Prop 1 (tax changes) wins easily 69-31.

Congress:
1. Benishek wins 70-30.  Alan Arcand needs to fire his pollster.
3. Amash wins 57-43.  Probably not enough to scare away future primary challengers.
4. Moolenaar wins 52-36-11.  Never underestimate the Midland establishment.  I rated this a tossup when Mitchell led by 23.
6. Bussler gets 29% against Upton, confirming my suspicion that about 30% is the anti-Upton baseline in the GOP primary.
8. Bishop wins 60-40. No shock.  Schertzing survives a scare 43-38 in the dem primary.
11. David Trott wins 66-34 after Bentivolio ran a terrible campaign.  McKenzie barely wins dem primary 34-32.  Safe R.
13. Conyers wins 75-25.  Being on the ballot helps.
14. Brenda Lawrence wins 36-32-31 over Hobbs and Clarke.

Michigan State Senate:
2 (D) Johnson wins easily 63-22.
4 (D) Smith holds off Tlaib 52-41 after the race was initially miscalled.
5 (D) Knezek (white dem) leads Jackson (pro-life) 29-25.
11 (D) Gregory wins by 117 votes, 35-34-31.
13 (R) Knollenberg wins by 72 votes over Rocky and Moss 36-36-20. Good.
13 (D) Ryan Fishman raised 211K and lost 55-45 to Cyndi Peltonen, who raised 7K.  Hahahaha!  Move to Safe R.
15 (R) Mike Kowall holds off Matt Maddock by a relatively narrow 50-43.
20 (R) Margaret O’Brien wins 77-23.
28 (R) MacGregor beats Green 68-32.
31 (R) Mike Green beats Kevin Daley 49-46.
32 (D) Oakes beats Lewis 62-38.
34 (R) Hansen beats Sundquist 62-38.
37 (R) Schmidt beats MacMaster 55-45.  Boo.  MacMaster only won Cheboygan County.

Michigan State House:
1 (D) Felon Brian Banks wins 43-36.
19 (R) Laura Cox wins easily 73-27.
36 (R) Lucido beats Grot 51-49.  UAW wins.
38 (R) Crawford beats Lauffer 59-41.
39 (R) Kesto holds off O’Hagan 55-39.
42 (R) Lana Theis beats Rich Perlberg 50-26.  Good.
43 (R) Tedder beats Schroeder and Aliaga 31-29-22.
44 (R) Runestad wins 36-33.  Good.
45 (R) Webber beats Avery 46-43.
46 (R) Jacobsen holds off Mark Reilly 56-44.
47 (R) Vaupel beats Day 42-37.
56 (R) Sheppard beats Kubiske 67-33.  Good.
58 (R) Eric Leutheuser win with 34%.
59 (R) Aaron Miller wins with 38%.  Complete shock.  Miller is a 27-year-old teacher and distant friend of mine.
60 (D) Jon Hoadley beats David Buskirk 59-27.  Gay beats union.
61 (R) Iden beats Stinchcomb 55-45.
62 (R) Bizon beats Kale 55-45. (D) Helmboldt wins with 39%.
63 (R) Maturen beats Potter 53-47.
65 (R) Roberts wins with 26%.
73 (R) Afendoulis wins with 36%.
76 (R) DeJonge beats Allard 44-37.
79 (R) Pscholka holds off Duran 66-34.
80 (R) Cindy Gamrat wins 42-29-25 with most in.  Good.
82 (R) Todd Courser beats Jan Peabody 37-33.
84 (R) Canfield wins with 31%.
86 (R) Lyons holds off Rigas 71-29.
90 (R) Garcia beats Haveman 50-30.
95 (D) Guerra beats Braddock 58-42.
98 (R) Gary Glenn beats Karl Ieuter 51-49.
104 (R) Larry Inman wins with 21%.
105 (R) Triston Cole romps 63-29.  Good.
107 (R) Lee Chatfield beats incumbent Frank Foster 54-46.  Big win for conservatives.

Wayne County Executive:
Warren Evans wins with 46%. William Wild second with 24%. Incumbent Robert Ficano finished fifth with only 6%.

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1. Michigan Code: Act 451, Section 380.10 Rights of parents and legal guardians; duties of public schools.

“It is the natural, fundamental right of parents and legal guardians to determine and direct the care, teaching, and education of their children. The public schools of this state serve the needs of the pupils by cooperating with the pupil’s parents and legal guardians to develop the pupil’s intellectual capabilities and vocational skills in a safe and positive environment.”

History: Add. 1995, Act 289, Eff. July 1, 1996
Popular Name: Act 451

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Michigan has no contested statewide primaries on the ballot on August 5.  Governor Rick Snyder and his democrat challenger Mark Schauer are unopposed.  So are US Senate candidates Terri Lynn Land and Gary Peters.  But there is plenty of action further down the ballot.  Polls close at 8PM Eastern except in the extreme western UP.

Results: SOS AP Election Magic

2014 Michigan Congressional Races
MI-1 (R) (Lean Benishek) In 2010, Dr. Dan Benishek won an open seat vacated by democrat Rep. Bart Stupak against democrat state Rep. Gary McDowell 52-41 and won the rematch 48.1-47.6 in 2012.  Benishek has generally voted with the leadership, displeasing some of his former Tea Party supporters.  He is being challenged by Tea Partyer Alan Arcand, who was seen as a longshot, but recently released a poll claiming that he leads 56-44.

MI-3 (R) (Likely Amash) Republican state rep. Justin Amash won the primary to replace moderate Republican Vern Ehlers, in 2010. He won 60-37 in 2010 and 53-44 in 2012 over former state rep Steve Pestka. Amash is a libertarian in the mold of Rep. Ron Paul. He has stepped on some toes in Washington, most notably getting into spats with the NRA and Michigan Right to Life.  He is being challenged in the primary by moderate businessman Brian Ellis, who has significant self-funding and support from the Chamber of Commerce.  Amash has support from AFP and Club for Growth.  A recent poll showed Amash leading 51-31.

MI-4 (R) (Tossup) Republican Dave Camp, who has been winning big margins in this district since 1990, is retiring.  Conservative state senator John Moolenaar of Midland and self-funding businessman Paul Mitchell are running.  Mitchell attacked Moolenaar (somewhat dishonestly) from the right, and spent his way to an early lead.  But Moolenaar has the support of the Midland establishment (including Camp and AG Bill Schuette), national conservatives such as Mike Lee and Rick Santorum, and Michigan Right to Life and NRA.  Recent polls have shown the race a tie.  Tea Party candidate Peter Konetchy, a businessman from Roscommon who ran for Senate in 2012, had announced a primary challenge to Camp, but has not attracted much support.

MI-6 (R) (Safe Upton) Moderate Republican Fred Upton is being challenged by libertarian Jim Bussler, who has not attracted much support.

MI-8 (R) (Lean Bishop) Republican Mike Rogers, who has won big margins since 2000, announced his retirement late in the cycle.  Former state senator Mike Bishop of NE Oakland is running. Tea Party favorite state rep. Tom McMillin announced that he will run for this seat rather than state senate.  Both are from Rochester Hills.
(D) (Likely Schertzing)  Ingham County Treasurer Eric Schertzing is the preferred democrat candidate.  State demographer Ken Darga, CMU Professor Susan Grettenberger, and Jeffrey Hank are also running.

MI-11 (R)  (Lean Trott) Tea Party Republican Kerry Bentivolio became an “accidental congressman” in 2012 after incumbent Thad McCotter was disqualified in a petition fraud scandal. A coalition of establishment Republicans endorsed a write-in campaign by former state senator Nancy Cassis, but Bentivolio won 65-35.  He defeated democrat Canton Township Trustee Taj Syed 50.8-44.4.  Since then, Bentivolio has mostly kept his head down and voted a conservative line.  He is being challenged in the primary by foreclosure lawyer David Trott, who has the support of the Oakland County establishment.  Bentivolio has run a weak campaign and seems likely to lose.
(D) (Lean McKenzie) Democrats Bobby McKenzie, Nancy Skinner, Anil Kumar, and LaRouchie Bill Roberts are running.

MI-12 (D)  (Safe Dingell) Democrat John Dingell, in Congress for over 58 years since Eisenhower’s first term, is finally retiring.  Dingell’s wife Debbie Dingell is running to succeed him.  Attorney Ray Mullins is also running.

MI-13 (D) (Lean Conyers) This district has been represented by democrat John Conyers since 1964. Conyers’ image has been tarnished since his wife Monica, formerly Detroit city council president, pled guilty to bribery and served time in federal prison.  Conyers won the 2012 primary 55% to 18% for Glenn Anderson, 13% for Shanelle Jackson, and 10% for Bert Johnson.  Conyers was nearly disqualified due to having signature gatherers who were not registered to vote, but a judge ordered him back on the ballot.  He is being challenged this year by Pastor Horace Sheffield, who has his own ethical problems.

MI-14 (D)  (Lean Clarke) This district had an interesting primary in 2012.  Congressman Gary Peters, first elected in 2008, ran here after his old 9th district was split into four pieces.  Peters did very well in endorsements and fundraising, and he won this majority black district 47-35-13 over fellow Congressman Hansen Clarke and Southfield mayor Brenda Lawrence.  Peters is now running for Senate, so the district is open.  Lawrence, state rep. Rudy Hobbs, Clarke, and Burgess Foster are running.  Hobbs has led in fundraising and endorsements but struggled to turn this into votes.  Clarke has a base of support in Detroit.

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