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    Who are the NERD fund donors Mr Snyder?

    Raise the curtain.

    Ballparking The Whip Count


    By Kevin Rex Heine, Section News
    Posted on Mon Jun 17, 2013 at 11:14:14 PM EST
    Tags: 2013-HB-4714, House Roll Call 241 (2013), 2013-HB-4111, House Roll Call 11 (2013), 2011 Senate Bill 693, Senate Roll Call 663 (2012), integrity argument, causa provocare, Michigan Banana Republican Party, U. S. Constitution Amendment X, State Sovereignty, constitutionally-restrained government, Supremacy Clause abuse, illusion of state control, nullification vs. enabling, legislative malfeasance, liberty-minded network, acta non verba, empowered grassroots operation, sending a message, naming names and identifying targets, heavy-handed bifarceisanship, politician paper training, "Mastermind" vs. "Oracle", corinthian scales vs. absolute standard, Reagan's Eleventh Commandment, creeping progressivism (all tags)

    According to the Michigan Campaign For Liberty:

    "Urgent: getting this information to activists depends on folks sharing this. Please help.

    Currently (1:37 a.m.) all of the websites for Republican State Senators are down.  This is very curious considering the democrat sites are all working and the fact that not having email or a contact form will disenfranchise a lot of people, greatly reducing the number of grassroots activists who contact their legislators.

    Today, massive numbers of limited government activists will be trying to contact their senators to tell them to vote no on ObamaCare.

    To help activists, we provided all contact info on our website."

    And I've provided it below, along with some additional intel.


    Now, to be fair, if you Google searched a particular State Senator specifically his/her page would open just fine.  You could also use the "contact" link on their Michigan Votes profile to bring up their office page.  But if you tried to go to your senator's page from the main senate contact list page, or if you tried to pull up the Republican Caucus from that page (or from anywhere), no dice, though the democrat pages (including the caucus homepage) came up just fine.

    Evidently, the party "leadership" has made up their mind how they want the vote to go this week on 2013-HB-4714 and don't want us liberty-minded network types peeling off enough votes that Randy Richardville (RINO, District 17, Monroe) will be forced to call the question without a majority of his own caucus onboard with this particular act of legislative malfeasance.  Worse, enough phone calls and/or e-mails and/or in-person visits to these senators might just result in solidifying enough "nay" votes to kill this thing if the question is put before the summer recess.  So these geniuses seemed to figure that breaking the links will silence the voices of their constituency.  That's unfortunate, now we're going to have to spend potentially the rest of the week playing hardball.

    Funny thing, though; the intel file that I would have sworn I had buried in my desk drawer (that I thought had the personal phone numbers and home addresses of each of these senators) turned out to be a house-only file . . . from December 2010, thus quite useless for my original intent.  So my wife (a professional genealogist who knows how to dig up this information) and I started doing address lookups, with the idea in mind that I might still be able to get the original version of this article (or something close to it) up early enough that the original purpose could still be realized.

    Also, I'd noticed that whatever was broken on the Republican Caucus page had been fixed (around lunchtime), and I'm sure that some suitable excuse has been concocted.  Nevertheless, I still hold that our senators need to be reminded, as politely and as personally as possible, that there is an expectation that we have of them; failing to measure up will have consequences.  As I was doing follow-up phone calls to verify the address look-ups that Christie and I were doing, I started getting a good bit of information on where particular senators stood on the issue, and thus this article mutated quickly into a session-eve whip count estimate.  Some of the intel might interest you.

    Following is as complete a list as I have of the contact information on each member of the Republican Senate Caucus (listed alphabetically by surname).  I've also included their position on 2013 House Bill 4714, as of the most recent intel (changed where I was unable to confirm it personally):

    Booher, Darwin (District 35, Evart)

    • Office Phone:  517-373-1725 / 866-305-2135
    • Office Fax:  517-373-0741
    • Office Location:  520 Farnum Building
    • Office E-mail:  sendbooher@senate.michigan.gov
    • Assistant Majority Whip
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  personally confirmed leaning "nay" (his comment to me was that he wants to know how we're going to pay for this when the federal money dries up, and where the reforms are that the lobbyists are claiming) . . . voted "yea" on 2011-SB-693, but would have voted "nay" on 2013-HB-4111
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes
    • Campaign address and phone:  227 North Main Street / 231-734-0425

    Brandenburg, Jack (District 11, Harrison Township)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-7670
    • Office Fax:  517-373-5958
    • Office Location:  605 Farnum Building
    • Office E-mail:  senjbrandenburg@senate.michigan.gov
    • Majority Whip
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  believed "nay"
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes (and potentially facing a primary challenge)
    • Campaign address and phone:  25 Eldredge Street, Mt Clemens / 810-465-7144

    Calley, Brian (District n/a, Portland)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-6800
    • Office Fax:  517-241-3956
    • Office Location:  215 Capitol Building
    • Office E-mail:  Executive Assistant Kelli Saunders (saundersk1@michigan.gov)
    • Lieutenant Governor (and thus Senate President)
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  unknown, but we don't expect him to oppose the governor if he has to cast a tie-breaking vote
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes

    Casperson, Tom (District 38, Escanaba)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-7840 / 866-305-2038
    • Office Fax:  517-373-3932
    • Office Location:  705 Farnum Building
    • Office E-mail:  sentcasperson@senate.michigan.gov
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  unknown at this time
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes
    • Campaign address and phone:  P. O. Box 545, Escanaba / 906-789-0553

    Caswell, Bruce (District 16, Hillsdale)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-5932 / 866-305-0316
    • Office Fax:  517-373-5944
    • Office Location:  720 Farnum Building
    • Office E-mail:  senbcaswell@senate.michigan.gov
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  confirmed leans "nay" at this time, though he did vote "yea" on 2011-SB-693 . . . his office did, however, confirm for me that the senator flatly opposes any expansion of the Medicaid program (to the extent that he introduced 2013-SB-0041 back on January 16th, 2013, which prohibits Michigan from expanding Medicaid eligibility consistent with ObamaCare, and 2013-SB-0422 on June 11th, 2013, which creates a low-income health plan, and low-income health plan trust fund, funded and operated entirely by the state)
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes
    • Campaign address and phone:  8940 East Bacon Road, Hillsdale / 517-523-3067

    Colbeck, Patrick (District 7, Canton)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-7350 / 866-272-7307
    • Office Fax:  517-373-9228
    • Office Location:  1020 Farnum Building
    • Office E-mail:  senpcolbeck@senate.mi.gov
    • Assistant Majority Caucus Chair
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  confirmed "nay"
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes
    • Campaign address and phone:  P. O. Box 871583, Canton / 734-708-0973

    Emmons, Judy (District 33, Sheridan)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-3760
    • Office Fax:  517-373-8661
    • Office Location:  1005 Farnum Building
    • Office E-mail:  senjemmons@senate.michigan.gov
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  unknown at this time, but did vote "yea" on 2011-SB-693
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes
    • Campaign address and phone:  506 East Carson City Road / 517-896-7638

    Green, Mike (District 31, Mayville)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-1777 / 866-305-2131
    • Office Fax:  517-373-5871
    • Office Location:  805 Farnum Building
    • Office E-mail:  senmgreen@senate.michigan.gov
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  confirmed "nay," though he did vote "yea" on 2011-SB-693
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes (though potentially facing a primary challenge based on other votes)
    • Campaign address and phone:  1500 East Blackmore Road / 989-928-5180

    Hansen, Goeff (District 34, Hart)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-1635
    • Office Fax:  517-373-3300
    • Office Location:  420 Farnum Building
    • Office E-mail:  senghansen@senate.michigan.gov
    • Assistant President Pro Tempore
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  confirmed leaning "yea," and did vote "yea" on 2011-SB-693
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes (and already facing a primary challenge)
    • Campaign address and phone:  P. O. Box 167, Hart / (231) 342-3772

    Hildenbrand, Dave (District 29, Lowell)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-1801
    • Office Fax:  517-373-5801
    • Office Location:  920 Farnum Building
    • Office E-mail:  sendhildenbrand@senate.michigan.gov
    • Assistant Majority Leader
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  confirmed "on the fence" at this time, but did vote "yea" on 2011-SB-693
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes
    • Campaign address and phone:  P. O. Box 1075, Grand Rapids / 517-410-2679

    Hune, Joe (District 22, Hamburg)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-2420 / 855-JOE-HUNE
    • Office Fax:  517-373-2764
    • Office Location:  505 Farnum Building
    • Office E-mail:  senjhune@senate.michigan.gov
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  confirmed "nay"
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes
    • Campaign address and phone:  4849 Hogback Road, Fowlerville / 517-525-1845

    Jansen, Mark (District 28, Cutlerville)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-0797 / 866-305-2128
    • Office Fax:  517-373-5236
    • Office Location:  S-310 Capitol Building
    • Office E-mail:  senmjansen@senate.michigan.gov
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  confirmed "on the fence," but voted "yea" on 2011-SB-693
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  termed-out

    Jones, Rick (District 24, Grand Ledge)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-3447 / 866-305-6124
    • Office Fax:  517-373-5849
    • Office Location:  915 Farnum Building
    • Office E-mail:  senrjones@senate.michigan.gov
    • Majority Caucus Chair
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  personally confirmed as a "nay" vote, though he did vote "yea" on 2011-SB-693
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes
    • Campaign address and phone:  P. O. Box 115, Grand Ledge / 517-627-7044

    Kahn, Roger (District 32, Saginaw)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-1760 / 866-305-2132
    • Office Fax:  517-373-3487
    • Office Location:  S-324 Capitol Building
    • Office E-mail:  senrkahn@senate.michigan.gov
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  believed "yea," and voted "yea" on 2011-SB-693
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  termed-out

    Kowall, Mike (District 15, White Lake)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-1758
    • Office Fax:  517-373-0938
    • Office Location:  305 Farnum Building
    • Office E-mail:  senmkowall@senate.michigan.gov
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  believed "yea," but voted "nay" on 2011-SB-693
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes
    • Campaign address and phone:  6789 Deer Hill Drive, Clarkston / 248-762-0900

    Marleau, Jim (District 12, Lake Orion)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-2417
    • Office Fax:  517-373-2694
    • Office Location:  1010 Farnum Building
    • Office E-mail:  senjmarleau@senate.michigan.gov
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  believed "yea," and voted "yea" on 2011-SB-693
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes
    • Campaign address and phone:  3181 Sandoval Drive, Lake Orion / 248-459-8091

    Meekhof, Arlan (District 30, West Olive)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-6920 / 866-305-2130
    • Office Fax:  517-373-2751
    • Office Location:  S-8 Capitol Building
    • Office E-mail:  senameekhof@senate.michigan.gov
    • Majority Floor Leader
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  confirmed leaning "nay," but did vote "yea" on 2011-SB-693
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes
    • Campaign address and phone:  9128 Oak Creek Lane, West Olive / 616-875-2012

    Moolenaar, John (District 36, Midland)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-7946
    • Office Fax:  517-373-2678
    • Office Location:  715 Farnum Building
    • Office E-mail:  senjmoolenaar@senate.michigan.gov
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  believed "nay"
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes
    • Campaign address and phone:  5915 Eastman Avenue (ste 100), Midland / 989-835-7721

    Nofs, Mike (District 19, Battle Creek)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-2426 / 888-962-6275
    • Office Fax:  517-373-2964
    • Office Location:  S-132 Capitol Building
    • Office E-mail:  senmnofs@senate.michigan.gov
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  confirmed "on the fence," but voted "nay" on 2011-SB-693
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes
    • Campaign address and phone:  5420 Beckley Road P.M.B. 350, Battle Creek / 269-441-1222

    Pappageorge, John (District 13, Troy)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-2523 / 877-SEN-13TH
    • Office Fax:  517-373-5669
    • Office Location:  S-2 Capitol Building
    • Office E-mail:  senjpappageorge@senate.michigan.gov
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  personally confirmed "on the fence," but did vote "yea" on 2011-SB-693 . . . stated he opposes both ObamaCare and the Medicaid expansion in principle, but will not comment on the bill until he's read it (so realistically, he's probably more of a "leans no")
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  termed-out

    Pavlov, Phil (District 25, St. Clair)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-7708
    • Office Fax:  517-373-1450
    • Office Location:  905 Farnum Building
    • Office E-mail:  senppavlov@senate.michigan.gov
    • Assistant Majority Floor Leader
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  believed "nay"
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes
    • Campaign address and phone:  4126 Yankee Road, St. Clair / 810-488-0964

    Proos, John (District 21, St. Joseph)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-6960
    • Office Fax:  517-373-0897
    • Office Location:  820 Farnum Building
    • Office E-mail:  senjproos@senate.michigan.gov
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  believed "nay"
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes
    • Campaign address and phone:  P. O. Box 271, St. Joseph / 269-429-0539

    Richardville, Randy (District 17, Monroe)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-3543 / 866-556-7917
    • Office Fax:  517-373-0927
    • Office Location:  S-106 Capitol Building
    • Office E-mail:  senrrichardville@senate.michigan.gov
    • Majority Leader
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  believed "yea," and also voted "yea" on 2011-SB-693
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  termed-out

    Robertson, David (District 26, Grand Blanc)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-1636 / 866-305-2126
    • Office Fax:  517-373-1453
    • Office Location:  320 Farnum Building
    • Office E-mail:  sendrobertson@senate.michigan.gov
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  believed "nay"
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes
    • Campaign address and phone:  P. O. Box 181, Grand Blanc

    Rocca, Tory (District 10, Sterling Heights)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-7315/ 866-303-0110
    • Office Fax:  517-373-3126
    • Office Location:  205 Farnum Building
    • Office E-mail:  sentrocca@senate.michigan.gov
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  believed "on the fence," but voted "nay" on 2011-SB-693
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes
    • Campaign address and phone:  12481 Starlite Court, Sterling Heights / 586-264-1726

    Schuitmaker, Tonya (District 20, Lawton)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-0793 / 866-305-2120
    • Office Fax:  517-373-5607
    • Office Location:  405 Farnum Building
    • Office E-mail:  sentschuitmaker@senate.michigan.gov
    • President Pro Tempore
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  confirmed "nay"
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes
    • Campaign address and phone:  P. O. Box 362, Paw Paw / 269-624-6439

    Walker, Howard (District 37, Traverse City)
    • Office Phone:  517-373-2413
    • Office Fax:  517-373-5144
    • Office Location:  910 Farnum Building
    • Office E-mail:  senhwalker@senate.michigan.gov
    • Position on 2013-HB-4714:  confirmed "on the fence," but voted "nay" on 2011-SB-693
    • Eligible for re-election in 2014:  yes (and potentially facing a primary challenge)
    • Campaign address and phone:  P. O. Box 1508, Traverse City / 231-922-8000

    My original intention, fifteen hours ago, was to have this up so that the liberty-minded network could spend all day pressuring the "lean nay," "on the fence," and "unknown" senators . . . as institutional retribution for the caucus page being taken down.  Also, I wanted to make sure that we had the option of contacting personally the senators who were committed to killing this thing, so as to reinforce them against the arm-twisting that's likely well underway.  Instead, what I have is a ballparked whip count of where the Senate Republican Caucus stands on House Bill 4714 (2013), in advance of an anticipated vote sometime tomorrow (though the bill still isn't on the Senate Calendar)

    Also, note that when referencing the senators' position on the issue, I've used the terms confirmed and believed.  "Confirmed" means that I've personally spoken with the senator's staff (or the senator himself), and "believed" means that I'm relying on Wes Nakagiri's intel report.  Either way, this is where the whip count in the caucus stands on the question of concurring with 2013-HB-4714, as adopted by the House:

    • 4 - confirmed or believed "yea"
    • 1 - leaning "yea"
    • 9 - unknown or "on the fence" (including Calley)
    • 2 - leaning "nay"
    • 11 - confirmed or believed "nay"

    Now I figure that at least four of those fence-sitters are "oppose" votes in disguise, and that at least one fence-sitter (other than Calley) will come down in the "support" column before Tuesday's opening gavel.  If we operate on the assumption that all 12 democrats will vote "yea" as expected, then Richardville needs only to peel off one more "undecided" vote, while Schuitmaker needs to get them all.

    Because 2013-HB-4714 isn't officially on the Senate Calendar, the vote may not be called on Tuesday . . . but that's not the scuttlebutt I was hearing today.  That the caucus website was down leads to the impression that Richardville may not allow the question to be called without at least 14 confirmed "yes" votes, so that he has an in-caucus majority, but you never know.  You have the contact information; you know the drill; make sure that your public servants remember to whom they truly answer (and keep the pressure on until Friday).

    And if this doesn't work, then we may just have to go medieval on their asses.  A Gadsden-themed rally on the capitol lawn would most certainly be in order.

    < Michigan Conservative Union On Medicaid Expansion | Miller: Obama Must Justify Syrian Rebel Aid >


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    Display: Sort:
    Thanks KRH (none / 0) (#1)
    by JGillman on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 07:28:00 AM EST
    Also I have seen the same thing happen with the GOP membership page before.  Same scenario.

    Hadn't thought about it, but now that it is mentioned, it seems curious that when there is a 'big deal', the communications seem to be throttled as much as can be.

    So the senate adjourned . . . (none / 0) (#3)
    by Kevin Rex Heine on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 11:49:31 PM EST
    . . . today without the vote being called, even after at least two "arm-twisting sessions" in the caucus room.  Channeling my "inner spook" I can think of at least four reasons for this:

    • It could be that Richardville is indeed attempting to play this straight up, and not call the vote unless he has a "majority of the majority" onboard with voting "yea."  This would mean that not only does he have to peel off every single one of the unknown/undecided votes, but also at least one current "lean oppose" vote (which I originally incorrectly tallied at 2 . . . that should have been 3, with only 10 solid "nay" votes).

    • If push comes down to shove, Snyder might pressure Richardville to call the vote if he knows he has at least 19 total votes onboard (democrats included), regardless of the caucus' whip count (because Calley will vote "yea" on final passage if a tie-breaker is necessary).  This means that Richardville has to peel off at least two fence-sitters to force a tie-breaker, and also means that he currently doesn't have them.

    • Credible backchannel scuttlebutt has it that Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D-23, East Lansing) has informed Richardville that she'll deliver all 12 members of the Senate Democrat Caucus, in exchange for one of two considerations from him: either (a) that Richardville deliver a matching number of republican votes (so that she's carrying no more than half of the governor's water), or (b) some significant legislative considerations going forward.  If this is so, then Richardville has to pull over damn near every single fence-sitter (Schuitmaker will only need to lock down two or three), or else agree to a bargain sufficiently Faustian that it'll effectively immolate the Republican brand going into 2014.

    • Also floating around in the backchannels is the rumor that the three termed-out democrats have approached President Pro Tempore Schuitmaker to offer themselves as insurance "nay" votes in exchange for procedural considerations going forward.  These considerations aren't as big a deal as what Richardville is being asked to agree to, but will allow the senators in question to get some favorable committee treatment for their legislative initiatives, and perhaps the occasional "moved for second reading" on the Senate floor (neither of which guarantee final passage, not by a long shot).

    Also, a quick walk through the elected caucus leadership shows them to be 3-7-1 on this bill (yea, nay, undecided).  This means that Richardville isn't just working against his own caucus, he's working against his caucus leadership.  Which has me wondering:  What on earth is the Governor using to secure his cooperation, against better knowledge, on a known bad idea?

    • Great report by JGillman, 06/19/2013 06:50:42 AM EST (none / 0)
    Definitely do not get... (none / 0) (#5)
    by Corinthian Scales on Wed Jun 19, 2013 at 07:34:57 AM EST
    ...all giddy, start high-fiving, and Chad Johnsoning each other on the ass.

    JenniRick Snydholm proved what Lansing Nerdpublicans are made of.



    • Absolutely. by JGillman, 06/19/2013 08:11:52 AM EST (none / 0)
    So, according to the latest official updates . . . (none / 0) (#7)
    by Kevin Rex Heine on Wed Jun 19, 2013 at 03:43:33 PM EST
    . . . on House Bill 4714 (2013), the Senate yesterday promptly suspended the rules and referred the bill to the Committee Of The Whole (as seen on page 15 of Senate Journal Number 58), which is effectively placing it "on the table" on the Senate floor for immediate call-up as soon as the Majority Leader has the votes necessary for passage.  Sure enough, a cursory review of Senate Calendar Number 59 shows the bill as Item # 68 under General Orders.  (F.Y.I., House Bill 4111 (2013) is Item # 23 in the same section on the same calendar.)

    I called around the Senate Republican Caucus today to get what I could on the record regarding their positions on this bill.  What I learned follows:

    • Booher, Darwin (District 35, Evart):  A voicemail left at the senator's office this morning hasn't yet been returned.  However, in a direct conversation with him Monday afternoon, he confirmed to me that he's "leaning nay" on this bill.

    • Brandenburg, Jack (District 11, Harrison Township):  He returned my call this morning to tell me personally that he's "totally opposed" to the bill, and has always opposed increased entitlements and the expansion of government generally.  As Majority Caucus Whip, he's committed to securing the votes necessary to ensure that the bill fails, and confirmed that the situation on passage "looks grim" at present (especially since the Majority Leader refuses to call the question until and unless he has at least 13 "yea" votes locked down in his own caucus).  The senator also expressed annoyance at the Campaign For Liberty's tactics in threatening him with a primary challenge should he vote other than "nay" on the bill.  He considers Mr. King's threat an insult to his personal, professional, and political integrity.

    • Calley, Brian (District n/a, Portland):  A voicemail left at the Lieutenant Governor's office this afternoon hasn't yet been returned, but I did hear news reports that Calley is cutting short his "Pure Michigan" road trip in the Upper Peninsula to come back and break a tie on a House Bill 4668 (2013), and potentially break a tie on House Bill 4714 (2013) as well.

    • Casperson, Tom (District 38, Escanaba):  A voicemail left at the senator's office this morning hasn't yet been returned, and his position on the bill is unknown at this time.

    • Caswell, Bruce (District 16, Hillsdale):  A voicemail left at the senator's office this morning hasn't yet been returned, but on Monday his staff reported to me that he's "leaning nay" on the bill, should the question be called.

    • Colbeck, Patrick (District 7, Canton):  His staff reported to me this morning that the senator's a "solid nay" vote on the bill, should the question be called.

    • Emmons, Judy (District 33, Sheridan):  Her staff reported to me that the senator is keeping her position and voting intentions on this bill to herself until further notice.

    • Green, Mike (District 31, Mayville):  His staff reported to me this morning that the senator's a "solid nay" vote on the bill, should the question be called, and that isn't expected to change anytime . . . ever.

    • Hansen, Goeff (District 34, Hart):  His staff reported to me that the senator's position and voting intentions on this bill are currently unknown, though on Monday they reported that he was "leaning yea" on concurrence.

    • Hildenbrand, Dave (District 29, Lowell):  His staff reported to me this morning that the senator's "on the fence" on this bill.

    • Hune, Joe (District 22, Hamburg):  His staff reported to me this morning that the senator's a "solid nay" vote on the bill, should the question be called.

    • Jansen, Mark (District 28, Cutlerville):  The senator's response to me was that he's "not in a place to commit yet" on this bill.

    • Jones, Rick (District 24, Grand Ledge):  The senator personally returned my call this morning and updated his position from our Monday afternoon conversation to "hell no" on the bill, should the question be called.

    • Kahn, Roger (District 32, Saginaw):  His staff reported to me this morning that the senator's a "solid yea" vote on the bill, should the question be called.

    • Kowall, Mike (District 15, White Lake):  His staff reported to me this morning the senator's reviewing the bill (which is apparently being amended in committee at this time), and will not decide his position until he has finished doing so.

    • Marleau, Jim (District 12, Lake Orion):  His staff reported to me this morning that they're unable to confirm the senator's position one way or the other at this time.

    • Meekhof, Arlan (District 30, West Olive):  A voicemail left at the senator's office this morning hasn't yet been returned, though back on Monday his staff reported to me that he's "leaning nay" on the bill.

    • Moolenaar, John (District 36, Midland):  I spoke with the senator this afternoon, and he told me that he is "opposed" to the bill, should the question be called, because he's unsure of the long-term sustainability of the program.

    • Nofs, Mike (District 19, Battle Creek):  A voicemail left at the senator's office this morning hasn't yet been returned, though his staff reported to me Monday that he's "on the fence" on this bill.

    • Pappageorge, John (District 13, Troy):  His staff reported to me that the senator's position remains unchanged from what he personally told me on Monday, that he is "officially uncommitted" until he's actually read the bill (including any amendments and substitutes), but he remains personally opposed to both ObamaCare and the Medicaid Expansion on principle.

    • Pavlov, Phil (District 25, St. Clair):  The senator personally returned my call to confirm that he is a "solid nay" vote on the bill, should the question be called.

    • Proos, John (District 21, St. Joseph):  A voicemail left at the senator's office this morning hasn't yet been returned, though he's "believed to be a nay" vote on the bill should the question be called.

    • Richardville, Randy (District 17, Monroe):  A voicemail left at the senator's office this morning hasn't yet been returned, though he's "believed to be a yea" vote on the bill, should the question be called.  He's also, according to the Lansing State Journal, intending to stick to his current practice of not calling a vote on the question without at least half of the majority caucus supporting the bill.

    • Robertson, David (District 26, Grand Blanc):  His staff couldn't confirm the senator's position on the bill, though he's "believed to be a nay" vote should the question be called.

    • Rocca, Tory (District 10, Sterling Heights):  His staff reported to me that the senator "leans nay" on the bill at present.

    • Schuitmaker, Tonya (District 20, Lawton):  Her staff reported to me that the senator is a "solid nay" vote on the bill, should the question be called.

    • Walker, Howard (District 37, Traverse City):  His staff reported to me that the senator is currently "leaning nay" on the bill.

    . . . which puts the current in-caucus whip count (not including Calley) at:

    • "Yea" (confirmed or expected):  3
    • "Uncommitted" (or unknown):  8
    • "Nay" (confirmed or expected):  15

    To Senator Richardville's credit, all indicators are that he's not going to call the question on 2013 House Bill 4714 unless he has at least 13 committed "yea" votes from his own caucus (scenario # 2 from last night's educated guessing).  However, I would be willing to bet that Lieutenant Governor Calley will be operating with no such restraint if he considers himself compelled to ascend the dais tomorrow.

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