Slotkin's Motives

Some folks .. even on the right had a concern with Mike Roger’s former National Security influence and connections. To…

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2018 Michigan Gubernatorial Race, Democrats, Michigan, Michigan Politics

Extremist Democrat Candidate For Governor Agrees With Abolishing ICE

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They’re going to have to own this nonsense.

Tomorrow she might say something very different to salvage any middle of the road Dems, but folks have been wising up to the extremist views held by Democrat candidates. Gretchen Whitmer bobble-heads her agreement to abolishing our immigration enforcement in this video.

“I think we need a governor, who will stand up to the federal government” she says.  As governor, she COULD make enforcement of our borders problematic.

Thoughts?

 

 

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Michigan Politics

Lessons from the 2018 Primary Elections

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What can we learn from the 2018 primary elections? This article explains what the winning candidates had in common. I wrote similar articles in 2014 and 2016.

They don’t call it the establishment for nothing Establishment candidates won virtually all state senate races and most state house races. They have the inside track on fundraising, endorsements, and organization.

The moderate wing of the party was hammered, with David Maturen losing renomination, and Kathy Crawford narrowly surviving.  Daniela Garcia, Dave Pagel, Brett Roberts, Mike Callton, and Joe Haveman lost state senate primaries.  Only Chris Afendoulis and Mike McCready won primaries, advancing to competitive generals.

Some solid conservatives won primaries (Jim Runestad, Lana Theis, Tom Barrett), while others lost (Bob Genetski, Gary Glenn, and Ray Franz).  The most common winners were mainstream conservatives like Pete Lucido, Ruth Johnson, John Bizon, Kim LaSata, Aric Nesbitt, Roger Victory, Rick Outman, Jon Bumstead, and Curt VanderWall.  A similar pattern held in for state house nominations.

Experience counts Elected experience is valuable for winning candidates. All of the Republican state senate nominees were previously state representatives. State house winners Doug Tietz, Sarah Lightner, and Christine Barnes have all been elected to county commissions.

Incumbency Matters All but one incumbent Republican won renomination. Beating an incumbent in a primary is very hard. The one exception this year is Matt Hall, who spent more than 200K of his own money to defeat David Maturen.  The only other conservative challengers who beat a Republican incumbent in recent years are Tim Walberg in 2006 and Lee Chatfield in 2014. Certainly many incumbents deserve primary challenges, but conservatives have limited resources. Winning an open seat is much easier than beating an incumbent. Politicians can still be held to account when they run for other offices, as with the moderates listed above.  There are still some benefits to primary challenges, though, as they may encourage the incumbent to vote better for awhile and may help the challenger to win an open seat later.

If at first you don’t succeed  David Wolkinson and Gary Eisen both finished second in 2012 state house primaries.  This time, they won their primaries.  Matt Maddock lost a close primary for state senate in 2014, but won a big victory for state house this time.  Candidates who lost this time should look for opportunities to run again in the future.

Build a brand  David Wolkinson, Doug Tietz, Matt Maddock, Matt Hall, and Annette Glenn are known across Michigan for advocating conservative causes.  This can provide a larger fundraising base to tap when you run for office.

Don’t split the vote Conservatives did much better this year than in past years. Senate district 12 is one example where a conservative candidate likely lost due to vote splitting. Conservatives may have benefited from splits in the establishment in senate districts 30 and house districts 40 and 81.

Money doesn’t buy elections  Self-funding candidates have a bad electoral track record.  Shri Thanedar, Jim Himes, Sandy Pensler all self-funded statewide bids and lost.  Self-funder Lena Epstein did win the nomination in MI-11.

Money is essential Money does not guarantee victory, but it is essential to get your message out. This is particularly true in local elections, which are often decided by name recognition. Look at how much winning conservative candidates raised.
Wolkinson 69K
Tietz 67K
Maddock 98K
Hall 209K
Meerman 30K
Glenn 52K

The candidate who raised the most money won in 13 of 21 contested primaries in open Republican seats (fewer than in past cycles). I have written before that the minimum amount needed to be a credible candidate is $30,000. Only five winners raised less than 30K this cycle, two in races where no candidate did.  All but one winner raised at least 15K.

Exceptions are exceptional The only Republican with bad fundraising to win nomination is Gary Eisen, a firearms instructor who raised only 3K.  He had finished second in 2012, and apparently had built some support from that run.  He joins Steven Johnson (2016) and Aaron Miller (2014) as candidates who beat the odds despite poor fundraising. So it is possible for a candidate who works hard to catch on with voters without the usual advantages. But it definitely isn’t the way to bet, and it shouldn’t be an excuse to ignore the usual path to victory.

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2018 Michigan Gubernatorial Race, Democrats, Elections, Michigan, Michigan Politics, Republicans

Coming Out Swinging

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The left is bereft of ideas.

Well, maybe not ‘bereft’, but the ideas they have are generally failed attempts at creating equal outcomes instead of promoting equal opportunity.  Socialism, a well documented catastrophe of civilization’s epoch is now the new norm for the Democrat party.  The tragedy of the ‘best intentions’ has no equal in ways of starving and inciting misery in otherwise viable populations.

Venezuela is easily offered up as the latest misadventure of re-distribution.  Million Plus percentage inflation, pets on plates, and political corruption that would make the bolsheviks of old blush with envy.

Yet there are people in Michigan who still idealize such ‘planned society’.  They exist primarily in the Democrat party, and their newest flag bearer is not shy about pandering to the promises-that-can-never-be-kept in order to gain power.

Bill Schuette, having earned the nomination of the Republican party is wasting no time challenging the nominee of the Democrats.  In a press release today he appears confident that a comparison of her record and rhetoric will expose the regressive policies of those who once upon a time preferred to be called ‘progressive.’

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Michigan Politics

2018 August Primary Election Results

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Governor:
(R) Schuette 51 Calley 25 Colbeck 13 Hines 11
(D) Whitmer 52 El-Sayed 30 Thanedar 18
No surprise. Shri can’t buy votes.

Senate
(R) James 55 Pensler 45
Trump’s endorsement was key here.

Congress
6 (D) Longjohn 37 Franklin 29 Benac 21 Eichholz 13
9 (D) Levin 52 Lipton 42 Dynasty wins here.
11 (R) Epstein 31 Raczkowski 26 Kowall 18 Kesto 14 Bentivolio 11
11 (D) Stevens 27 Greimel 22 Gupta 21 Saad 19 Skinner 10
13 (Regular) (D) Tlaib 33 Jones 29 Wild 14 Young 12 Conyers 6 Jackson 5
13 (Special) (D) Jones 37 Tlaib 36 Wild 15 Conyers 11
A split black vote allowed Tlaib to win the regular primary, while a smaller candidate field allowed Jones to win the special primary.

State Senate
1 (D) Chang 49 Talabi 27 Progressive wins.
2 (D) Hollier 27 Banks 19 Aiyash 17 The cranks were rejected here.
3 (D) Santana 42 Woronchak 39 Belle 14
4 (D) Bullock 45 Durhal 39
5 (D) Alexander 54 Knezek 46 Huge upset of a white D.
6 (D) Geiss 65 Kosowski 35 More liberal D wins.
8 (R) Lucido 72 Goike 28
9 (D) Wojno 63 Lodovisi 37
10 (R) MacDonald 59 Shallal 27
11 (D) Moss 52 Bailey 21
12 (R) McCready 45 Tedder 44 Whitney 8 Moderate wins due to split conservative vote.
14 (R) Johnson 77 Houston 23
15 (R) Runestad 90 Saari 10 Good.
16 (R) Shirkey 64 Dame 36
18 (D) Irwin 35.6 Deatrick 35.2 Rajendra 26
19 (R) Bizon 59 Callton 41 More conservative R wins.
21 (R) LaSata 55 Pagel 45 Conservative R wins.
22 (R) Theis 75 Marinaro 25 Good.
24 (R) Barrett 70 Roberts 30 Big victory.
26 (R) Nesbitt 52 Genetski 29 Consumers Energy smear campaign wins here.
29 (R) Afendoulis 81 Oesch 19
30 (R) Victory 42 Garcia 26 Haveman 26 DeBoer 6 Good that Garcia lost.
31 (R) Daley 59 Glenn 41 Consumers Energy smear campaign wins here.
…(D) Luczak 53 Jordan 20 Pro-life D wins primary.
32 (D) Phelps 59 Gaudreau 41
33 (R) Outman 72 Alexander 28
34 (R) Bumstead 52 Hughes 48 Hughes’ big spending didn’t save her.
…(D) Sias-Hernandez 54 LaMonte 46 Big upset of preferred D candidate.
35 (R) VanderWall 49 Rendon 24 Franz 23 Younger candidate beats two former reps.
37 (R) Schmidt 80 Gurr 20
38 (R) McBroom 69 Carey 31

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Democrats, Elections, Michigan, Michigan Politics

The Price Of Incompetence

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Its just a lousy address.

That is all it would have taken to get on the ballot; using his correct address.  Instead Matt Morgan, who apparently aspires to be one more representative of the disaster known as the Democrat party in Congress, failed at the mere task of properly gaining ballot access.

Aside from the institutional failure of socialist ideology, the Democrat party has had it’s own trickle down of success.  The bench is thin, and the possibility of getting a real live veteran (Morgan) who actually believes in redistribution, cultural denigration, and murdering the unborn has them ..energized.

This photo represents the full out effort of the local and state Democrats to drag him over and onto the November ballot.  This is duplicated throughout the district at each polling place complete with nearby Subaru with a ‘Bernie’ bumper sticker.

It says so much.

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Democrats, Michigan, Michigan Politics, Research & Analysis

In A Couple Of Pictures

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The total amount contributed to Abdul El-Sayed through contributions of $500 or more as reported to the SoS is nearly  $1,500,000.00

This is not the total amount he has raised, but simply the aggregate amount by contributors who really really really want him to be the first Islamic Governor in the United States.  It INCLUDES his own minor personal and in/kind mileage contributions, which in the tables shown are reflected in the Michigan portion.

Let this sink in.  Less than 50% of this particular candidate’s receipts $500 and more are from Michigan voters.

The BIG money comes from somewhere else.

 

 

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Cronyism, Elections, Michigan, Michigan Politics

Dark Money

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Cronyism is alive and well.

Clearly there are people with financial stake in certain players gaining the governor’s seat.  Some interests might be as innocuous as self preservation, and some may be to game the system.  But it’s all in play and the hidden stuff can be spooky.  From Crains this morning:

Three of the leading candidates to be Michigan’s next chief executive have benefited from large sums of cash that can’t be easily followed to their original sources because of federal laws allowing not-for-profit organizations to influence elections outside of the state’s campaign finance law.

Former state Sen. Gretchen Whitmer’s campaign for the Democratic nomination for governor has been aided by $550,000 in concealed donations from two entities that don’t appear to exist in public records.

Attorney General Bill Schuette’s bid for the Republican nomination in next Tuesday’s primary also has been boosted by $1.2 million in untraceable donations flowing from two so-called “dark money” front organizations that can legally conceal the identities of their donors.

And Lt. Gov. Brian Calley got $1.3 million of free advertising through a TV commercial promoting his work with Gov. Rick Snyder turning around Michigan’s economy that was paid for by a Snyder-led group that doesn’t have to disclose its funding sources.

The last guy listed here knows who is footing the bill for his spots I imagine.

He stars in those ads.

In any event, Blue Cross Blue Shield was let off its leash in 2013 walking away with Michigan taxpayer money and made untouchable.  It’s relationship with those who would restore much of its monopoly power should be noted.  However they are not squealing:

Those donations to the pro-Whitmer group have fueled questions from her Democratic opponents as to whether those mystery entities are operating for the sole purpose of concealing corporate money from a big business like Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan, which has allied with Whitmer but not made a traceable donation to her bid to be governor.

“Build a Better Michigan is nothing but a shell for dark money PACs and unlimited money from corporate CEOs who have interest in a Whitmer-led Michigan,” said Adam Joseph, spokesman for El-Sayed. “There is only one reason these corporations and secretive groups are shelling out thousands of dollars to try and get Gretchen Whitmer elected: they want to keep their privilege in a Whitmer administration.”

…

But whether Blue Cross Blue Shield played any role in helping bankroll the pro-Whitmer group Build a Better Michigan is a lingering question the state’s largest health insurance company won’t answer.

Of course BCBS won’t answer.

Being un-collared, (Former AG Mike Cox was their best handler to be honest)  they don’t have to.  Once upon a time they were beholden to the legislature, but now run free-range and can bundle money where it serves their board of director’s interest best.  Anyhow they have been feeding the GOP as well.

Playing the field is not a hard thing to do when flush with unequaled cash reserves.  BCBSmi DID walk away with $Billions given to them by a GOP legislature and governor.

As for the complainer Abdul?  I suspect there is plenty of dark cash ready to fund his efforts.

The swamp is alive and well friends.  Read the complete piece.

 

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Michigan Politics

Primary Recommendations for Michigan State House

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Every seat in the Michigan state house is up for election in 2018, and many seats are open due to term limits.  The house has been run by its more conservative wing for the past four years.  Continuing this trend will depend on conservatives winning primaries in August.  Here are my recommendations for who to support in Republican primaries.  Some races are hard evaluate, so additional information from readers is welcome.

Recommended candidates are in bold.

36. Strangely, none of the three major candidates here have an issue page.  However, Dr. Karen Potchynok-Lund, wife of conservative former rep Pete Lund, is solely endorsed by Right to Life.
38. Moderate incumbent Kathy Crawford has voted to increase gas taxes, support hollywood subsidies and FoxConn subsidies, against electric choice, against an income tax cut, against constitutional carry, against cutting auto insurance rates, and against reforming civil asset forfeiture.  Chase Turner is running on a conservative platform and is endorsed by Pat Colbeck.
39. Assistant prosecutor Marsha Kosmatka is running on a conservative platform and is solely endorsed by Right to Life and Citizens for Traditional Values.  Ryan Berman and Kevin Tatulyan also have decent platforms.
40. Lawyer/businessman David Wolkinson has a fairly conservative platform.  CPA Paul Taros is a Tea Party activist who may not be the best fit for a moderate district. Mike Banerian and Malissa Bossardet have fairly generic platforms.  Joe Zane has made many democrat donations.
41. Oakland County Commissioner Doug Tietz is a good conservative who was campaign manager for the Michigan Civil Rights Initiative in 2006.
43. Independence Township Trustee Jose Aliaga is a solid conservative who has an Aq rating from the NRA, while his opponents both got C from the NRA.
44. Businessman Matt Maddock is a conservative leader in Oakland County.  He is solely endorsed by Right to Life.
51. Mike Mueller is the establishment favorite, but his positions are unimpressive.  County commissioner Drew Shaprio has a history of run-ins with the police and no issues page on his website.  Trump delegate Ian Shetron has a conservative platform.
63. Moderate incumbent David Maturen is pro-abortion, has a D rating from the NRA, and voted for gas tax increases and against income tax cuts.  He is being challenged by conservative activist Matt Hall (a third candidate dropped out).
65. Jackson County Commissioner Sarah Lightner is solely endorsed by Right to Life and has an Aq rating from NRA.
71. County Commissioner Christine Barnes seems to be more conservative than businessman Chuck Cascarilla, but the difference isn’t huge.
72. State rep. Steven Johnson has been one of the best conservatives in the house since his election in 2016.  He is endorsed by Right to Life, NRA, Pat Colbeck, and Bob Genetski.  He is being challenged by moderate Jennifer Antel.
73. Most establishment support has gone to Lynn Afendoulis, cousin of the moderate incumbent.  A better choice is Robert Regan, who is endorsed by the NRA, state senator Pat Colbeck, and state reps Dave Agema and Steve Johnson.
77. State rep Tommy Brann has been an average conservative in office.  He is being challenged by Daniel Oesch.
78. Niles city councilman David Mann is running on a conservative platform and is solely endorsed by Right to Life and conservative state rep Steve Johnson.
79. The candidate websites don’t show a clear distinction.  Pauline Wendzel is endorsed by local conservative activist David Yardley.
81. Kenneth Nicholl and Eric Stocker have raised the most, but have generic platforms.  Joel Williams and Gary Eisen have more conservative platforms.
84. There doesn’t seem to be a clear distinction between county commissioner Matthew Bierlein, Phil Green, son of conservative state senator Mike Green, and businessman Dean Smith.
88. Luke Meerman is solely endorsed by Right to Life, as well as by conservative former state rep. Tom Hooker.
90. Ottawa County Treasurer Bradley Slagh has most establishment support and is solely endorsed by Right to Life.  Orlando Estrada is a conservative alternative.
91. Greg VanWoerkem, a staffer for Bill Huizenga, has most establishment support and is solely endorsed by Right to Life.  However, former county commissioner Alan Jager has a higher NRA rating.
93. County Commissioner Anne Hill is running on a solidly conservative platform.
94. Saginaw Township Treasurer Steven Gerhardt is solely endorsed by Right to Life and is the most conservative candidate.
98. Annette Glenn is the wife of staunch conservative state rep. Gary Glenn.  She is solely endorsed by Right to Life and seems to be the only candidate running a serious campaign.
101. Radio host Jack O’Malley seems to be running the most serious campaign.  Carolyn Cater is runnning as a more conservative alternative.
102. State rep. Michelle Hoitenga has been one of the best conservatives in the house since her election in 2016.  She is being challenged from the left by William Barnett.
107. State rep. Lee Chatfield is a solid conservative who is in line to be the next Republican leader in the house.  He faces an unserious primary opponent.
110. Doctor and school board member Kirk Schott is solely endorsed by Right to Life and seems to be running the most serious campaign.

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