Elections

Proportional Backfill

Did the Michigan Republican Party pull another fast one with RNC delegate allocation?

Those of us who’ve been hanging around RightMichigan since prior to 2014 likely remember well the Michigan Dele-Gate Fiasco of 2012. As a quick refresher, on Tuesday, February 28th of that year, Mitt Romney defeated Rick Santorum in the statewide popular vote, 41.10% to 37.87%. However, because 28 of Michigan’s 30 post-penalty delegates were awarded on a district-by-district basis (Romney and Santorum splitting the state at 7 districts each), and because the statewide vote totals were so close (requiring the two at-large delegates to be split one each), the resulting 15-15 delegate tie didn’t exactly square with the RNC/GOPe’s preferred media narrative that Romney won his native state. Thus, in the telephonic equivalent of a late-night, backroom deal, the MIGOP Credentials Committee (then consisting of Bobby Schostak, Sharon Wise, Saul Anuzis, Holly Hughes, Bill Runco, Mike Cox, and Eric Doster) voted 4-2 – Hughes was not present at the meeting – to creatively interpret State Party Rule 19C, and award both at-large delegates to Romney. The resulting backlash fueled an eleven-week effort that culminated in a two-day Showdown in Motown, with the end result being the ballot box blowout ouster of the national committeeman regarded as the chief engineer of the ex post facto railroad job.

It’s probably not going to draw much attention (likely because damn near no one noticed), but the potential for a Grand Theft Delegate con job similar to the Michigan Dele-Gate Fiasco of 2012 was averted, largely due to one person explaining a key state party rule in a way that eliminated the possibility of applying that rule by political discretion, and instead imposed a resolution rubric according to plain mathematics.

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An Ill Portent From Michigan’s Presidential Primary

Massive Democratic Turnout on March 8th Puts Control of the Michigan House in Play

Dead Elephant Image 4aYesterday’s Presidential primary in Michigan broke the participation record set back in 1972’s Presidential primary – both in absolute terms and as a percentage of registered voters participating. While the League of Women Voters types will laud this, the establishments in both the Republican and Democratic Parties are flummoxed. Donald Trump crushed John Kasich and Bernie Sanders beat Hillary. Establishment candidates failed. Both party establishments are scrambling to finesse the insubordination of their voters.

Pundits figure that the Democratic Party establishment can bring their obstreperous base to heel, but few figure the Republican Party establishment will have any corresponding success. The prospective success or failure of their counterinsurgency warfare, and its effect upon November, fixates the press and both establishments.

But there is a less obvious, very ill portent here for Michigan Republicans.

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Kasich Surge In Michigan Changes Math Slightly.

Fun with delegate numbers

bizarro-voteMichigan has a proportional system to settle the 59 delegates choosing the GOP candidate for the presidential primary in 2016.

Because legislators chose a date prior to March 15, the is no winner take all system in place.  Currently polling has Trump at about 42%, Cruz and Kasich each at about 20, and Rubio falling flat at 10 or so.  In the delegate pooling (hopefully I calculated this correctly), this would result in 25 delegates for Trump, 12 for Cruz, 12 For Kasich and zero for Rubio.  The remainder is split the same 8 for Trump, and 1 each for Kasich and Cruz.

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A Path To A Brokered Election

Subject: Look At The Numbers Michiganians

Kasich-RubioA vote for Rubio or Kasich in Michigan is a vote for a RINO brokered convention. Look at the numbers.

Rubio will not win Florida! Why? Northern Florida…aka the “red neck riviera”, will probably go for Trump. Southern Florida, which is predominantly Cuban Americans, will go for Cruz. Why? Rubio’s support for amnesty and immigration reform allowing more Mexicans and Puerto Ricans and other non Cuban “Hispanics” into the U.S. will be his downfall.

Cubans trace their heritage back to mother Spain as do the Argentines and Chileans. They are the true Hispanics. Lyndon Johnson bastardized and generalized the term Hispanic to mean all persons living in Latin America. There is significant bias and prejudice in Southern Florida between Cuban Americans and Mexicans, Puerto Ricans and other Latin American cultures that do not derive their heritage and roots from mother Spain. They are predominantly perceived by Cubans as indigenous Indians.

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Bitter Consequences

Scorched Earth Politics Isolates the Republican Establishment in Michigan

Mitt Romney Image 1Anyone who watched or listened to Mitt Romney’s lame assault on Donald Trump yesterday had to wince at the Obamacare architect and gun control proponent questioning the bona fides of the current Republican front runner. Hypocrisy at its finest. A blatant violation of Reagan’s Eleventh Commandment. A testament to the abject desperation coursing through the Republican establishment today. Stark evidence of how few friends the Republican establishment actually owns has.

Just how did the Republican establishment get themselves into this predicament?

What does their predicament portend in Michigan politics?

This year’s Presidential nomination process demonstrates convincingly that money is no longer a substitute for actual human support in a political process where the great unwashed get to vote. Money – and the TV advertising it bought – had a 40 year run buying elections, but this elixir of modern American politics is no longer working. ¡Jeb! is very expensive history. The great unwashed are in open revolt.

Ace over at the Ace of Spades HQ blog offered the very best analysis of the national Republican establishment’s current predicament, which compelled Mitt’s embarrassing performance yesterday. You should read it in its entirety, but in a nutshell:

The Republican establishment has no one credible to make their case against Donald Trump. Absolutely no one who has even a shred of credibility with Trump supporters. They sent Mitt Romney out on yesterday’s kamikaze mission because they had nothing better to offer. Then they will have to spend a mountain of wealth with no real prospects of success. And engage in strong arm tactics. Making an embarrassing spectacle of themselves.

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Draft Ben Carson For US Senate

Ben-CarsonPopped up in my Facebook feed today:

Run, Ben, Run! Join our effort to draft Dr. Carson, a Detroit native, to return to Michigan and run for the U.S. Senate in 2018. https://www.facebook.com/Draft-Ben-Carson-for-US-Senate-1560440750949118/

I agree.

Come on home Ben.  Bring your politically incorrect platform back to Michigan and show how a real conservative can win a US Senate seat in Michigan.  Stabenow has been allowed far too much time in DC working against us and the constitution, and the GOP bench repeatedly puts up weak candidates.

This is an outstanding idea.

Run Ben Run indeed!

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Ross’ Revenge

To understand the Butterfly Effect, one must understand whence the butterfly came.

To say that the 2016 Republican Presidential Campaign has become interesting since June of last year is a bit of an understatement, to say the least. An out-of-the-blue “chaos injection” on June 16th (that FOX News polling saw coming as early as March 31st, but no one else picked up on until late May) became the nationally-recognized front runner not five weeks later, completely leapfrogging the “heir apparent” (who promptly went into a freefall, and has now exited the campaign). Because of this chaos injection, one candidate, who was until that point considered to be irrelevant, leapfrogged to become the national runner-up about five and a half weeks later (and was the national front-runner for three days in November), and two young guns are now openly tussling for second place nationally, neither of whom were supposed to have a realistic chance to begin with.

As should have been expected, the thorough derailing of the coronation train for the republican heir apparent makes the professional political establishment very unhappy, and, of course, they’re hell-bent on doing something about that. But the reason that all of their scrambling is increasingly ineffective is that they don’t seem to really understand the causa provocare of the outsider’s challenge, perhaps because they really don’t understand the degree to which the typical voter is disgusted with the political status quo in America, or why. Thus, predictably, the flailing increasingly exposes them for who they are and what they intend, which conversely makes the outsider’s job that much easier.

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The Free Press Wants to Help Republicans

Really????

John Kasich Image 1The Detroit Free Press Editorial Board endorsed Ohio Governor John R. Kasich in the March 8th Republican Presidential Primary yesterday. Governor Kasich is a fine man with many worthwhile qualifications, but every poll and vote this year indicate that he is way out of step with the current political zeitgeist. Common Core, Medicaid expansion, and global warming are not Republican crowd pleasers. Even the Democratic Presidential candidates are soft peddling these losers.

Is there a single genuine Republican in Michigan stupid enough to believe that the Detroit Free Press Editorial Board would actually do anything of benefit to the Republican Party, nationally or in Michigan?

Remember that the Detroit Free Press Editorial Board endorsed our current “I know noooooothing” RINO Governor not just once, but twice. Governor Snyder and his merry band of brown-nosing bureaucrats have really boosted the fortunes of the Michigan Republican Party, haven’t they? Even the DeVos family – big Kasich contributors in Ohio Governor racesare not peddling him in Michigan.

So why would the Detroit Free Press Editorial Board endorse Governor John Kasich in the Republican Presidential Primary? Two possibilities: the arrogance of the witless, or another ploy to destroy the Michigan Republican Party.

You decide.

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Because

Just to be clear.

A while back this site left the rah-rah part of the neighborhood.

Rightmi.com stopped being the default cheerleader for the Michigan GOP as a matter of principle.  Particularly since the primary part of the MiGOP has all but abandoned its tenets and reason to exist.  What exists now is a shell of pseudo conservatism, and a mockery of the platform under which the party pretends to exist.  Arguably, we still prefer the Republicans who run on conservative platforms but the party mechanism makes it tougher to sort them out.

There is some seriously spoiled fruit in the party.  Snyder is no ‘Republican,’ yet his ‘purchasing’ of, and carrying the flag as one, is enough to fool the soft stupid on both sides of the aisle.  The machinery in place to keep Republicans in majority has corrupted the ability to recruit and retain true conservative leadership as well.  Ronna Romney does her part to keep those crazy doctrinaire Republicans in check using party money and resources.

In fact, its one of the reasons I am changing my phone service to a different carrier.  It allows me to block solicitations for the MiGOP, and these calls usually come from outside the state anyhow.

Having said all that, I still believe today’s loyalist Democrats are the bane of intellectual development.  Even more so than the blind loyalist Republicans who still support bad apples no matter what..  Flint, Detroit, etc..  The inability to look at the results of generational liberal rule and deduce the higher incompetency rate is beyond mind blowing.

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Status Report-Recall

previewBeen a little busy circling the wagons here…

We are now in the process of organizing volunteer circulators, have at least some in 6 of the 8 counties involved in the Schmidt recall. The good news…

“The minimum number of valid signatures required on a recall petition is equal to 25% of the total number of votes cast for all candidates for governor in the relevant Senate district in the most recent gubernatorial election. MCL 168.955. There is no requirement that a certain percentage of signatures come from each county that comprises the Senate district.

For the 37th State Senate District, the minimum number of valid signatures required is 23,384. For the 35th Senate District, the minimum number of valid signatures required is 22,491.”

The above quote is from the Bureau of Elections response to our e-mail concerning minimum requirements, this means that we could theoretically collect ALL 23,384 signatures from ONE county. Any one county come to mind? This alters our approach only slightly though, as circulators within and without Senate District 37 are hell bent on putting Wayne on an August recall ballot. So we will attempt to collect throughout the district.

In additional to the March 8th Presidential primary, in the first week of March, at least two of the candidates have scheduled visits to Traverse City. Donald Trump is one of them, and if previous crowds at his rallies are any indication, a few well placed circulators should have a field day roaming throughout the crowds. I would assume these same politicos will stop in Grand Rapids, aiding the folks running the Meekhof recall.

We have also scheduled an rVotes training session for our group(s) in mid-March to identify and contact likely signers and voters for reduction into highly ;localized walking lists. This system will allow us to contact and canvass the most likely signers of the petition, and these will be the most likely to vote to replace Schmidt.

We have reserved a domain name for the recall, which will be announced after the website has been established, along with a DBA, committee, and bank account for State and Federal (if necessary) accounting/reporting purposes. The site will also have a “Donate” button/page for contributions. Other campaign ‘goodies’ are in the works, but first we must establish a cohesive organization and business model.

2,000 petitions have been printed, and will be distributed shortly after Valentine’s Day (this one’s for you, Wayne)…Some basic training for new circulators will be accomplished at the same time, and signs/handouts distributed at these meetings. We have established County Captains (coordinators) in 4 counties to facilitate and monitor the petition process. We have 3 weeks to prepare for the signature launch, any volunteers may contact me at my e-mail: retvet242@yahoo.com, which has survived several hack attacks last month, or by phone: 231-709-0474.

Also of note, we have been warned to stay away from Charlevoix County by one John Haggard, which we take as a direct challenge of course.

Wish us good luck here in the second phase of this process. This is our chance to conduct a referendum on Wayne Schmidt’s performance as not only a State Senator, but a Rep in the 103rd and 104th. His record in the House is now also ”fair game”.

In pursuit of freedom,

Tom Backers

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