Kasich Surge In Michigan Changes Math Slightly.

Fun with delegate numbers

bizarro-voteMichigan has a proportional system to settle the 59 delegates choosing the GOP candidate for the presidential primary in 2016.

Because legislators chose a date prior to March 15, the is no winner take all system in place.  Currently polling has Trump at about 42%, Cruz and Kasich each at about 20, and Rubio falling flat at 10 or so.  In the delegate pooling (hopefully I calculated this correctly), this would result in 25 delegates for Trump, 12 for Cruz, 12 For Kasich and zero for Rubio.  The remainder is split the same 8 for Trump, and 1 each for Kasich and Cruz.

  • Trump 33
  • Cruz 13
  • Kasich 13
  • Rubio 0

Up until recently, Kasich had been polling below 15. If Both Rubio and Kasich were both at 14% with Trump and Cruz splitting the difference, Trump at 45 and Cruz at 22, with the remaining 5% going to withdrawn candidates, it would result in a bit of a change.  Trump would get 27 plus 9 plus 3 plus1 plus 1, Cruz 13 plus 4 plus 1, and no other distribution for the other candidates.

  • Trump 41
  • Cruz 18
  • Kasich 0
  • Rubio 0

The way in which voting breaks will determine the final count, but this provides a couple of examples on how the delegate distribution will break down.  In this example Cruz only loses 5 delegates to Trump’s 8.

However, those who are voting for Kasich as an alternative to Trump or Cruz, are asking for a brokered affair which I lovingly refer to as #Republigeddon.  Reaching the 50% threshold or being as close to it as possible will make the first round voting the decider for the contest.  After the first round, if there is no winner, Michigan’s delegates are unbound, and that is when the trouble starts.

Though sub 15% performance by Kasich and Rubio would be better for a first round pick, it would also be to a slight advantage by Trump over Cruz in the count.  However, in the event Kasich or Rubio (or both) overperform in Michigan, and actually get more than 15% but THEN withdraw, the END result might be to the advantage of Cruz if those delegates are not inclined to support Trump.

Full rules are of course, available here

You Betcha! (6)Nuh Uh.(3)

  9 comments for “Kasich Surge In Michigan Changes Math Slightly.

  1. Corinthian Scales
    March 8, 2016 at 8:37 am

    "Surge" Ya, cuck it up all you like but, if honest you all know how it's going down in Michigan.

    OABTW, this should go over well with those who are not trapped within the cesspool of fraud and maleficence of caucus states - http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/03/06/ted-cruz-campaigning-tomorrow-in-mississippi-with-extremist-bryan-arrest-all-the-gays-fischer/

    You Betcha! (0)Nuh Uh.(1)
    • Jason
      March 8, 2016 at 8:48 am

      So now the conservative treehouse is playing the millenial game? Bravo.

      IMO Because voting started as soon as the absentee ballots went out, it should end like this.. Trump 38% Cruz 30%, Kasich 15%, Rubio 10% and the remainder to those out of the race because people were in such a hurry.

      You Betcha! (0)Nuh Uh.(0)
      • Corinthian Scales
        March 8, 2016 at 9:05 am

        Millennial game? BWAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Keep on cucking...

        You Betcha! (0)Nuh Uh.(0)
        • Jason
          March 8, 2016 at 9:10 am

          Seriously, because the authors don't agree they pull out the bigot or racist card.

          Some of the same nonsense team Rubio is pulling on Trump. Its crap no matter who spouts it.

          You Betcha! (1)Nuh Uh.(0)
          • Corinthian Scales
            March 8, 2016 at 9:17 am

            Now you've become a SJW, too? Cucks really have no shame. Your guy is what he is - a snake.


            You Betcha! (0)Nuh Uh.(0)
  2. Rich
    March 8, 2016 at 12:42 pm

    Good to see CS raising the level of discourse with sound, rational arguments.....

    You Betcha! (1)Nuh Uh.(0)
    • Corinthian Scales
      March 8, 2016 at 2:49 pm

      Ah, the passive-aggressive ploy in conflict avoidance.

      Nice touch, puss-cake.

      You Betcha! (0)Nuh Uh.(1)
      • Rich
        March 8, 2016 at 8:40 pm

        Ahh, attacking anyone who disagrees with you with vulgarity. Nice way to shit down any debate.

        I have yet to see you make a rational argument to discuss/debate

        You Betcha! (1)Nuh Uh.(0)
        • Corinthian Scales
          March 8, 2016 at 10:27 pm

          Vulgarity? Are you really that low T beta manlet?

          You Betcha! (0)Nuh Uh.(1)

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