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Michigan's 19th state Senate seat (open): The ChallengersBy Nick, Section News
Time to turn our attention, again, to Michigan's 19th District state Senate seat vacated by Mark Schauer when he broke his promise not to run for Congress and skedaddled off to Washington.
Earlier this month we took a look at some of the underlying characteristics and voter behavior in the 19th and what it would mean for the Senate Republicans to steal a seat that has been solidly blue for years. Today we're going to take a quick look to the men who have already announced their intention to run for the vacant seat if the Governor ever decides to let the people of Jackson and Calhoun counties again have representation in the state's upper chamber. Three names are working their way through the rumor mill in Lansing these days, and while more certainly could toss their hats in the ring, these three alone set up a couple of fascinating showdowns in the (hopefully) not-to-distant future. Democratic state Representatives Marty Griffin and Mike Simpson look primed to square off in a Dem primary while Mike Nofs is rumored to be running and appears to have already cleared the field of potential challengers. And with good reason, but we'll get there in a second. Let's start with the lefties. Read on...
64th District Representative Marty Griffin already took away all suspense by officially announcing his intention to run for the state Senate seat. The Jackson Citizen Patriot brought the announcement to their readers on November 25th, along with the rationale behind Griffin's decision to run:
That's right... he cited his experience as a politician as the reason he wants a promotion. Because voters LOVE career politicians. Interestingly, he didn't cite any of his SPECIFIC experiences INSIDE his latest political office there in the state House. Could be because that record consists of supporting and helping to pass the biggest tax hike in the history of the state of Michigan, but I guess we can't be sure. Of course, last year we profiled Griffin's anti-job voting record and his propensity for fibbing RIGHT HERE. And while Griffin sits in the blue corner he's being stared down by an opponent in the... other blue corner. 65th District Representative Mike Simpson has been long rumored to be interested in the Senate seat and Griffin's announcement hasn't deterred him, at least not yet. Most folks I talk to expect Griffin will jump in the race at some point, though that is hardly a unanimous opinion. Personal take, the fact that nearly a month has passed since another local Democrat's announcement and he still hasn't stepped aside is more than a little telling. He may try to wait out the holidays and to get the official word from the Governor on timing and dates, but I'd be more surprised if he didn't run than I would be if he did. Of course, that poses an interesting dilemma for Democrats across the state who will have two candidates pushing for public, political and financial support. I don't know about you, but I always enjoy Dem on Dem political violence... somebody ring that bell. Philosophically, there's hardly a lick of difference between the men. Like Griffin, Simpson was one of the deciding votes in foisting over $1.5 billion in new taxes on moms and dads in Jackson County and across the state. But while his opponent took his time finding his way at the state Capitol, Simpson jumped in feet first and sponsored / cosponsored House Bills 4044 and 4045, the Trial Lawyer Enhancement Act that allows ambulance chasers to sue folks who are trying to save lives for having the gall to meet federal and state requirements. That's right... to sue folks and to win damages for doing things LEGALLY and the right way. Because that won't kill R & D jobs or tell folks creating those magical "jobs of tomorrow" that Michigan is a litigation-happy backwater at aaaaaall. You can read lots more about Mike Simpson and his strange fascination with writing and promoting the most anti-job legislation possible HERE. Tax hiker v tax hiker. Big government against big government. Toe to toe for the chance to take on a man neither would like to see on the opposite side of the ring, former police officer and term limited Republican state Representative Mike Nofs. I'm not going to BS and beat around any bushes... Nofs isn't the most hard-lined conservative in the state House. In fact, I've typed some awfully pointed words about and towards the man in the past. Stick the guy against Simpson OR Griffin? I'm with Mike Nofs 116 times out of 100. (Yeah, I know, I was never good at the maths.) Mike Nofs is right much more often than he is wrong, he's pro-life, pro-second-amendment and pro-job creation. And Mike Nofs voted NO on every last aspect of Simpson and Griffin's job killing tax increase. No one else on the right side of the equation has made much of a peep about the 19th and that's a testament to Nofs strength in the district. His performance at the polls is a huge marker on his side of the board.
The table above illustrates recent electoral successes in the Michigan counties that make up the open state Senate seat. Six races from 2006 and 2008 are on the graph and two more are represented by the Griffin and Simpson re-election victories over also-rans a month and a half ago. Eight races in total in a two year time span and there is one Republican who walked away with a victory... Mike Nofs. Not only that, but in 2006, what might have been the worst year for the Republican brand ID in modern political history (not one Democrat incumbent for Congress or Governor lost anywhere in the United States of America that year), Representative Nofs performed nearly as well in Dem heavy Calhoun County as Barack Obama. More importantly, he performed nearly 15 ½ points better than the next Republican to take a stab at winning his House seat, illustrating the kind of weight the man packs in his home county. These numbers are not insignificant. Match them up against Simpson and Griffin's numbers and the prevailing stated public desire for change and we've got ourselves the makings of a good old fashioned political dog fight. Thing about shooting for upsets in close contests, though, is they require every hand on deck. Next up... how we can help!
Michigan's 19th state Senate seat (open): The Challengers | 2 comments (2 topical, 0 hidden)
Michigan's 19th state Senate seat (open): The Challengers | 2 comments (2 topical, 0 hidden)
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Related Links+ Jackson Citizen Patriot+ RIGHT HERE + House Bills 4044 + 4045 + HERE + in the past + Also by Nick |