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Tag: 57th Quadrennial U. S. Presidential Election

Can't Stick A Fork In Him Yet

By Kevin Rex Heine, Section News
Posted on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 11:48:12 AM EST
Tags: 57th Quadrennial U. S. Presidential Election, University of Colorado electoral prediction model, Berry-Bickers model, it's the economy stupid, Electoral College, perfect projection model thus far, upending the elite's chosen narrative, W. Mitt Romney, home state = Massachusetts, native state = Michigan, President James K. Polk, damn near locked down already . . . or not, Laura Ingraham (all tags)

If you've been noticing an interesting trend in the polls recently, then you're probably not alone. As recently a week ago, just about every presidential poll and poll aggregator had the Obama-Biden ticket with somewhere between a 75% and 92% chance of re-election, the only question being how far over 300 electoral votes BHO would finish on election night. Much has changed. After the rhetorical pounding that B. Hussein Obama took from W. Mitt Romney in Denver nine nights ago, the jackass POTUS ticket has watched their numbers go into a free-fall. Currently, depending upon which aggregator you believe, BHO's re-election chances as of suppertime yesterday were between 66% and 84%, a bit of a dip in just over a week's time.

I think that the behind-closed-doors truth is that the chances are so bad for the DNC to hang on to both the White House and the Senate that all Joe Biden had to do last night was be competent for 90 minutes (something that he seems to have done), and I can guarantee you that today's headline theme will be along the lines of: "Surprisingly Strong Debate Performance By VP Gives Prez Opportunity To Stop Bloodbath In Polls" . . . mark . my . words . . . Mind you, Biden didn't have to score a rhetorical upset, or even play nice; he just had to be competent for 90 minutes.

I do find it interesting, though, that the mainstream media polling is starting to line up with a prediction model published by two University of Colorado professors just over seven weeks ago, the update of which was released a week ago, that has not been wrong even once in the eight presidential elections that it's projected. That cannot portend well for the MSNBC anchor crew, though apparently I'm still at risk of losing a six pack to my nephew-in-law up in Houghton Lake.

(2 comments, 1569 words in story) Full Story

Is 2012 Already In The "R" Column?

By Kevin Rex Heine, Section News
Posted on Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 06:33:10 PM EST
Tags: 57th Quadrennial U. S. Presidential Election, Electoral College, W. Mitt Romney, home state = Massachusetts, native state = Michigan, University of Colorado electoral prediction model, it's the economy stupid, perfect projection model thus far, upending the elite's chosen narrative, President James K. Polk (all tags)

Of the 56 quadrennial presidential elections to date in the United States, only twice has the electoral winner failed to carry his home state. (Woodrow Wilson lost New Jersey in his 1916 re-election bid and James K. Polk lost Tennessee in the 1844 election.) More common, occurring nine times thus far, is a president failing to carry his native state and still win the election, such as George W. Bush losing Connecticut or Abraham Lincoln losing Kentucky. (President Polk has the dubious distinction of being on both lists, as he also failed to carry his native state of North Carolina in 1844.)

However, if we are to believe a report out of the University of Colorado from last month, W. Mitt Romney may just be joining that club this year.

(5 comments, 1681 words in story) Full Story