If you'll notice Saul's endorsement list, most of his support seems to come from inside the I-69 arc.  He has made inroads into the 4th District (likely due to the assistance of Dave Camp and Bill Schuette), the 5th District (which will probably be a dogfight anyway), the 10th District (for which we can probably thank Stan Grot), and appears to have a small pocket of support in Greater Grand Rapids.  But other than that, Saulius' support seems to be confined to Southeast Michigan, particularly the party's blueblood establishment elites . . . an observation I've made before.

But Saul isn't the only candidate in this matchup who has a list of endorsements handy:

Friends,

Thank you very much to the 200+ people who have already endorsed my campaign for Republican National Committeeman!

We are off to a quick start and it is clear that people are ready for a Constitutional Conservative to represent the grassroots base of our party on the Republican National Committee.

I'm also very proud of the endorsement I've received from Jennifer Gratz.  Jennifer Gratz was the lead plaintiff in the lawsuit Gratz v. Bollinger against the University of Michigan for racial discrimination in admissions policy.  Her suit was based on the fact that Michigan gave a 20% plus boost to underrepresented minorities in admissions.  On June 23, 2003, the United States Supreme Court ruled that this policy was indeed discriminatory and unconstitutional.  Following her lawsuit, she spearheaded the Michigan Civil Rights Initiative (MCRI), a constitutional amendment that made race and gender preferences unconstitutional in public education, employment, and contracting.  In November 2006, voters passed MCRI with 58% of the vote.  (See her endorsement letter here: http://www.rightmichigan.com/story/2012/4/18/23730/1986)

The endorsement that I care most about is of the Tea Party Conservatives and Precinct Delegates across the state who are the future of our state and our country.  Thank you to those of you who have joined our team, agreed to attend the county convention, and the state convention.

My goal is to inspire folks like you to run for office, and help provide support for Constitutional Conservatives to run at all levels of government.  I will continue to be available to tea party activists and other grassroots conservatives from across the state at any time, and will seek to restore the Grand Old Party to its liberty-minded, rule of law foundation.

Together, we will return our party and our country to core conservative principles.

Sincerely,

Representative Dave Agema

Judging by the names on that list, it would seem that Dave has a pretty solid base of support outside the I-69 arc, a bridgehead in the counties surrounding Lansing, and a deep-behind-the-lines beachhead in Monroe, Washtenaw, and Wayne counties.

Does anyone want to offer odds on which way that line's going to move between now and mid-May?

I've made the observation before (most pointedly in the aftermath of the August 2010 State Convention), and I'll make it again; there are some within the state party establishment that will pull out all of the stops and fight ruthlessly by any means necessary to protect their positions of power, status, and access.  Such individuals need to be reminded of John F. Kennedy's admonishment that those who make peaceful takeover impossible will make revolt inevitable.  By this I mean that the sense I'm getting from the tea party and grassroots activists that I've spoken to is that, beginning with the May state convention, the Michigan Republican Party is going to be faced with two mutually exclusive alternatives: either be reformed from within, or ultimately self-implode.

The former will restore the Grand Old Party to a place of vitality and credibility in Michigan and American politics; the latter will ultimately assign it to the ash bin of history.