Only 71.7% of working age adults (18-65) are employed in Michigan
Yet some folks might not consider the actual ‘not employed’ number if going by articles which can be misread. Yesterday’s CapCon headline reads:
“There are 314,000 fewer people taking unemployment benefits than in 2009”
And it really sounds amazing!
Curiously, the hockey stick statistic starts at a time in 2009, two years before former governor Jennifer Granholm left office. And Inquiring minds might want to know what happened in those two years; or perhaps the story of a comeback under ‘certain’ leadership might be altered? Capcon notes:
There were 363,212 people collecting unemployment as of Jan. 24, 2009. That number dropped to 49,060 as of June 20, 2015, according to the U.S. Department of Labor.
“Michigan’s growing economy is putting people back to work,” said James Hohman, the assistant director of fiscal policy at the Mackinac Center for Public Policy. “Fewer people on unemployment insurance is one of the added benefits.”
But it means little, if anything.
It is a disappointing attempt to demonstrate a strong economy without other supporting statistics. (‘Because we say Michigan has a growing economy, it must. And one indicator that is dependent on many things – we don’t talk about – quite obviously reinforces that fact.’) It leaves out other relevant information, that tells another story.
Further in the article:
“In coming out of that era, the state experienced one of the steepest drops in unemployment rates in its history. The state’s unemployment rate went from 14.9 percent in June 2009 to 5.4 percent in April 2015. The unemployment rate was 5.5 percent in May.”
Yeah, a nearly 10% drop!
Drop all the phony baloney unemployed numbers ‘dropping,’ ‘rising,’ blah blah blah. The reality is that of the total population (est) 9,930,877 for 2015 in Michigan, only 4,486,864 are employed. Given that 22% are under 18, and 15% are 65 and over it leaves us with 63% working age; of which only 71.7% of those are employed. 4,486,864 of 6,256,453 working age adults (18-65 years)
The ACTUAL number of working age unemployed is 28.3%
And THAT number does not indicate the number of hours worked. When we look at the current trends of business employment management, we find that hours are being cut to minimums to avoid government mandates; some of which seem to be supported by the current Michigan executive. From IBD a year ago.
“In the interest of an informed debate, we’ve compiled a list of job actions with strong proof that ObamaCare’s employer mandate is behind cuts to work hours or staffing levels. As of September 5th, our ObamaCare scorecard included 450 employers with more than 100 school districts among them. Recently, IBD explained that a big minimum wage hike alongside the employer mandate would add to pressure on employers to cut workers to part-time, complicating the goal of reducing inequality.”
They have also compiled an excel list of businesses and organizations with specific actions supporting the thesis.
Oh, and sorry CNN, nice propaganda attempt.
Reality on the ground is that there are likely more employees but working fewer hours. Add to this, the number of people who have simply abandoned job searches, and those who are working for less than they have made previously, and its hard to look at the “comeback” with any level of confidence. Perspective often times disagrees with spin.
But we all ‘know’ that stuff right?
So lets take a look at the actual changes from 2009 till 2015 that are the ‘alternative’ measuring sticks, shall we?
In 2009, the population of Michigan was 9,969,727, the number of working age adults (18-65) was 6,368,884, and the employed population was 4,882,810. (see historic data for independent confirmation) Revealing 76.7% of employable age adults had employment; with a 23.3% unemployment rate.
More simply, In 2009, 76.7% of working aged adults had jobs. Likely better jobs, and with more hours, and a good number of those had insurance that wasn’t a modified version of welfare. In 2015, 71.7% of working age adults have jobs. Percentage-wise, Michigan is back peddling, right?
Even leaving out the arguably subjective ‘better jobs’ premise, and allowing for some variance due to age shift, it hardly jumps the ‘relentlessly positive’ chasm presented by a misapplied study of jobless claims dropping by nearly 10%.