An Ill Portent From Michigan’s Presidential Primary

Massive Democratic Turnout on March 8th Puts Control of the Michigan House in Play

Dead Elephant Image 4aYesterday’s Presidential primary in Michigan broke the participation record set back in 1972’s Presidential primary – both in absolute terms and as a percentage of registered voters participating. While the League of Women Voters types will laud this, the establishments in both the Republican and Democratic Parties are flummoxed. Donald Trump crushed John Kasich and Bernie Sanders beat Hillary. Establishment candidates failed. Both party establishments are scrambling to finesse the insubordination of their voters.

Pundits figure that the Democratic Party establishment can bring their obstreperous base to heel, but few figure the Republican Party establishment will have any corresponding success. The prospective success or failure of their counterinsurgency warfare, and its effect upon November, fixates the press and both establishments.

But there is a less obvious, very ill portent here for Michigan Republicans.

2016 Primary EnthusiasmMichigan’s voter turnout record yesterday strongly suggests a major problem for our Republican establishment. Republican turnout in the earlier Presidential primaries held this year has been higher than Democratic turnout by a 60/40 ratio. This despite generally higher Democratic voter registrations and an equally hot, mirror image Democratic Presidential primary race. Republican analysts have jubilantly cited this as proof of a nationwide enthusiasm gap benefiting Republican candidates But the voter turnout ratio in Michigan yesterday was only 53/47. Not much of an enthusiasm gap. Democrats in Michigan are also red hot.  Whole percentage points really matter here, right down to the local level; political strategists spend millions to get every percentage point they can.

Only in the Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Vermont primaries did the Democrats achieve a better turnout ratio than Michigan’s.

Has Michigan suddenly lurched left, joining these Democratic bastions?

Probably not, but the massive Democratic turnout convincingly demonstrates that Michigan Republicans do have an existential problem: Flint.

Hillary Clinton has been working over Michigan’s Republicans on the subject of Flint water quality decisions hard for two months on the campaign trail. Bernie was actually the first Democratic candidate to call for Governor Snyder’s resignation.  Hillary joined his call in their Flint debate.  The Republican response has been lame and muted. This has intensely motivated Democratic voters in Michigan and represents an existential threat to our Republican candidates in November. Not just Michigan Republican candidates, but Republican candidates nationwide. Democratic strategists will gleefully write ‘Willy Horton’ style advertisements which cast Governor Snyder as the virtual running mate of the Republican Presidential nominee. In fact, any Republican candidate who has had any remote relationship with Governor Snyder will discover just how closely he/she is related to the Governor.  Merely being a Republican will probably suffice.

Back to Michigan. Republicans have enjoyed a tenuous majority in the State House of Representatives since 2010. Twenty-six current Republican House members will be unable to run for reelection in November due to term limits. Only 13 Democratic House members will be unable to run for reelection in November due to term limits. The current balance in the Michigan House of Representatives is 63 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and one vacant seat (in Macomb County which will almost certainly be filled by a Democrat once its special election is held).

The Democrats only have to flip 9 or 10 seats to take control of the Michigan House. Given that we are looking at a coincidental Presidential election, it is instructive to look at what happened in 2012. Despite widespread opposition from the nascent Tea Party, the Democrats flipped 5 seats to their advantage. Yes, redistricting helped the Democrats, but Democrats actually had one more term limited seat to retain. Ultimately, turnout was the key to Republican losses in 2012. Democratic voters really come out in Presidential elections.

Fast forward to 2016. The Michigan Republican establishment has been on a two year jihad against the Tea Party. Here they have done real damage to their own base without garnering any new adherents.  Complete stupidity. They have scrambled – unsuccessfully – to find a Presidential candidate to challenge the Tea Party favorite Donald Trump. Clear evidence that the Tea Party has not been exterminated, but is now exacting a well deserved revenge from the Republican establishment behind a clever – if unloved – leader. And the Michigan Republican establishment’s inept standard bearer, Governor Snyder, has unwittingly created the most powerful Democratic political weapon in a generation: Flint water.

The Michigan Republican establishment is staring into an abyss of their own making. If they lose the Michigan House, Democrats will enthusiastically take control of Michigan’s government. Governor Snyder is badly damaged goods. He will be in no position to tip the balance in negotiations amongst divided legislators. Control of the Michigan Supreme Court will be of only limited help. Michigan politics will regress to the 1970’s.  Taxes, spending, and regulation ad nauseum.

This predicament is entirely of the Republican establishment’s making. They have exactly 244 days to fix this mess. They know what they have to do, but will they do it? Can they swallow their Masters of the Universe egos for long enough to win in November?  They need friends in a hurry and their only prospects are the very same Tea Partiers they have spent so much to malign.

You will know much more about the sincerity of their political convictions. In 244 days.

You Betcha! (14)Nuh Uh.(1)

  29 comments for “An Ill Portent From Michigan’s Presidential Primary

  1. JD
    March 9, 2016 at 5:18 pm

    With all due respect..if the friends they are (supposedly) needing here in Michigan..are the same traditional Tea Partiers that are supposed be advising us 'now' of how they (and they alone) will USE that (supposed) November leverage...why is this (supposed) strategy such a big secret (now) to the rest of us? (ie. the 'unwashed' in the conservative movement who aren't attending expensive VIP-based conventions).

    "Grassroots" has definitely taken on a country club (MiGOP-based) atmosphere indeed since 2009 and I'm guessing that most are not looking forward to waiting 244 days to see if their membership is approved.

    You Betcha! (0)Nuh Uh.(0)
  2. Corinthian Scales
    March 9, 2016 at 5:37 pm

    And in other news, Carly endorses -

    Neil 'Silverado S&L' Bush joins the Cruz finance team -

    Last but, not least, Jeb(!) is meeting with Poolboy today, the Cubanadian, and Gaysich tomorrow -

    You Betcha! (5)Nuh Uh.(0)
  3. Sue Schwartz
    March 9, 2016 at 5:54 pm

    From a TP perspective--working from within the GOP hoping that hard work and common sense would prevail (my bad) I knew there would come a time that the GOP would implode. I've witnessed in just the last week, just that. For instance five years ago, Mitt Romney came to town--there were more than 1000 of us squished into the Park Place dome for a couple of hours and we had to send folks out for water. Secret Service was quite impressive and I do have to say, observing Mrs. Romney coping with her MS--I just really admirer her. We showed up with our Ron Paul stuff and while we got a second glance from the Secret Service we were harmless enough. That year, Votes were cast not for Romney and should have served as Lesson 1. Fast forward to last Sat. same venue for Kasich. Not even 200 folks and those there were the elite GOP--that is the County Executive committees from surrounding counties. There were strutting like peacocks--I kid you not. There were no blacks, no youngsters, (voters 18-30) and in five years time, not one effort has been made to attract the youth and blacks. (Lost Lesson 2). I'm ashamed. And did I say that Trump hats were not allowed? All day yesterday, I heard the talking heads call Romney "Michigan's Favorite son". Were they not paying attention to five years ago? For five years, the worker bees of the GOP have been abused, used and tossed. Kick a dog too much and it bites back. (Lost lesson 3) This philosophy being created by the likes of Romney continues and they wonder why Bernie and Trump succeed in their own backyards. Duh! I guess its true you can't teach an old dog new tricks.

    Anyone who witnessed the contrivance of Ronna junior being elevated to state GOP chair continued the disenfranchising of those loyal delegates seeking to make things better. The Flint situation is not the making of the GOP problem as its been years in the making, and I agree, it will serve to bring down the strutting peacocks of the GOP.

    You Betcha! (3)Nuh Uh.(0)
    • JD
      March 9, 2016 at 10:35 pm

      Thank you Sue for at least giving us even a very short 'glimpse' of what happens at these MiGOP affairs or behind the scenes.
      Why the average Michigan conservative hasn't been privy day-to-day and in real time to anything similar over the years (locally/statewide) to help rally the vast concerned majority stuck behind the velvet ropes has baffled me for years.
      I just can't imagine those who (finally) fought for our freedom over 200 years ago being rallied by:
      "Hey, we've got to play this close to the vest and just between us in the tavern here...but let's all just see what George does this fall to see whether word gets out to the countryside after he does it.."
      If you ever figured that Obama would cram crap down our throats in his last haven't seen anything as compared to how our lives will soon change right here in Michigan leading up to and right through this lame duck session.
      Insiders matter...before they're thrown out for sharing the wink and nod stuff.

      You Betcha! (0)Nuh Uh.(0)
  4. March 9, 2016 at 8:27 pm

    Evidence that Trump, attractor of cross over Dems, is a TP favorite isn't presented to back up that claim. As I understand the TP, we want smaller government. This is not Mr. Trump's promise AFAIK.

    You Betcha! (4)Nuh Uh.(0)
    • Corinthian Scales
      March 10, 2016 at 7:01 am

      Are you referring to your TP, which was co-opted by the GOPe long ago? Please enlighten us.

      Bottom line. If you don't see that illegal invaders and defined borders are our first priority to get our debt under control, well, then you just are not understanding what this election is about and, you sure as hell do not understand how money works.

      Yessirree. Millions of us Trump voters across this nation just don't "get it."

      You Betcha! (4)Nuh Uh.(1)
      • March 10, 2016 at 2:06 pm

        I'm referring to the ideas that motivated the tea party (note lack of caps) protests. Smaller government. Lower taxes. Honest currency, Remove corruption from government.

        This isn't mysterious.

        You Betcha! (1)Nuh Uh.(0)
        • Corinthian Scales
          March 10, 2016 at 2:46 pm

          Ah, so now you're lower case. See how quickly you change? Yes, you're just like any other movement - they change.

          Everything you list is all there contained within the movement candidate who is dominating this election. Not too hard for you to research.

          This isn't mysterious.

          You Betcha! (5)Nuh Uh.(0)
  5. Bos Bos
    March 10, 2016 at 12:19 am

    I'm hopeful that the GOP does indeed lose it's majority in the House.

    One party rule with a liberal Governor has been a disaster, and the last thing we need is more laws being passed. Gridlock is our only hope.

    You Betcha! (6)Nuh Uh.(0)
    • Corinthian Scales
      March 10, 2016 at 7:24 am

      The elimination of straight ticket voting should help slaying the Two heads - Same snake Party control over Lansing. Gridlock is a temporary fix to a long ailing Romeny/Milliken/Rakolta/DeVos/Weiser legacy problem in this dysfunctional state.

      You Betcha! (6)Nuh Uh.(0)
  6. JD
    March 10, 2016 at 8:04 am

    (CS): Are you referring to your TP, which was co-opted by the GOPe long ago?
    "..The Michigan Republican establishment has been on a two year jihad against the Tea Party.."
    "..They need friends in a hurry and their only prospects are the very same Tea Partiers they have spent so much to malign..."

    Either my local Tea Party is:
    At war and certainly not acting like it..
    At war and refusing to describe it as such.
    At war but (still) open to being newest best buddies with those sworn to destroy them (see definition of 'jihad').
    ..or at war with every MiGOP operative in the their own backyards (a problematic version of coveted bumper stickers which don't play well at local traffic lights).

    One of the two quotes above is correct or perhaps they both are...yet a grassroots movement is doomed from the very beginning if patriots are (somehow) convinced to believe both.

    You Betcha! (1)Nuh Uh.(0)
    • Corinthian Scales
      March 10, 2016 at 10:45 am

      No, the grassroots are not doomed. Have you been ignoring voter turnout? You're not a master of the obvious JD, however, for you or, anyone droning the Tea bleat boxing yourself into a corner in the belief you're a Party is beyond moronic. You're a movement at best. If you insist on this fantasy world that you're a Party in fact, well, then you're truly a rudderless vessel with extraordinarily shitty vetting ability who believes in whoever comes along blowing pious smoke up your ass.

      You Betcha! (6)Nuh Uh.(0)
      • archiespeck
        March 10, 2016 at 12:19 pm

        Pretty ironic coming from a "conservative" supporting a candidate who donated to the Clinton Crime Family.

        You Betcha! (1)Nuh Uh.(1)
        • Corinthian Scales
          March 11, 2016 at 1:13 pm

          Not nearly as ironic as the "consistent conservative" uniting with the Bush Crime Family and, meeting behind closed doors with Fruitio and Gaysich.

          Anyhoo, long time no see, Archie, how the hell is your miserable downstate suburbia life been?

          You Betcha! (4)Nuh Uh.(0)
          • archiespeck
            March 12, 2016 at 9:27 am

            Awe. Not nearly as miserable as someone who spends their days on the internet making 3rd grade gay insults towards those he disagrees with.

            Anyway, just stopped by to acknowledge your Trump support proves you were never the conservative you claimed to be. Just a typical mark for the left wing con man who laughs at all the rubes at his rallies. Enjoy supporting supposedly conservative positions such as single payer health care. Bernie Sanders would agree. K? Bai.

            You Betcha! (1)Nuh Uh.(1)
            • Corinthian Scales
              March 12, 2016 at 12:25 pm

              But of course, Archie. Because there has been one candidate in either Party in the past 30+ years who has dared to repeal EMTALA? Please do provide where single payer is evidence in your claim and, not some bullshit gotcha quip - actual policy. Bottom line is you're going to have a rough 8 years accepting that you've been played as a cuck for your entire life.



              Now, you can return to your miserable charade existence in your downstate cesspool parroting Fox *news*, Rush, and (((Levin))).

              You Betcha! (3)Nuh Uh.(2)
              • archiespeck
                March 12, 2016 at 2:11 pm

                In all seriousness, what in Trump's paper thin platform appeals to you? If you really want to live under a dictator and socialized medicine you could move to Cuba.

                You Betcha! (0)Nuh Uh.(0)
                • Corinthian Scales
                  March 12, 2016 at 2:37 pm

                  Have heard all your regurgitated Fox/Rush/(((Levin))) talking points before and, they all still fall flat on their Cuck ass. Nevertheless, from above comment-

                  Archie, you're a special kinda stupid, ain'tcha?

                  You Betcha! (0)Nuh Uh.(2)
    • Jason
      March 10, 2016 at 10:51 am

      "War" can be waged on a number of different levels.

      Propaganda is a tool. Keeping 'enemies close' is a tactic. Diplomacy is a part of the resolution. Discretion is the better part of valor in such things.

      There are times where it is best to wield a blunt object. There are times to lay siege. And there are times to infiltrate and quietly seize power.

      No matter what folks do, there are folks who will complain that it is being done wrong.

      Imagine that.

      You Betcha! (7)Nuh Uh.(0)
      • Corinthian Scales
        March 10, 2016 at 12:35 pm

        Blunt objects? Most effective:

        You Betcha! (5)Nuh Uh.(1)
      • Corinthian Scales
        March 11, 2016 at 9:47 am

        Blunt objects? Get BTFO -

        You Betcha! (3)Nuh Uh.(0)
  7. Sue Schwartz
    March 10, 2016 at 12:18 pm

    Boo Boo--Can you not determine that there is only one party? There is no majority anywhere because if there was Nobama Care would have been immediately destroyed. And all these bailouts--surely you don't agree to these bailouts? Detroit Schools bailout coming your way.

    There are about 90K folks living in my county. The County has $48 Million in unfunded pension debt and about $40 Million budget shortfall, (May include this year's Pension debt) or approximately a $90 million debt. So, I suggest that stocks/bonds be sold to the residents of Grand Traverse. If every person purchased $1000 in municipal bonds and or stocks (we'd leave out the bonding companies and save thousands in commissions) we residents would own our county lock, stock and barrel. This will force the county to get rid of superfluous things--every government has these line items that need to be cut. In addition, we have a casino in our back yard who shares millions in winnings and I suggest that for one year, this money goes not to social agencies, but rather to stabilize our local government and would lower the cost of the individual bonds. In return, the County will not take any federal funds from EPA, (or other alphabet agencies) as I know for a fact that the EPA must have a proprietary or monetary interest in order to regulate and they have neither. We must get back to this type thinking. Lastly, the only helping hands we would use--is that at the end of our arms.

    You Betcha! (3)Nuh Uh.(0)
  8. JD
    March 11, 2016 at 4:48 pm

    Question Sue:
    If your county has $48 million dollars in unfunded pension debt..why are your current 'public' pensioners any more 'special' than those private pensioners who have lost their benefits in similar circumstances ...or the young people (now) who have chosen the exact same jobs working much longer hours at a fraction of the pay and benefits?

    You know who these kids are, Sue..the poor bastards who have been recruited for 'peanuts' with their continually inflation attacked "401Ks" to clean up the mess that these same pensioners have left behind in your beautiful county?

    Or can't a retired (unfunded) county pensioner take the same pay/benefits (cuts) that their young peon replacements have had to counter your suggested 'pension obligation bonding' (Senate Bill 1129 of 2012) that was instantly 'all the rage' by that (unchallenged) grassroots/MiGOP unanimous vote?

    Why do Trump, Sanders and all the rest 'appeal'?..because not a single one will step up for those (intentionally) left behind and (now) doing all the dirty work so that their previous job mentors can 'summer' (only) in Grand Traverse County (elsewhere).

    You Betcha! (0)Nuh Uh.(0)
  9. Corinthian Scales
    March 11, 2016 at 6:48 pm

    Heh! Gotta hand it to, JD, invariably his comments never fail to make me think of this-

    You Betcha! (2)Nuh Uh.(0)
  10. JD
    March 12, 2016 at 6:37 am

    I've known a LOT of very hard workers in my life who chose careers with failed companies and lost close to everything in terms of pension benefits for both them and their spouse.

    Why failed governments are any different in terms of what we ALL are obliged to leave for our children regarding the perpetual costs of basic liberty or societal sustenance is beyond me.

    This is why tents get tore down on top of patriots and nobody says a word afterwards beyond:
    "See, junior...if you go to Lansing (or town hall) and actually stand up for what you believe in? will not only be attacked (under watch)..but absolutely NOBODY will have your back either during or afterwards..".

    "...You will know much more about the sincerity of their political convictions. In 244 days..."
    I'm assuming that you're speaking of the 'star't of the lame anybody who has been paying attention to the pedal-to-the-metal legislation that they've been crafting since even 2014?..ought to be pretty darn worried about MUCH more this election (oh, I forgot..we don't RALLY patriots during lame duck sessions lest there be 'trouble'..see above).

    You Betcha! (0)Nuh Uh.(0)
    • Corinthian Scales
      March 12, 2016 at 12:51 pm

      Ah, so still wailing about the DeVos/Weiser Tent who aided and abetted folks who build their wealth by selling out American workers/pensioners to cheap labor in Asia, Mexico, Brazil, India and, importing H-1B wage suppression. Rather surprised that you did not also get in Romney, who built his wealth by taking over troubled corporation, burying them in debt, then ushering many of his holdings into bankruptcy only to screw American workers/pensioners out of their jobs and retirements they earned.

      You Betcha! (1)Nuh Uh.(1)
  11. Corinthian Scales
    March 12, 2016 at 3:04 pm

    Saturday matinée edition of Great Moments In Cuck History-

    Just the thought of facing the quagmire choice of another four years of Willard and Lyin' Ryan had they been elected or, whatever Socialist the Super-delegate voting Dem Party apparatchik selects is just vomit inducing.

    You Betcha! (1)Nuh Uh.(1)
  12. Conservative First
    March 12, 2016 at 10:48 pm

    I don't think your argument supports your conclusion. Most of the primaries have been in states that are more Republican than Michigan (except the three you listed) so they aren't a relevant comparison. Republicans will likely lose some house seats since it is a presidential year. If it is a bad year, the state house could be lost. But I don't think the presidential primary turnout tells us anything.

    You Betcha! (0)Nuh Uh.(0)
  13. Corinthian Scales
    March 13, 2016 at 1:38 am

    Okay, "Conservative" First, here's something about your "educated" conclusion that will even penetrate your college campus job thick skull. Us people who are getting screwed by parasites within both Party's are pissed off at the number shuffling dickheads like yourself who fellate a W. Bush lackey and Goldman Sachs' owned fraud like Rafael Cruz.

    Ps. when Texan voters finally figure out the orchestrated lie, Greg Abbott and his endorsement actually means, is going to go down in flames too. Lowest voter turnout in Texas since 1913 is the tell-

    In other words, you're a bottom feeder campuscrat who just got your bullshit narrative BTFO.

    You Betcha! (1)Nuh Uh.(1)

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