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    Who are the NERD fund donors Mr Snyder?

    Raise the curtain.

    Michigan's 1st Congressional District Suffers Under Obama

    By JGillman, Section News
    Posted on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 03:29:25 PM EST
    Tags: Bart Stupak, Michigan, 1st Congressional District, Benishek, McDowell, Obama, Higher Taxes (all tags)

    Michiganders, much like the rest of the nation, have found themselves organizing and protesting and committing themselves to change.  Bart Stupak was a "marked man" for his capitulation with the Obama administration and his willingness to go against the wishes of his constituents, Michigan's 1st Congressional District.

    A seat held for multiple terms by a Democrat, saw a number of candidates make a bid in the Republican primary.  Those candidates sensing the public has finally begun to understand a Democrat shift leftward towards socialism, decided the time was at hand to make a run for that office.  The primary produced a conservative Republican candidate, and a Democrat candidate who is likely to be fairly similar to Stupak. (Without the baggage of lying to his constituents)  

    It seemed as though the race would be clear.  Whomever delivers a solid message that speaks to the values of CD1 voters would win the seat.  And given the sentiment towards the administration which has not yet gotten it right, a Republican victory by Dan Benishek seemed to be the most likely outcome.  A 4-5 point victory perhaps, and maybe even tighter if the big labor element and the Michigan Democrat party spends a few dollars propping up its candidate.  

    Recent polling bears out a pretty solid lead by Benishek, with a 13 point lead over McDowell in a 2 way race, and a 14 point lead over McDowell in a four way race that includes a disqualified fake tea candidate, and a candidate pulling 6% who would seem a likely spoiler.

    A spoiler CD1 cannot afford, because the stakes are so high..
    Read more below.

    Right now there is a great debate on whether the "Bush tax breaks" are allowed to expire, or if there will be a modified version put in place to replace it that punishes only the uber rich (those making over $250K )and ending THEIR cuts.

    Bottom line for the 1st Congressional District?

    President Obama's tax plan would allow portions of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts to expire, resulting in steep tax hikes beginning in January 2011 for small businesses and those earning $250,000 or more. The tax hikes would significantly affect the economy in Michigan, most notably in the number of jobs and change in personal income.

    Among the results, from 2011 to 2020, Michigan's Congressional District 1 would:

    Lose, on average, 1,361 jobs annually.

    Lose, per household, $3,803 in total disposable personal income.

    See total district-wide individual income taxes increase by $567 million.

    Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on the IHS Global Insight U.S. macroeconomic model, and data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    In CD1 alone these numbers affect REAL people.  Consider the average business owner in the UP or northern Michigan region. (Chain stores are pretty much non existent in most areas)  These folks might actually break the $250K barrier one year, but then be saddled with costs they cannot retroactively expense from time to time.  A small business comes with a number of variables no government could EVER properly predict.  

    Any real effect on the bottom line due to taxes, has only one possible outcome: The loss of real jobs to replace or buffer the lost income the business owners face.

    Furthermore, the loss of wealth to the district by $576 million through taxes alone is unacceptable.  It is merely a funneling of CD1 money into an unaccountable federal bureaucracy.

    Two things to note stand out.  

    1.  We should not expect a Democrat replacement for Stupak to do things differently than he himself.
    2.  There are times to put a conservative candidate against a conservative candidate, and that is in the primary.  The strange polling numbers that show a four way race even more in favor of Benishek that a two way are misleading.  The loss of the fake tea candidate pushes the better part of those 11 points toward McDowell, which closes the gap to a statistical problem for Benishek, while not at all helping the independent candidate who remains, and will do so, at 6%.

    Having said all of this..

    Benishek, if elected will not likely have the opportunity to decide on whether the break remains, but an election of McDowell would be seen as an approval of the money grab policies by this administration, and Michigan's CD1 voters would see additional measures that run counter to common sense or their common values.

    < Is That A Sucking Sound I Hear? | A Bad Light? >

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    1st CD (none / 0) (#1)
    by grannynanny on Mon Sep 20, 2010 at 06:03:53 PM EST
    has already been decimated by losses of population most notably young people who after college, never returned to their home towns.  All that is left are retirees, mom and pop tourist spots and welfare and they cannot sustain those communities.  Big plants pulled out, logistics with lack of roadway service to those small communities kept them uncompetitve in their markets and unions and their demands finished them off. Now you have less tax base and more union employees in the municipalities demanding more pay and bennies from a very small tax base.  Stupak has never addressed those issues and in siding with the libs and Granholm on the green energy front just killed any hope of reviving a manufacturing base in these areas of the state (Wolverine Power Plant in Rogers City comes to mind).  

    It is so sad to go back to my home town and see empty buildings, marinas and store fronts.  And we stayed as long as we could.  Moving to a new area and a new job at the age of 50 is very scary!  NE lower Michigan is so beautiful and those that remain are working hard to stay but they need Washington and Lansing to get out of the way and let people and small businesses flourish and expand.  The uncertainty of taxes, health care costs and regulation is killing any growth!

    We need good people like Benichek to go to Washington and get the job done for this district that is hurting so much from the Stupak years.

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