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    Who are the NERD fund donors Mr Snyder?

    Raise the curtain.

    Media Myth vs Delegate Reality


    By Kevin Rex Heine, Section News
    Posted on Wed Feb 29, 2012 at 10:12:46 PM EST
    Tags: "DELE-GATE", Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, primary process, delegate math, backroom shenanigans, disingenuous hypocrisy (all tags)

    The media elites (to say noting of the party elites) would love to have you believe their line that Romney's wins in Michigan and Arizona last night have him back in command of the primary contest heading into Super Tuesday, where ten states await him.  Their meme is that, though the win in Michigan was ugly and close, Romney is now the presumptive nominee; it's just a matter of how long it's going to take to clear the rest of the field.

    The reality, however, is so much messier.


    That map above the fold is the one that the drive-by media wants you to believe.  By their calculus, Newt Gingrich has won one state, Rick Santorum three (plus a non-binding contest in Missouri), and Mitt Romney has won six states (plus a non-binding contest in Wyoming).  It seems that the media would love to have us, the dumbed-down electorate, believe that he who wins the most states wins the nomination.  Since they don't see anyone other than Romney winning a majority of the states, we should all just bow down before our king now and advance to the presumptive general campaign.

    According to the media and the party elites, because Mittens beat Rick by 3.21 percentage points (which would be right on the margin of error if this were a poll), he won the state, and now can slog heroically on to claim the crown that is rightfully his.  Ignore the reality that the Arizona result, like the Florida result, is subject to appeal because the state party violated RNC rules and held a binding statewide winner-take-all contest before the April 1 cutoff.  Ignore the truth that Romney didn't actually win the delegate allocation in Michigan, because the actual election results have him and Santorum tied at exactly 15 delegates each.  And never you mind that some of us have an entirely different type of "crowning" in mind for Romney, just follow the red herring, dammit.

    Nope, sorry, not playing the blindfolded lemming this time around.

    The brutal truth is that, according to the Michigan Republican Party, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum each won seven congressional districts, as follows:

    • CD-01:  Rick Santorum
    • CD-02:  Rick Santorum
    • CD-03:  Rick Santorum
    • CD-04:  Rick Santorum
    • CD-05:  Mitt Romney
    • CD-06:  Rick Santorum
    • CD-07:  Rick Santorum
    • CD-08:  Mitt Romney
    • CD-09:  Mitt Romney
    • CD-10:  Mitt Romney
    • CD-11:  Mitt Romney
    • CD-12:  Mitt Romney
    • CD-13:  Rick Santorum
    • CD-14:  Mitt Romney

    And so, because we are only awarding two delegates per district (due to the RNC penalty for holding a binding contest before March 6th without their permission), we thus have Romney and Santorum at 14 delegates each, with the two at-large delegates to be accounted for.

    It's worth noting that the district-by-district results as posted on the Michigan Secretary of State website are inaccurate.  For some reason Ruth Johnson never got the message that we're doing this according to the 2011 apportionment, so her posted results somehow assume that Michigan still has 15 congressional districts.  More on that later.

    The proportional awarding of the two at-large delegates is a tad more complex, and actually requires a bit of advanced math to figure out.  MIGOP rule 19-C(2) provides the basic concept:

    National Convention at-large delegates and at-large alternate delegates shall be elected on a basis that insures that the proportion of the at-large National Convention delegation that is committed to each Republican presidential candidate equals, as nearly as is practicable, the proportion of the statewide vote that was cast for each respective presidential candidate (or, if applicable, uncommitted) at the statewide Presidential Preference Vote.  The determination of these proportions shall only include the votes cast for that particular Republican presidential candidate (or, if applicable, uncommitted), if the total vote cast for that particular Republican presidential candidate (or, if applicable, uncommitted), equals at least fifteen percent (15%) of the total statewide vote cast for all Republican presidential candidates (or, if applicable, uncommitted) at the Presidential Preference Vote (hereinafter the "Threshold Vote").

    Breaking this down, only those candidates who actually received at least 15% of the statewide popular vote count for this formula.  Those who didn't meet the vote threshold are disregarded.  So, since only Mitt Romney (41.07 %) and Rick Santorum (37.86 %) clear the bar, only they participate in the formula.  The total statewide votes that we will count for the purpose of proportionality will include the aggregate of only Romney's and Santorum's statewide totals.

    Per the Michigan Republican Party website, those totals are:

    • Mitt Romney:  377,054 votes (≈ 51.459% of the total threshold votes)
    • Rick Santorum:  355,666 votes (≈ 48.541% of the total threshold votes)
    • Total = 732,720 threshold votes

    And yes, I realize that the Secretary of State website has different numbers, and we'll re-run the math with those numbers presently.  But for now let's proceed with what we have.  Continuing on:

    The resulting percentage for each candidate (or, if applicable, uncommitted) shall be multiplied by [two (2)] and rounded to the nearest whole number (.5 and above rounds up, below .5 rounds down), which shall be the number of delegates and alternate delegates that that candidate (or, if applicable, uncommitted) shall receive from the at-large National Convention delegation.

    I inserted two because, due to the RNC penalty, our "officially recognized" at-large delegation was reduced from 14 to 2.  Running the math produces these results:

    • Mitt Romney:  0.51459 × 2 = 1.02918
    • Rick Santorum:  0.48541 × 2 = 0.97082

    Rounding according to the rules produces one at-large delegate each for Romney and Santorum.  Using the numbers on the Secretary of State's totals (409,120 votes for Romney, 377,144 votes for Santorum) produces a result of 1.0411 for Romney and 0.9589 for Santorum . . . no practical difference.  Thus, the total delegation allotment for Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum is:

    • Mitt Romney:  15 delegates (14 C/D + 1 A/L)
    • Rick Santorum:  15 delegates (14 C/D + 1 A/L)

    But, but, but . . . I thought that Romney had won Michigan!  It looks to me like it was a tie!

    Somehow that detail hasn't made it to the beltway press yet, because AP, CNN, and FOX (among others) are still acting like CD-10 is undecided (the Detroit News map finally put it into the Romney column) and both of the at-large delegates are going to Romney.  In fact, everyone seems to have shifted focus to the ten-state contest of Super Tuesday, even though the Washington State Caucuses are this Saturday.

    However, Tony Roza over at The Green Papers has the delegate count right.  And I noticed that the Detroit News is also addressing the controversy, and provides some insight into why this is going to get real interesting between now and the May 19th MIGOP State Convention:

    Santorum's campaign believes he tied Romney in winning seven congressional seats, for a total of 14 delegates.  Adding one apiece from the statewide total, Yob predicts a 15-15 delegate split in Michigan.

    The Michigan GOP and Romney's campaign, however, point out the results have not yet been settled.  Also there's disagreement between the camps whether the two statewide delegates are split or whether both go to Romney.

    The confusion comes over new congressional district lines.  For the last decade, Michigan had 15 Congressional Districts.  However, Michigan lost a congressional seat because of population declines and new maps were drawn last year to shrink to 14 districts.  Since the maps are still fresh, election officials were not ready to report results based on the new 14 congressional districts.  Instead, the Secretary of State issued results by county and the old 15 congressional district map.

    So, because the Secretary of State didn't have the new district templates ready to go (thanks a lot, Ruth), we're relying on the Michigan GOP to keep this straight.  Gee, what could go wrong there?  And yeah, there's a disagreement between the camps as to how the at-large delegates are to be awarded; I suspect that's because the Romney endorsers list, that reads like a who's who of the MIGOP elite, would hate to have the coronation narrative need a rewrite because the heir-apparent couldn't win in his native state.

    Which is why people like Saul Anuzis (mister National Popular Vote himself) and other MIGOP party elites (on Mitt's endorsement list) are actively lobbying the MIGOP and RNC to change the awarding rules for the at-large delegates . . . after the vote is already in the books!

    As a complete sidebar, I also find it more than a little amusing that the very same MIGOP party elites who insisted on shoving an open primary down the rest of the party's throat are now kvetching because one of the candidates actually took advantage of the opening that we told them was going to be created.  From that same Detroit News article:

    Romney's campaign continues to focus on one aspect of Santorum's campaign in Michigan, a robocall asking state Democrats to vote for him in the primary.

    "Rick Santorum made a colossal mistake by inviting Democrats to come into the Republican primary in Michigan," said Matt Rhoades, Romney's campaign manager, in an emailed statement.  "Republicans should choose the nominee, not Democrats.  Rick Santorum needs to apologize and pledge that he won't resort to these dirty tactics on Super Tuesday."

    Why should he "need to apologize"?  At least Santorum took above-board advantage of a legitimate opening that the state party created.  If y'all don't like it, then you should have taken my advice back in August and gone with something that wasn't open to crossover tinkering.  Maybe you'll remember that next time around.

    Quite frankly, I think the carping is disingenuous, if not downright hypocritical, coming from the crew that not only pushed for the taxpayer-funded open primary in the first place, but now wants to change the score after the game is over.  Nothing that Santorum did warrants that backroom ex post facto dirty pool (unless the party elites actually want to step down to Mark Brewer's level).  Don't be surprised if actually attempting it produces an ugly floor fight at the MIGOP State Convention in May.

    And, for what my opinion's worth, if Romney has to break the rules to win, then that's just one more way in which he is indistinguishable from the incumbent he seems to believe that he's capable of defeating.

    < Michigan GOP primary: I thought it was the delegates that count | Andrew Breitbart Dead At 43 >


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    Breaking Big KRH (none / 0) (#1)
    by JGillman on Thu Mar 01, 2012 at 09:12:02 AM EST
    Apparently the MiGOP is preparing to cheat for their favored son.

    More coming up.

    I owe Ruth Johnson an apology . . . (none / 0) (#6)
    by Kevin Rex Heine on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 01:01:15 AM EST
    . . . and I ought to do that right now while I'm thinking about it.

    As referenced in this February 22nd memo from the MIGOP Credentials Committee, the Secretary of State and County Clerks are still working off of the 2001 apportionment.  What wasn't mentioned was the reason, which I learned about yesterday.

    Apparently, in some cities the precinct lines are still in the "redraw" process due to the new apportionment, and those new lines aren't due to be finalized until April 9th.  That'll still provide 14 days to certify the primary results, but clearly wasn't going to work for the purposes of last Tuesday.

    Same old Crap... (5.00 / 1) (#7)
    by retvet242 on Fri Mar 02, 2012 at 07:05:54 AM EST
    The GOP (both State and National) does not understand what the Tea Parties are all about...this is a perfect example...

    I intend (with the help of some of the converted 'old guard' local Repubs) to have a nearly "all Tea Party conservative" delegation sent to the State Convention, myself included...

    The message will be clear..."Ignore us, dismiss us, disrespect us...and DIE as a viable political party...They will create a 3rd party (already in progress) to replace them by their own corrupt actions...

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