Re-looking at the polling numbers from a week and a half ago for a comment reply brought a little optimism for Michigan.  I looked back:

There have been TP express folks rolling through the state non stop.

It is seen as winnable.  Take this polling for example.

The polling shows a less than 4% lead for the president, which is in the statistical margin of error.  YES it could be swung the other way, (error effect) but there are still more than 13% according to the poll who remain undecided.

Ask yourself this:  
If 13 percent have not already decided, which way would they sway when it comes time to vote?

A couple percent already committed to 3rd party, and may see another 1 percent from protest votes, but the majority of those will vote for the R or D.

Undecided for what reasons?
In the case of Obama, he hasn't done whats necessary to sell them on a second term.
In the case of Romney, its the devil you don't know.

Obama hasn't made the case he is a good leader or that his ideas work.  Romney as an unknown might cause a little concern, but at a decision making point, the new not yet tried will usually be chosen over the obvious failures of the old. (Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me)

13 points undecided is a MONSTER break for Mitt Romney.  Its the greatest secret this election.  Mark my words.

And then I looked forward to the poll mentioned as an "outlier":

President Barack Obama             46.92%
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney            46.56%
another candidate            2.30%
Undecided             4.23%

Think about what that means.  Look at the questions asked, and the responses, and tell me you don't see an over sampling of frustrated Democrats.

There is a good chance we see something no one expected only a few months ago.  Michigan for Romney By 1 1/2 points.