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    Tag: redistricting

    2014 Michigan State Senate Elections

    By Conservative First, Section News
    Posted on Sun Apr 21, 2013 at 03:29:10 AM EST
    Tags: Michigan state senate, redistricting (all tags)

    Cross-posted at The Western Right,  Right Michigan, and Red Racing Horses.

    All 38 seats in the Michigan Senate are up for election in 2014. Only seven senators are term-limited, the rest can seek reelection. Republicans currently have a 26-12 supermajority, and have controlled the senate for the past 30 years (since 1983).

    Republican control of the state senate has prevented democrats from complete control of Michigan's government, and stopped a lot of bad things from being passed.  More recently, the Republican supermajority has prevented some of Governor Snyder's more liberal plans from being implemented.

    Fortunately for Republicans, the Michigan state senate is up only in midterms, which favor Republicans much more than presidential years.  2010 was very good to the Michigan GOP.  Republicans picked up four state senate seats (and one earlier in a 2009 special election).

    Republicans had complete control of redistricting this cycle.  They crafted a very effective map.  One democrat district was eliminated in Wayne County and replaced by a Republican one in west Michigan.  Four other dem districts were made more dem.  Most of the potentially vulnerable Republican seats were made more Republicans, though a couple got slightly worse due to the need to avoid splitting counties.  The new map is actually cleaner than the old one, excluding the Detroit districts, which are ugly for VRA reasons.

    (1 comment, 2868 words in story) Full Story

    2012 Michigan General Election Preview

    By Conservative First, Section News
    Posted on Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 08:31:12 PM EST
    Tags: Debbie Stabenow, Pete Hoekstra, Mitt Romney, redistricting (all tags)

    Cross-posted at The Western Right,  Right Michigan, and Red Racing Horses.

    This is an overview of competitive November 6 general election races in Michigan in 2012.  More detailed profiles of some of the races are linked within the article.

    President (Michigan) Leans democrat
    Michigan leans slightly to the left in Presidential elections. This means that democrats need to win Michigan to win the White House, but Republicans don't. Michigan still has a weak economy thanks to eight years of democrat Governor Jennifer Granholm. Mitt Romney can still win here (current RCP average is Obama +4), but if he does, he's already won elsewhere.

    US Senate Likely democrat
    Democrat Senator Debbie Stabenow is seeking a third term. The Republican nominee is Pete Hoekstra, former congressman who represented the 2nd district in West Michigan 1992-2010. He won a contested primary that sapped resources.  Hoekstra aired a controversial China ad and labeled Stabenow the worst senator ever, but never found support beyond the Republican base.  The RCP average is Stabenow +13.

    (4 comments, 1063 words in story) Full Story

    A Message To Our Legislators - Beware False Choices

    2012 Michigan August Primary Preview

    By Conservative First, Section News
    Posted on Mon Aug 06, 2012 at 06:58:44 AM EST
    Tags: 2012 August Primary, state house, redistricting (all tags)

    Cross-posted at The Western Right,  Right Michigan, and Red Racing Horses.

    This is a guide to the key races in Michigan's August primary.

    US Senate The biggest race is the battle for the Republican nomination for US Senate to take on democrat Senator Debbie Stabenow, who is seeking a third term. The favorite is Pete Hoekstra, former congressman who represented the 2nd district in West Michigan 1992-2010. He lost the Republican primary for governor in 2010.  His main competitor is Clark Durant, businessman and former member of the state board of education (1994-98), who has significant Tea Party support.  Social conservative Randy Hekman, former Kent county judge, is also running.  Gary Glenn, a conservative activist who had some Tea Party support, dropped out several weeks before the primary and endorsed Durant. Hoekstra is the favorite, leading in the polls and in fundraising, but Durant has been gaining momentum.

    (5 comments, 1076 words in story) Full Story

    2012 Michigan State House Races

    By Conservative First, Section News
    Posted on Sat Jun 02, 2012 at 11:50:23 PM EST
    Tags: state house, redistricting (all tags)

    Cross-posted at The Western Right, Right Michigan, and  Red Racing Horses.

    All 110 seats in the Michigan House of Representatives will be up for election in November.  Republicans currently hold a 63-47 majority, following a 67-43 democrat majority before 2010.  There are "only" 22 open seats following many members being term-limited, defeated, or seeking other office in 2010.

    (1 comment, 1508 words in story) Full Story

    2012 Michigan Congressional Races

    By Conservative First, Section News
    Posted on Tue May 15, 2012 at 06:33:47 PM EST
    Tags: congress, redistricting (all tags)

    This is an update of an earlier article following the Michigan filing deadline.

    Cross-posted at  The Western Right,  Right Michigan, and Red Racing Horses.

    Michigan will see a number of interesting congressional races in 2012.

    Michigan will lose a congressional seat, going from 15 to 14.  Redistricting changed the congressional map, particularly in eastern Michigan.

    (2 comments, 1388 words in story) Full Story

    Michigan Redistricting: Court of Appeals

    By Conservative First, Section News
    Posted on Sun Feb 26, 2012 at 12:26:40 PM EST
    Tags: redistricting, Court of Appeals (all tags)

    The Michigan legislature recently passed a redistricting plan for the Court of Appeals.  This court is below the Michigan Supreme Court.  It consists of 28 judges (2 currently vacant), which may soon be reduced to 24 under a bill to reduce the number of judges passed in Lansing.  The court is split into four districts based in Detroit, Troy, Lansing, and Grand Rapids.

    Here is the new district map.

    (356 words in story) Full Story

    "Detroit is not a bastion of Republican votes and it never will be."

    By Corinthian Scales, Section News
    Posted on Wed Aug 10, 2011 at 12:55:08 PM EST
    Tags: MLBC, Rep. Durhal, Kwame Kilpatrick, Detroit, Redistricting, Levin, Feckless Brewer, Race Warlords, Poverty Plantations, The Democratic Party Way (all tags)

    Never?    Never  say  NEVER.

    Folks, those are the words of Michigan Legislative Black Caucus Chair, State Representative Fred Durhal Jr. (D-6).   Full quote.

    "Why mess with Detroit," Durhal said. "Detroit is not a bastion of Republican votes and it never will be."

    Rep. Durhal, why "mess" with Detroit?  C'mon!  Rep. Durhal, your race card is showing...

    DETROIT (AP) -- For over a month, Detroit has been reeling from new census numbers that showed the city lost more population in the last 10 years than anyone realized -- 230,000 or about 25 percent. City officials are trying to get the estimate increased, arguing that thousands of residents went uncounted.

    More troubling is the outlook for the city's next 10 years. Rather than a rebound, which community leaders are publicly talking up, demographers are projecting losses of another 100,000 to 200,000 people, leaving the city somewhere between Tucson, Ariz., and Memphis in size:- 500,000-plus, only without much of a middle class.

    Nope.  It couldn't be the failed, singular Democratic Party rule in Detroit since Mayor Jerome Cavanagh that's responsible for finally driving another 25% of the people out in 2010.  Nothing to see here, folks.

    Could it be Kwame?

    (2 comments, 569 words in story) Full Story

    Michigan Redistricting: Alternative State House Map

    By Conservative First, Section News
    Posted on Mon Jul 11, 2011 at 01:58:11 AM EST
    Tags: redistricting, census, state house, Republicans (all tags)

    The legislative portion of Michigan redistricting is finished, assuming Governor Snyder signs the maps passed by the legislature.  I have highly praised the congressional and state senate maps.  The state house map is another story.

    I proposed my own state house map in four parts here:

    Michigan Redistricting: State House Part I: Wayne County
    Michigan Redistricting: State House Part II: Oakland and Genesee
    Michigan Redistricting: State House Part III: Macomb and the Thumb
    Michigan Redistricting: State House Part IV: The Rest of the State

    The Republican state house map was quite a bit different.  Part of this was due to the desire to protect existing districts.  This led to districts being distributed differently in the Thumb, south-central Michigan, and the northeastern Lower Peninsula.

    Even on these terms, though, some parts of the map still perplex me.  I decided to take another crack at the state house map.  This time, I started with the Republican map and made changes in particular areas.  Since my first map, Dave's Redistricting App has added some election data for Michigan, allowing for more precise analysis.

    I. Wayne County

    I don't know what Republicans were thinking in Wayne County.  Currently Wayne has three Republicans.  Two are strengthened under the new map.  There is one more district containing the majority of Canton and Van Buren that is winnable.

    (5 comments, 1612 words in story) Full Story

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