Michigan Department of Corrections

Recidivism Is Worse Than We Have Been Told

Michigan has been at the forefront of ‘criminal justice reform’, which is newspeak for prison population reduction. In just a few years, Michigan has driven the MDoC prison population down 18%. Democrats love criminal justice reform because it gets one of their major constituencies back on the streets, and voting. Republicans love criminal justice reform because it cuts prison spending, which has become a bottomless pit with all the various mandates. Both of these views are decidedly near term.
The question for non criminal Michigan residents is longer term: will crime rates rise as more prisoners spend less time incarcerated and more time in your neighborhood?

A study just released by the Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics undermines the case for criminal justice reforms intended to reduce prison populations. This study contradicts previous studies which showed much lower rates of recidivism, probably because it better tracks released prisoners who have moved to other states and also looks at a longer time frame.

This BJS study followed 67,966 state prisoners released in 2005, in 30 states, over the 9 year period following their release. This was a statistically representative sample (16.8%) of the 404,638 prisoners released that year in those 30 states. The BJS study included 2,603 Michigan individuals; sampled from the 12,177 releases from MDoC custody during 2005.

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Governor Snyder's 'Smart Justice' Improves The Risk/Reward Payoff For Armed Criminals

Michigan House Bills 4419/4420, Proposed Substitute H-3, gut Michigan’s 25 year old mandatory minimum sentences for crimes committed with firearms. Introduced by Republican Representative Kurt Heise (R-20th) of Plymouth and co-authored by 28 bleeding heart Republicans (4) and Democrats (24), these bills:

1. Convert Michigan’s long standing mandatory 2/5/10 year minimum sentences for criminals using firearms into maximum sentences

2. Allow ‘use of firearms’ sentences to be served concurrently with the underlying crime sentences for the first time

3. Allow prisoners serving ‘use of firearms’ sentences to be paroled prior to completing even these sentences

Now the proponents of ‘Smart Justice’ are telling the public that their effort will:

– reduce the number of ‘non violent prisoners’ held in Michigan prisons

– reduce the price Michigan pays for incarceration

As you might imagine, this is quite attractive to Michigan politicians who just got slapped down on Proposal 1. The Michigan Department of Corrections consumes $ 2 billion in General Fund revenues every year. Roughly 20% of the total General Fund.

Governor Snyder kicked off this issue back in early March with his Special Message to the Legislature on Public Safety. The primary public advocate driving his ‘Smart Justice’ sentencing reforms is one Barbara Levine, the Assistant Director of Research and Policy at the Citizens Alliance on Prisons and Public Policy and one of Governor Snyder’s appointees on Michigan’s new Criminal Justice Policy Commission. She just released a massive study titled “10,000 fewer Michigan prisoners: Strategies to reach the goal”. This could produce up to a 23% drop in prison spending, something on the order of $ 450 million a year. A lot of new Lansing office buildings with views and more idle train cars in Owosso. A Pavlovian metronome irresistibly beckoning our state politicians.

But how much would it cost Michigan residents in crime taxes?