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Michigan's 1st Congressional District Suffers Under ObamaBy JGillman, Section News
Michiganders, much like the rest of the nation, have found themselves organizing and protesting and committing themselves to change. Bart Stupak was a "marked man" for his capitulation with the Obama administration and his willingness to go against the wishes of his constituents, Michigan's 1st Congressional District.
A seat held for multiple terms by a Democrat, saw a number of candidates make a bid in the Republican primary. Those candidates sensing the public has finally begun to understand a Democrat shift leftward towards socialism, decided the time was at hand to make a run for that office. The primary produced a conservative Republican candidate, and a Democrat candidate who is likely to be fairly similar to Stupak. (Without the baggage of lying to his constituents) It seemed as though the race would be clear. Whomever delivers a solid message that speaks to the values of CD1 voters would win the seat. And given the sentiment towards the administration which has not yet gotten it right, a Republican victory by Dan Benishek seemed to be the most likely outcome. A 4-5 point victory perhaps, and maybe even tighter if the big labor element and the Michigan Democrat party spends a few dollars propping up its candidate.
Recent polling bears out a pretty solid lead by Benishek, with a 13 point lead over McDowell in a 2 way race, and a 14 point lead over McDowell in a four way race that includes a disqualified fake tea candidate, and a candidate pulling 6% who would seem a likely spoiler.
Right now there is a great debate on whether the "Bush tax breaks" are allowed to expire, or if there will be a modified version put in place to replace it that punishes only the uber rich (those making over $250K )and ending THEIR cuts.
Bottom line for the 1st Congressional District? President Obama's tax plan would allow portions of the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts to expire, resulting in steep tax hikes beginning in January 2011 for small businesses and those earning $250,000 or more. The tax hikes would significantly affect the economy in Michigan, most notably in the number of jobs and change in personal income. Among the results, from 2011 to 2020, Michigan's Congressional District 1 would:
Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on the IHS Global Insight U.S. macroeconomic model, and data from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. In CD1 alone these numbers affect REAL people. Consider the average business owner in the UP or northern Michigan region. (Chain stores are pretty much non existent in most areas) These folks might actually break the $250K barrier one year, but then be saddled with costs they cannot retroactively expense from time to time. A small business comes with a number of variables no government could EVER properly predict. Any real effect on the bottom line due to taxes, has only one possible outcome: The loss of real jobs to replace or buffer the lost income the business owners face. Furthermore, the loss of wealth to the district by $576 million through taxes alone is unacceptable. It is merely a funneling of CD1 money into an unaccountable federal bureaucracy. Two things to note stand out.
Benishek, if elected will not likely have the opportunity to decide on whether the break remains, but an election of McDowell would be seen as an approval of the money grab policies by this administration, and Michigan's CD1 voters would see additional measures that run counter to common sense or their common values.
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 Related Links+ Recent polling bears out a pretty solid lead by Benishek,+ + [2] + [3] + Also by JGillman |
