3%, Safe D
14. (Paul Clemente) [Riverview, Wyandotte, Lincoln Park, Melvindale] 26-71, 34.9%, Safe D
15. (George Darany) [Dearborn] 25-75, 33.5%, Safe D
16. (Robert Kosowski) [Westland, Wayne] 28-68, 33.3%, Safe D
17. (Bill Lavoy) [N Monroe, Sumpter, Huron] 39-61, 45.3%, Safe D
18. (Sarah Roberts) [St. Clair Shores, Eastpointe] 34-64, 40.7%, Safe D
19. (OPEN-John Walsh) [Livonia] 60-40, 52%, Safe R
Laura Cox (E), a Wayne County Commissioner and wife of former Attorney General Mike Cox, defeated Ken Crider in the primary.
20. (Kurt Heise) [Plymouth, Northville] 56-44, 51.8%, Safe R
21. (OPEN-Dian Slavens) [Canton, Van Buren] 38-62, 43.3%, Lean D
Carol Fausonne has a chance to pick up this open seat, but it could have been drawn much better if it included all of Canton. Kristy Pagan won the dem primary.
22. (OPEN-Harold Haugh) [Roseville, E Warren] 30-70, 36.2%, Safe D
23. (Pat Somerville) [SE Wayne] 50.5-49.5, 47.5%, Lean R
In 2012, Pat Summerville (C) was narrowly reelected in the most dem seat held by a Republican. He is probably a modest favorite this time. Two dems are competing to face him.
24. (Anthony Forlini) [Harrison, N Clinton, SW Macomb] 54.7-45.3, Safe R
25. (Henry Yanez) [E Sterling Heights, NC Warren] 48.6-51.4, 47.8%, Lean D
Nick Hawatmeh will try to beat dem Henry Yanez, who won a new open seat in 2012 which could have been much better drawn.
26. (Jim Townsend) [Royal Oak, Madison Heights] 36-60, 40.3%, Safe D
27. (OPEN-Ellen Cogen Lipton) [Oak Park, Ferndale, Hazel Park] 20-76, 24.8%, Safe D
28. (OPEN-Jon Switalski) [W Warren, Center Line] 21-79, 35.8%, Safe D
29. (Tim Greimel) [Pontiac, Auburn Hills, Orchard Lake] 23-77, 23.9%, Safe D
30. (Jeff Farrington) [W Sterling Heights, Utica, SE Shelby] 53.3-46.7, 51.5%, Safe R
Bo Karpinsky won the dem nomination over 2012 nominee Joseph Bogdan, and will face Jeff Farrington.
31. (Marilyn Lane) [S Clinton, Fraser, Mt. Clemens] 34-62, 41.8%, Safe D
32. (Andrea LaFontaine) [Chesterfield, C St. Clair] 59-41, 53.9%, Safe R
33. (Ken Goike) [NE Macomb, Macomb Twp.] 62-38, 56.2%, Safe R
34. (OPEN-Woodrow Stanley) [Flint] 13-87, 8.3%, Safe D
35. (OPEN-Rudy Hobbs) [Southfield] 17-83, 17.6%, Safe D
36. (OPEN-Pete Lund) [Shelby, Washington, Bruce] 64-36, 61%, Safe R
Lawyer Peter Lucido won a bitter, expensive primary for this seat over Stan Grot (C).
37. (OPEN-Vicki Barnett) [Farmington] 38-62, 40.3%, Safe D
38. (OPEN-Hugh Crawford) [Novi, Lyon] 59-41, 53.6%, Safe R
Hugh Crawford’s wife Kathy Crawford (E), who is also an Oakland County Commissioner, defeated retired pastor Dan Lauffer (T).
39. (Klint Kesto) [W West Bloomfield, Commerce, Wixom] 53.3-46.7, 51.5%, Lean R
Klint Kesto (E), the surprise primary winner in 2012, defeated Tea Party leader Deb O’Hagan (T) in the primary. He faces dem Sandy Colvin for this seat which Kesto picked up in 2012.
40. (Michael McCready) [Bloomfield, Birmingham, E West Bloomfield] 57-41, 52.8%, Safe R
41. (Martin Howrylak) [Troy, Clawson] 50.5-49.5, 51.6%, Lean R
Martin Howrylak (C) faces a rematch with Mary Kerwin, who he barely beat by 1% in 2012.
42. (OPEN-Bill Rogers) [SE Livingston] 63-33, 60.2%, Safe R
Former Livingston GOP chairwoman Lana Theis (C), won a clear primary victory over several candidates, including fake Republican Rich Perlberg.
43. (OPEN-Gail Haines) [Waterford, Independence] 66-34, 54.8%, Lean R
Republican Jim Tedder won a crowded primary here. He faces former Waterford supervisor Dennis Ritter.
44. (OPEN-Eileen Kowall) [Springfield, White Lake, Highland, Milford] 63-33, 59.1%, Safe R
Oakland County Commissioner Jim Runestad (C) was the favorite of both the Tea Party and establishment, and narrowly won the primary over moderate Liz Fessler Smith and two others.
45. (OPEN-Tom McMillin) [Rochester, S Oakland Twp] 56-44, 55.9%, Safe R
Michael Webber narrowly won the primary over Mark Avery here.
46. (Bradford Jacobsen) [NE Oakland] 64-36, 60.1%, Safe R
Bradford Jacobsen defeated a tough primary challenge by John Reilly (C).
47. (OPEN-Cindy Denby) [N Livingston] 64-32, 62.5%, Safe R
Township supervisor Henry Vaupel narrowly defeated former school board member Wendy Day (T) and Howell Mayor Phil Campbell (C) in the primary.
48. (Pam Faris) [NE Genesee] 36-64, 39.8%, Safe D
49. (Phil Phelps) [Flint Twp., Mt. Morris, SW Flint] 25-75, 28.8%, Safe D
50. (Charles Smiley) [Burton, Grand Blanc, Mundy] 39-61, 42.7%, Safe D
51. (Joe Graves) [W Genesee, Fenton, NW Oakland] 54.3-45.7, 53.1%, Safe R
52. (Gretchen Driskell) [W Washtenaw] 47-53, 47.5%, Safe D
Gretchen Driskell beat Mark Ouimet by 6% in 2012. John Hochstetler is on the ballot, but not running a serious campaign.
53. (Jeff Irwin) [Ann Arbor] 19-81, 19.5%, Safe D
54. (David Rutledge) [Ypsilanti] 23-77, 23.8%, Safe D
55. (Adam Zemke) [Pittsfield, NE Ann Arbor, York, Augusta] 32-65, 31.6%, Safe D
56. (OPEN-Dale Zorn) [S Monroe] 58-42, 50.6%, Lean R
Republicans Jason Sheppard (C) defeated Irma Kubiske in the primary, and will face dem Tom Redmond for the seat of Dale Zorn, who is running for state senate. There is also a Constitution Party candidate running as a spoiler.
57. (Nancy Jenkins) [Lenawee] 52.5-47.5, 49.9%, Lean R
Nancy Jenkins, who was reelected by 5% in 2012, will face dem Sharon Wimple.
58. (OPEN-Ken Kurtz) [Branch, Hillsdale] 70-30, 60.1%, Safe R
Businessman Eric Leutheuser won a crowded primary in this open seat.
59. (OPEN-Matt Lori) [St. Joseph, E Cass] 62-38, 54.7%, Safe R
Conservative teacher Aaron Miller won a surprise victory over better-funded candidates John Bippus (C), Roger Rathburn, and Bob Sills in the primary.
60. (OPEN-Sean McCann) [Kalamazoo, Kalamazoo Twp.] 26-74, 26.8%, Safe D
Gay progressive campaign strategist Jon Hoadley defeated Kalamazoo County Commissioner David Buskirk, an old-school union dem, and black Kalamazoo Township Trustee Patricia Goodacre in the primary.
61. (OPEN-Margaret O’Brien) [Portage, Oshtemo, Texas, Schoolcraft, Prairie Ronde] 58-42, 49.1%, Tossup
Kalamazoo County commissioner Brandt Iden (E) defeated Phil Stinchcomb (C) in the primary. Mlive exposed a lie on his questionaire, which is making the race competitive. Democrat pastor John Fisher and Libertarian Michael Stampfler are also running.
62. (OPEN-Kate Segal) [Battle Creek, Albion, N Calhoun] 42-58, 43.8%, Lean D
Doctor John Bizon defeated county commissioner Art Kale for the GOP nomination. Battle Creek city commissioner Andy Helmboldt won the dem nomination over two other candidates. The district leans dem, but Bizon has very strong fundraising.
63. (OPEN-Jase Bolger) [E Kalamazoo, S Calhoun] 50.9-49.1, 54.6%, Safe R
Moderate Kalamazoo County Commissioner David Maturen (E) defeated Marshall school board president Vic Potter in the primary for the seat of Speaker Jase Bolger. Dem Bill Farmer, who almost upset Bolger in 2012 due to the Roy Schmidt controversy, will run again.
64. (Earl Poleski) [Jackson city, W Jackson] 56-44, 51.2%, Safe R
65. (OPEN-Mike Shirkey) [N Jackson, SE Eaton] 57-43, 53.4%, Safe R
Brett Roberts won a six-candidate primary. The dem candidate, Bonnie Johnson, has raised little.
66. (Aric Nesbitt) [Van Buren, Cooper, Alamo, Parchment] 59-41, 49.7%, Safe R
Dem school board member Annie Brown has raised a lot in this race, but it’s hard to see her come close in a district Nesbitt won easily in 2012.
67. (Tom Cochran) [S Ingham] 44-56, 44.8%, Safe D
68. (Andy Schor) [Lansing] 23-77, 24.6%, Safe D
69. (Sam Singh) [East Lansing, Meridian] 35-65, 35.9%, Safe D
70. (Rick Outman) [Montcalm, N Gratiot] 54.5-45.5, 52.6%, Safe R
71. (Theresa Abed) [Eaton] 46.6-53.4, 47.3%, Tossup
Dem Theresa Abed upset Deb Schaunessy by 7% in 2012. She faces Iraq war veteran Tom Barrett (C) in this hotly contested seat.
72. (Ken Yonker) [Kentwood, Gaines, NE Allegan] 59-38, 56.3%, Safe R
Rep. Yonker (E) defeated retired veteran Gabe Hudson (T) in the primary.
73. (OPEN-Peter MacGregor) [Grand Rapids Twp, Plainfield, NE Kent] 64-32, 60.9%, Safe R
Grand Rapids Township Treasurer Chris Afendoulis won a clear victory in a seven-candidate primary.
74. (Rob Verhuelen) [Grandville, Walker, Alpine, NW Kent] 66-34, 60.4%, Safe R
75. (Brandon Dillon) [central Grand Rapids] 24-76, 23.8%, Safe D
76. (Winnie Brinks) [peripheral Grand Rapids] 39-52, 44.2%, Lean D
Donijo DeJonge (E) defeated Keith Allard (C) in the primary, and faces dem Winnie Brinks, who beat scandal-tainted dem-turned-R Roy Schmidt in 2012.
77. (Thomas Hooker) [Wyoming, Byron] 60-36, 58.3%, Safe R
78. (Dave Pagel) [S Berrien, SW Cass] 61-39, 56.1%, Safe R
Rep. Pagel (E) easily defeated Jim Walker (T) in the primary.
79. (Al Pscholka) [N Berrien] 52.8-45.7, 51.5%, Safe R
Moderate state rep. Al Pscholka (E) defeated nurse Cindy Duran (T) in the primary.
80. (OPEN-Bob Genetski) [Allegan] 62-38, 57.6%, Safe R
Tea Party leader Cindy Gamrat (T) defeated Mary Whiteford (E) and two others in the primary for this conservative district.
81. (Dan Lauwers) [NW, E St. Clair] 53.8-46.2, 55%, Safe R
82. (OPEN-Kevin Daley) [Lapeer] 59-41, 55.1%, Safe R
Todd Courser (T), who almost was elected MIGOP chairman in 2013, defeated Jan Peabody (E) and two other Republican candidates in the primary.
83. (Paul Muxlow) [Sanilac, Port Huron] 56-44, 52.5%, Safe R
84. (OPEN-Terry Brown) [Tuscola, Huron] 38-53, 55.6%, Lean R
Edward Canfield won an eight-candidate primary here over former rep Kurt Damrow and Dan Grimshaw, who defeated Damrow in the 2012 primary. This is the best chance for Republicans to pick up a seat. Dem state rep Terry Brown (2006-2010, 2012-2014) is term-limited and running for state senate. The dem candidate is Huron county commissioner David Jaroch.
85. (Ben Glardon) [Shiawassee, W Saginaw] 54-40, 48.9%, Lean R
Glardon has won this district twice before, but faces a vigorous challenge from dem Annie Braidwood.
86. (Lisa Posthumus Lyons) [SE Kent, N Ionia] 70-30, 63%, Safe R
Rep. Lyons (E) defeated Angela Rigas (T) in the primary.
87. (Mike Callton) [Barry, S Ionia] 62-35, 58.7%, Safe R
88. (Roger Victory) [NE Ottawa] 87-0, 72.9%, Safe R
89. (Amanda Price) [W Ottawa] 66-34, 61.6%, Safe R
Rep. Price (E) easily defeated Matt Wiedenhoeft (T).
90. (Joseph Haveman) [Holland] 100-0, 66.5%, Safe R
Former Pete Hoekstra staffer Daniela Garcia (E) defeated Geoff Haveman (T), and two others.
91. (Collene Lamonte) [S, W Muskegon] 47.3-48.1, 48.5%, Tossup
Former state rep. Holly Hughes, who was defeated by 0.8% by dem Colleen LaMonte in 2012, will seek a rematch. There is an independant conservative candidate Alan Jager running.
92. (Marcia Hovey Wright) [Muskegon city] 27-73, 31.3%, Safe D
93. (Tom Leonard) [S Gratiot, Clinton] 57-43, 52.9%, Safe R
94. (Tim Kelly) [Saginaw Twp, E Saginaw] 56-44, 55.7%, Safe R
95. (OPEN-Stacy Erwin Oakes) [Saginaw city] 22-78, 24.8%, Safe D
96. (Charles Brunner) [Bay] 31-69, 45.3%, Safe D
97. (Joel Johnson) [Arenac, Gladwin, Clare, E Osceola] 62-38, 53.2%, Lean R
Johnson faces dem Mark Lightfoot.
98. (OPEN-Jim Stamas) [C Midland, N Bay] 59-41, 56%, Safe R
Gary Glenn (T), a conservative activist supporting Right to Work and traditional marriage narrowly defeated Karl Ieuter (E) in an expensive and hotly contested primary. Joan Brausch is the dem candidate.
99. (Kevin Cotter) [Isabella, W Midland] 57-43, 48.1%, Lean R
Cotter faces a vigorous challenge from dem Bryan Mielke in a district he won twice before.
100. (Jon Bumstead) [Newaygo, Oceana, Lake] 62-38, 55.5%, Safe R
101. (Ray Franz) [Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Mason] 51-49, 50.7%, Tossup
Ray Franz (C), who was reelected by 2% in 2012, will seek a final term against dem Tom Stobie, who outraised him so far.
102. (Phil Potvin) [Wexford, W Osceola, Mecosta] 54.8-45.2, 56.3%, Safe R
103. (Bruce Rendon) [Kalkaska, Crawford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw] 52.8-47.2, 55.9%, Safe R
104. (OPEN-Wayne Schmidt) [Grand Traverse] 57-43, 55.4%, Safe R
Moderate Larry Inman narrowly won an eight-candidate primary.
105. (OPEN-Greg MacMaster) [Antrim, Charlevoix, Otsego, Montmorency, Oscoda] 67-33, 58.5%, Safe R
Triston Cole, a farmer who was the runner-up four years ago, easily won the primary here.
106. (Peter Petallia) [E Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Alpena, Alcona, Iosco] 52.2-45.3, 53.6%, Safe R
Peter Pettalia, who was reelected by 7% in 2012, will seek a final term. The dem candidate is Robert Kennedy.
107. (Frank Foster) [Emmet, Mackinac, Chippewa, N Cheboygan] 58-42, 55.5%, Safe R
Rep. Foster (E) was defeated by Lee Chatfield (T), who has very strong fundraising, due to Foster’s support of Medicaid expansion, Common Core, and gay rights.
108. (Ed McBroom) [Delta, Menominee, Dickinson] 54.6-45.4, 54.6%, Safe R
109. (John Kivela) [Marquette, Alger, Schoolcraft, Luce] 42-58, 45.4%, Safe D
110. (Scott Dianda) [W Upper Peninsula] 48.4-51.6, 51.6%, Safe D
Scott Dianda, a fairly conservative dem who beat Matt Huuki by 3% in 2012, is safe against Bob Michaels.
Safe D: 44
Lean D: 4
Lean R: 11
Safe R: 47
Nice rundown of these races! The coverage of the local races is so often lacking or hard to find. Much appreciated. Shame that most of them are all but decided in advance.
71st District seems more like a "Lean R". Not sure what happened, but I believe Abed was the first Dem in ~ half a century to have the slot.
I'm also seeing a bit more Barrett signs in lawns than Abed signs. With that said, seems like she's been running more TV and radio spots than Tom.