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    Who are the NERD fund donors Mr Snyder?

    Raise the curtain.

    How to modify and/or repeal Obamacare - Don't get mad. Get even.

    By Republican Michigander, Section News
    Posted on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 08:49:09 PM EST
    Tags: Obamacare, Barack Obama, elections, health care, redistricting (all tags)

    "He pulls a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue! That's the Chicago way" - The Untouchables

    I'm not into the Chicago way, but I am Irish by blood, and we never stop fighting, either in politics or other matters. I'm not interested in online petitions. They are a waste of time. I'm interested in getting this damn thing modified and better yet repealed.

    The problem with politics is patience and short memories. Most people don't have any patience, or follow politics enough to have long memories. There is a way to repeal Obamacare, and it's much harder than just having votes. It's a long process, and it will take years. It took 10 years just for the ugly gun ban to expire, and that's only with a sunset provision. Obamacare CAN be repealed, but it won't be easy.

    Assuming Obama will veto a repeal, it will take 67 senators, and 292 representatives to repeal this completely. It is unlikely there will be a repeal until at least 2012 if that punk Obama gets the firing he deserves. It will take a majority in congress for any good reforms to see the light of day in committee. In addition to that, we have redistricting in 2011 which redraws the congressional boundaries. In most states, the state legislature and governor draws the districts. I don't like that system, but it is what it is, and we need to use that to our advantage.

    Goal 1 - Take the committee chairs. Take the gavels away from Pelosi, Waxman, and company. That takes a majority.
    Goal 2 - Take a fillibuster proof majority in the senate
    Goal 3 - Take the presidency and/or veto proof majority
    Goal 4 - Get rid of the damn thing, and a bunch of other bad laws passed over the last century.

    What can we do now, here in 2010?

    A. The obvious point, vote Republican in federal races. It doesn't stop there though.

    B. If you are in a swing state, a republican state, a republican county, or republican congressional district - fill out the census form. This is the quickest and easiest way to help. The more strength in Livingston County here, the more the borders contract in the district, as we don't have to expand Mike's district. This is about 2012. It does no good to take the house back in 2010, and lose it in 2012 with redistricting. Don't boycott this in Michigan. The price may be Thad McCotter or Mike Rogers being redistricted out of a congressional seat.

    C. Make sure republicans are elected in Gubernatorial, State Representative, and State Senatorial races. In 2010, all of them are up for election in Michigan. These races determine the 2012 congressional districts in redistricting.

    D. Research. Find out the competitive seats, and send money or use time to help these candidates. Some people don't have money. Others do. Some have some time that can be used for stuffing envelopes, walking doors, etc. All of that is important. Some are easier pickings than others. John Conyers for example is in a district that votes 85% democrat every year. The Gary Peters, Mark Schauer, and Bart Stupak districts voted for Bush. Don't forget defense either. Thad McCotter had a close race in 2008, winning with 51%. He needs support as well.

    E. Know the district. Some districts are bad for certain types of candidates. Scott Brown is the Massachusetts senator. He won't be with us on everything, but it's Massachusetts. We have to take what we can get there.

    All of the house congressional elections are up in 2010. So are many senators. Here's the senate races, all 36 of them. We need +9 to take control. I think there's a good chance of that in 2012. 2010 it is a long shot.

    Alabama - Richard Shelby - I don't like him, and would like to see him primaried, but I'll take his committee vote. He's probably safe.

    Alaska - Lisa Murkowski - I'd keep an eye on this one. Murkowski won with 48% last time.

    Arizona - John McCain's running again. He has a primary challenger in JD Hayworth. I'd rather see someone besides either of them, but if I have to pick one of the two, I'd reluctantly pick Hayworth.

    Arkansas - Blanche Lincoln. She's vulrunable and is one of the best shots for a pickup.

    California - Barbara Boxer - Longshot, but possible. I just hope the nominee isn't Carly Fiorina who ran Hewlett Packard into the ground.

    Colorado - Michael Bennett - He was appointed after Ken Salazar left for an administration post in the Obama admin. This is a good chance for a pickup.

    Connecticut - Chris Dodd is retiring. This is an open seat. It won't be easy, but it's worth a fight.

    Delaware - Mike Castle isn't my type of republican, but like Shelby, I'll take his committee vote.

    Florida - Marco Rubio has a good chance of wrapping up the primary here against stimulus loving Charlie Crist. He needs support in the general election as well.

    Georgia - Johnny Isakson should be safe.

    Hawaii - Daniel Inouye is probably safe, but if there is any year to battle the dems, this is it. He's 86 years old this year.

    Idaho - Mike Crapo - Safe

    Illinois - Open seat as Roland Burris isn't running. This is a possible pickup despite its democrat leanings. Between Blago's troubles, Burris's troubles, and the fact that the dems nominated a 34 year old banker with a questionable past, we have a shot here. Mark Kirk isn't my favorite, but he won the primary, and I'll take the committee vote, and right now, that's the first step.

    Indiana - Evan Bayh is retiring. This should be a pickup unless the GOP is stupid.

    Iowa - Chuck Grassley is about as safe as one gets in Iowa, which is never safe for either party.

    Kansas - Open seat. As long as the infighting isn't too bad, we should keep this, whether Jerry Moran or Todd Tiahrt wins the primary.

    Kentucky - Open seat as Jim Bunning is retiring. Keep an eye on this one. Kentucky isn't as republican as one thinks once you get past the presidential level.

    Louisiana - The question here is whether David Vitter cleaned up his troubles. If I'm Vitter, I'm making this election about Pelosi and Obama and Melancon. This will be tough.

    Maryland - Barbara Mikulski is probably safe, but if there's any year to fight, it's this one.

    Missouri - Roy Blunt vs Robin Carnahan. I'm not a Blunt fan, but I'm even less of a Carnahan fan. I'll take his committee vote.

    Nevada - Harry Reid is in big trouble.

    New Hampshire - Judd Gregg is stepping down and this will be our toughest defense.

    New York - Both Chuck Schumer and Kristen Gillibrand are up. I'll like to see someone pick off one of these. It's unlikely, but if any year is the year, this is it. Schumer is one of the brains behind the operations, so it's worth a shot just to get him scared.

    North Carolina - Richard Burr is up and has a tough defense. He won with 51% last time.

    North Dakota - Byron Dorgan isn't running. I wouldn't take this seat for granted, but we need to make sure its ours.

    Ohio - George Voinovich is retiring, and I'm not unhappy about that. Rob Portman is the likely nominee for the GOP. This will be a tough defense. Nothing in Ohio is easy.

    Oklahoma - Tom Coburn should be safe.

    Oregon - Ron Wyden is about as safe as it gets in Oregon, but that state isn't unwinnable with the right candidate. Bush almost won it in 2000.

    Pennsylvania - Arlen Sphincter, I mean Specter is getting double flanked. The dems are running Joe Stesak against him in the primary, and Pat Toomey (who won a democrat leaning seat himself) is showing he has more strength than the pundits thought. This needs to be a pickup

    South Carolina - Jim DeMint should be safe.

    South Dakota - John Thune may have a tough race, but should be safe unless Herseth runs.

    Utah - Bob Bennett has primary troubles, but that seat should stay Republican.

    Washington State - Patty Murray will be tough to beat, but this is the year to try. Slade Gorton won there a few times so it is possible to win there.

    Wisconsin - Russ Feingold usually finds a way to survive, but now's the time to go for it.

    A veto override majority isn't possible in 2010, but is there enough to take the senate? Possible. It's worth a shot.

    The house is a better shot. If we get the seats that went for Bush in 2000, let alone 2004, we get the house back. There's dozens of districts that fit that profile, three of which here in Michigan. Gary Peters. Bart Stupak. Mark Schauer. Also off the top of my head in the Midwest. Three of them in Indiana. Joe Donnely. Brad Ellsworth's open seat, and Baron Hill. In Ohio, Steve Driehaus, Charlie Wilson, Zach Space, Mary Jo Kilroy, and John Boccieri. That's just in three states.

    I can't forget the state house and state senate side as well. Again, it goes to redistricting. We need to keep the state senate, and it won't be easy. What should be:

    St Senate (have 22-16 advantage)
    St Senate 7 (Outer Wayne County)
    St Senate 11 (Central and Northern Macomb)
    St Senate 12 (NE Oakland, including Pontiac)
    St Senate 13 (Eastern Oakland)
    St Senate 17 (Monroe, part of Washtenaw and Jackson County)
    St Senate 19 (Calhoun/Jackson Counties)
    St Senate 20 (Kalamazoo, part of Van Buren)
    St Senate 25 (Lapeer, St Clair)
    St Senate 29 (Grand Rapids)
    St Senate 34 (Muskegon and North of there)
    St Senate 36 (Northeast Michigan)

    Targets for pickup:
    St Senate 6 (Livonia, Westland, Redford)
    St Senate 10 (Sterling Heights, Roseville)
    St Senate 26 (Eastern Genesee, North Central Oakland)
    St Senate 31 (Thumb, Bay County)
    St Senate 38 (UP, if Casperson runs)

    St House (we need to win 13 seats, I listed 29 targets)
    House 19 - Livonia
    House 30 - Northern Sterling Heights
    House 43 - Waterford
    House 51 - Southern Genesee County
    House 61 - Portage, Western Kalamazoo County
    House 63 - Part of Kalamazoo and Calhoun Counties
    House 71 - Most of Eaton County
    House 78 - Southern Berrien County
    House 80 - Van Buren County
    House 81 - Most of St Clair County
    House 85 - Shiawassee and part of Clinton County
    House 94 - Rural Saginaw County
    House 97 - Clare, Gladwin, Arenac, Rural Bay County.
    House 99 - Isabella and part of Midland County

    Pickup targers:
    House 1 - Grosse Pointes, part of Detroit
    House 20 - Plymouth
    House 21 - Canton
    House 23 - Far Downriver
    House 24 - St Clair Shores, Harrison Twp
    House 25 - North Warren (Had it as recently as 2000)
    House 26 - Royal Oak (almost had it in 2004, shockingly)
    House 31 - Clinton Twp, Mt Clemens
    House 32 - Northern Macomb, pt of St Clair
    House 37 - Farmington Hills (Rocky won there three times)
    House 39 - Commerce, West Bloomfield (Dave Law and Marc Shulman won there)
    House 52 - Western Washtenaw County
    House 55 - Western Monroe County, part of Washtenaw County
    House 56 - Eastern Monroe County
    House 57 - Most of Lenawee County
    House 64 - Part of Jackson County
    House 65 - Part of Jackson County and part of Eaton County.
    House 67 - Most of Ingham County outside East Lansing and Meridian Twp. Includes South Lansing.
    House 70 - Montcalm and part of Ionia County
    House 75 - Part of Grand Rapids
    House 83 - Sanilac County and part of St Clair County
    House 84 - Tuscola and Huron Counties
    House 91 - Part of Muskegon County
    House 101 - Leelanau, Benzie, Mason, and Manistee Counties
    House 103 - Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco Counties
    House 106 - Crawford, Oscoda, Alcona, Alpena, Montmorency, and Presque Isle Counties.
    House 107 - Emmet, Mackinac, and Chippewa Counties
    House 108 - Dickinson, Menominee, and Delta Counties
    House 110 - Western UP.

    This in 2010 lays the groundwork for getting rid of that 2300+ page monstrosity known as Obamacare. It starts with redistricting, stopping the bleeding, and then taking the state legislatures and governorships, as well the US House and US Senate to get ready for 2012, and then getting rid of this crap in 2013.

    < The Baby Killers Prevail | Bart's Interview.. >

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    re- districting (none / 0) (#2)
    by Ralph Erickson on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 10:07:59 PM EST
    The Annoited One's Commerce dept. will see to it that the Detroit city numbers are crooked as they should have lost population since the last census since I checked on the internet (probably more than what the census estimated in 2008 based on the Detroit school district SEN numbers).

    How is Mike Roger's district going to be gerrymandered since Livingston County (I think that he is from there) probably gained in population or is at least stable?  There are strict rules in Michigan about re-districting that must be followed such as following countty lines, city lines, etc.  Usually the plan that follows the rules best is the one that becomes law (after the expected Michigan Supreme Court challenge).  So the GOP should make sure that they don't disagree with those lines as little as humanly possible.

    Great report (none / 0) (#3)
    by Rougman on Mon Mar 22, 2010 at 10:16:30 PM EST
    I have read some national pundits talk about Peters and Schauer being in potential trouble.  You have Stupak listed also.  

    I'd love to see that unprincipled socialist ambulance chaser go into private practice.  

    2010 CD's (none / 0) (#5)
    by Ralph Erickson on Tue Mar 23, 2010 at 02:33:16 AM EST
    Oakland County is part of Mike's CD district as well and you didn't mention that at all.  Mike is my Congressman.

    Genesee is Kildee's district if I remember right so why mention that on here since Genesee usually gets their own CD district or has if my memeory is right since I was born or so since Riegel (sp?) was from there before becoming U. S. Senator.  Based on your numbers, the Flint area district will be add a tad to it this time.

    Each Michigan CD will be around 723K population wise since we are suppose to lose one CD in 2010.  This will make Detroit to have only one CD with another minority partial one.  So basically I think that it will be Detroit that loses one of their CD's based on logic.

    • 2000 CD map by Ralph Erickson, 03/23/2010 02:51:12 AM EST (none / 0)
      • Stupak's CD by Ralph Erickson, 03/23/2010 03:00:36 AM EST (none / 0)
    Recall (none / 0) (#8)
    by grannynanny on Tue Mar 23, 2010 at 09:55:38 AM EST
    I do believe Michigan residents can recall Senators. Is there a possibility that we can start a recall of both Levin and Stabenow right now?

    Stupak's District (none / 0) (#10)
    by grannynanny on Tue Mar 23, 2010 at 10:32:21 AM EST
    I lived in Stupak's district for 49 years and we still have property there.  The populice is made up of lots of retirees - mostly auto and teachers - meaning union retirees.  Also lots of seasonal businesses with employees dependent upon unemployment benefits.  And last but not least lots of welfare.  Unemployment in Alpena, Alcona, Presque Isle, Crawford, Cheboygan is running on average of 23-25%.  Same for the UP.  It is the largest district in Michigan land wise but population wise just pockets.  

    I think both local, state and federal candidates have to hammer on the effects of unions.  Especially teacher and government workers and the unsustainable retiree packages.  Put up the factual numbers of those packages like Chris Christie did.  Worker puts in $124K into retirement fund, retires at age 55 and if he lives to be 80 will collect $3 million in retirement funds and benefits.  That is $120K per year and it is not sustainable.  The average working still should not HAVE to fund someone else's retirement with tax money.  Personal responsibility has to be hammered into minds and truthful facts and figures will open their eyes.

    Michigan has lost almost 500 K in population since 2001.  Loss of jobs, loss of income, loss of revenue to the state.  Michigan's budget has increased and Michigan govt. employees have increased during this time of population decrease. We need to drastically downsize the govt. GOP would be wise to promote a part time legislature.  Meet 4 times per year.  Make legislators WORK in their own district and allow the time off to go to Lansing. Eliminate all funding for schools and let each district figure out how to fund their schools.

    Even though this district leans union I think you hit them hard with the facts and figures and wake them up.  They will listen to reasonable and simple solutions.

    new link (none / 0) (#11)
    by Ralph Erickson on Tue Mar 23, 2010 at 02:07:38 PM EST
    Based on this link, the CD's will be close to 714K then:


    So each CD number dropped around 10K from what I initially posted.  It is just that I used official U. S. Census data estimates without looking for newspaper links.

    I still say Stupak's 2010 CD will probably be enlarged from 2000.

    Nicely Done (none / 0) (#12)
    by Political Agenda on Tue Mar 23, 2010 at 05:54:32 PM EST
    This is a very good piece of work. I really appreciate the work you put into this.

    Danian Michael

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