Daily Archives: December 8, 2020

Polling: What Went Wrong?

People who want to know the future have many tools.  There are crystal balls, fortune cookies, horoscopes, and just a bit more credible, public opinion polls.  The 2020 election featured a spectacular failure of the polling industry.

RealClearPolitics catalogues all major (non-candidate) polls.  They also average the results of all recent polls, which effectively increases the sample size and reduces the margin of error.  Their national polling average was Biden +7.2, while the popular vote was Biden +4.5, an error of 2.7%.  The results in many state polls were even worse.  In Ohio, the error favored Biden by 7.2%.  In Iowa, it was 6.2%.  In Wisconsin, it was 6%.  Overall, Trump outperformed the polls in 33 states.  Curiously, Biden did overperform the polls in a few states, including Minnesota.

You Betcha! (4)Nuh Uh.(7)