Tag: redistricting (page 3)

Along with congressional and state senate maps, the state legislature will also redistrict the state house of representatives. The current state house map was drawn by Republicans, but has hardly any partisan slant at all. Its architects thought it would elect a large Republican majority, but control shifted to democrats in 2006 and 2008 before returning to Republicans in 2010.

Michigan Congressional Redistricting: Two Possible Maps
Michigan Redistricting: Two Possible State Senate Maps

See the current state house map here: MICHIGAN'S 110 HOUSE DISTRICTS

State house control is more likely to vary since representatives are limited to three two-year terms and elections are held in both presidential and off-years, unlike the state senate.

Many of the rules for legislative district maps are the same as for congressional district maps. In particular, the Apol standards require that there be a small number of county and city/township breaks. These standards cannot legally bind future redistricting plans (LaRoux v. Secretary of State), but it is likely that any plan passed will at least come close to following them.

One major difference between the congressional and legislative standards is that populations for legislative districts are not required to be exact. They must be within 5% of the ideal population. For the Michigan House of Representatives, the ideal population is 9983640/110=89851. The lower and upper thresholds are thus 85359 and 94343.

This makes it easier to avoid breaks. Many counties do not need to be broken at all. The first part of my analysis of the state house redistricting will focus on Wayne County. Wayne's ideal number of districts is 20.26, so the ideal population for a district is 91029.

With the release of Michigan's census numbers last month, redistricting season is well underway. I previously proposed two congressional district maps, and Republican Michigander has offered his 10-4 plan as well.

Michigan Congressional Redistricting: Two Possible Maps
Dan's 10-4 GOP Redistricting Map Part one (1-5) Part two (6-10) Part three (10-14)

While congressional lines attract the most attention, state legislative lines will also be redrawn. This article proposes two possible maps for the Michigan state senate. The state senate is particularly key since it has been the bulwark against total democrat control in Michigan since 1983.

Many of the rules for legislative district maps are the same as for congressional district maps. In particular, the Apol standards require that there be a small number of county and city/township breaks. These standards cannot legally bind future redistricting plans (LaRoux v. Secretary of State), but it is likely that any plan passed will at least come close to following them.

Now that Michigan's census figures have been released, the process of redistricting can begin. With Republicans controlling the process this decade, they are expected to draw maps favorable to their interests. This article considers what such a congressional district map might look like.

Federal law mandates that congressional districts must have population as equal as possible. Michigan will drop from 15 to 14 districts, each of which must have 705,974 or 705975 people. Republicans currently have a 9-6 majority in the congressional delegation.

The Voting Rights Act, as interpreted by the courts, requires that black and Hispanic majority districts be drawn when reasonably possible. In Michigan, there must be two black-majority districts in the Detroit area.

State standards require that districts be contiguous by land with no cut-points. It also requires that there not be unreasonably many breaks of counties and cities/townships. However, the Michigan Supreme Court ruled in the case LaRoux v. Secretary of State (2001) that these standards cannot bind future legislatures, as any new redistricting plan passed into law would supersede the old law.

Census shocker: Detroit's population falls to 713,000
Interactive map: 2010 Census information, by state

Michigan's population was earlier announced to be 9883640, down .6% from 2000.

This means that the ideal district sizes are
Congress: 658,909
State senate: 260,096
State house: 89,851

The new number coming out...
Detroit: 713,777, down 25.3% from 952047.

Bad - So called nonpartisan commissions. Nonpartisan does not, never did, and never will mean the same as nonbiased. Most people who follow the issue want nonbiased redistricting. There's a difference. Usually commission based redistricting results in incumbent protection. Don't rock the boat. Keep as many people happy as possible. These maps are usually the case when you have split control of the state government. The worst part about these so called nonpartisan commissioners is that there is no recourse for bad maps by these biased politicians. That's what commissions are made up of. Politicians. We can't vote the commissioners out for screwing us.

Good would leave this out of the hands of politicians as much as possible. The true fair system would be a map made up of as few municipal breaks as possible. That as many maps with that system, put them in random and may the best map win.

Bad with recourse is what we have now. We are Republicans were lucky, and we can't always count on that. We took the house, the state senate, and we're still unsure if we have the governor's mansion or not. I'm still not sold on Snyder. The current system is where the state legislature/governor draws the boundaries. It's the system in most states. Michigan has some guidelines in place by statute limiting municipal breaks and shapes of the district.

The talking heads always have a fit every 10 years, and the Argus recently had some comments. Joe Hune told the truth, and they didn't understand it with two editorials Feb 6th and 17th.

First, on the 6th.

Hune says not to worry. In a story our paper published Friday, he said there are guidelines to prevent partisanship from interfering with the results.

"There isn't that much room for politics and play and gerrymandering. The standards we have in place just don't allow that," Hune said.

And he said it with a straight face.

The Center for Michigan, a liberal, pseudo-centrist think tank in Ann Arbor, recently published a 'study' attacking the redistricting process in Michigan.

REDRAWING MICHIGAN
How redistricting predetermines many election results and often leaves voters without competitive choices at the polls

The report is cowritten by Susan Demas and John Bebow. Demas is a liberal reporter and blogger.

The 'study' argues that

1. Michigan legislative elections are uncompetitive.
   
2. This is due to redistricting, particularly the 2001 plan passed by Republicans.
   
3. This lack of competitiveness 'disenfranchises' Michigan voters.
   
4. Michigan's legislative districts should be drawn to create more 'competitive' districts.

I'm not into the Chicago way, but I am Irish by blood, and we never stop fighting, either in politics or other matters. I'm not interested in online petitions. They are a waste of time. I'm interested in getting this damn thing modified and better yet repealed.

The problem with politics is patience and short memories. Most people don't have any patience, or follow politics enough to have long memories. There is a way to repeal Obamacare, and it's much harder than just having votes. It's a long process, and it will take years. It took 10 years just for the ugly gun ban to expire, and that's only with a sunset provision. Obamacare CAN be repealed, but it won't be easy.

The 19th, you'll remember, was technically vacated at the beginning of the year when Mark Schauer broke his word to his constituents and took a seat in Congress, becoming a part of what polling data consistently tells us is one of the least popular legislative bodies in American history.  

Our readers in Calhoun and Jackson Counties, their friends and neighbors, have been without representation in Michigan's upper legislative chamber for the last one-hundred-plus days and will be until the end of 2009.  The Granholm-Cherry administration, fearing a potential partisan swing in the District and an expanded GOP majority in the Senate, delayed announcing a special election for months.  

Remember, they've got a lot more than one Senate seat to lose.  Whoever winds up being the incumbent in the 19th come the 2010 general elections will have a leg-up on the challenger.  Should the Democrats lose the 19th their path to taking control of the Senate becomes significantly more difficult with nothing less than the holy grail of legislative tasks at stake... redistricting.  

Whoever controls the Supreme Court and the state Senate come January 2011 will control legislative redistricting and partisan electoral potential for the next decade.

The man who has the liberals spooked?  Mike Nofs.

Read on...