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    Who are the NERD fund donors Mr Snyder?

    Raise the curtain.

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    Ballparking The Whip Count | 7 comments (7 topical, 0 hidden)
    So the senate adjourned . . . (none / 0) (#3)
    by Kevin Rex Heine on Tue Jun 18, 2013 at 11:49:31 PM EST
    . . . today without the vote being called, even after at least two "arm-twisting sessions" in the caucus room.  Channeling my "inner spook" I can think of at least four reasons for this:

    • It could be that Richardville is indeed attempting to play this straight up, and not call the vote unless he has a "majority of the majority" onboard with voting "yea."  This would mean that not only does he have to peel off every single one of the unknown/undecided votes, but also at least one current "lean oppose" vote (which I originally incorrectly tallied at 2 . . . that should have been 3, with only 10 solid "nay" votes).

    • If push comes down to shove, Snyder might pressure Richardville to call the vote if he knows he has at least 19 total votes onboard (democrats included), regardless of the caucus' whip count (because Calley will vote "yea" on final passage if a tie-breaker is necessary).  This means that Richardville has to peel off at least two fence-sitters to force a tie-breaker, and also means that he currently doesn't have them.

    • Credible backchannel scuttlebutt has it that Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D-23, East Lansing) has informed Richardville that she'll deliver all 12 members of the Senate Democrat Caucus, in exchange for one of two considerations from him: either (a) that Richardville deliver a matching number of republican votes (so that she's carrying no more than half of the governor's water), or (b) some significant legislative considerations going forward.  If this is so, then Richardville has to pull over damn near every single fence-sitter (Schuitmaker will only need to lock down two or three), or else agree to a bargain sufficiently Faustian that it'll effectively immolate the Republican brand going into 2014.

    • Also floating around in the backchannels is the rumor that the three termed-out democrats have approached President Pro Tempore Schuitmaker to offer themselves as insurance "nay" votes in exchange for procedural considerations going forward.  These considerations aren't as big a deal as what Richardville is being asked to agree to, but will allow the senators in question to get some favorable committee treatment for their legislative initiatives, and perhaps the occasional "moved for second reading" on the Senate floor (neither of which guarantee final passage, not by a long shot).

    Also, a quick walk through the elected caucus leadership shows them to be 3-7-1 on this bill (yea, nay, undecided).  This means that Richardville isn't just working against his own caucus, he's working against his caucus leadership.  Which has me wondering:  What on earth is the Governor using to secure his cooperation, against better knowledge, on a known bad idea?

    • Great report by JGillman, 06/19/2013 06:50:42 AM EST (none / 0)

    Ballparking The Whip Count | 7 comments (7 topical, 0 hidden)
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