Before I get into the meat of what I want to discuss, I'd like to backtrack a bit to a National Journal article from February 7, 2013.  Apparently, while we were more focused on the run-up to the February 2013 MIGOP State Convention, the GoverNerd was already tacking left and massaging his donor network to prepare against a potential primary fight.  And even then, party insiders were invoking the "corinthian scales fallacy" to claim that the republican base would look at passing right-to-work, stopping the SEIU "dues skim," blocking the forced unionization of graduate students, approving teacher tenure reform, and three straight balanced budgets approved three months ahead of deadline; concluding that, on balance, reelecting Snyder isn't such a bad proposition.

In doing so, the party elites confuse the liberty-minded network with the typical low-information voter.  The network isn't likely to forget that Slick Rick vetoed expanded concealed-carry permits, vetoed strengthened voter identification policies, vetoed greater legislative oversight of executive memorandums, and signed an executive agreement with Ontario to build the NITC/DRIC Bridge (bypassing the state legislature).  Nor will they forget that, back in August 2010, the Nerd King "won" the republican gubernatorial primary with a plurality of only 36.40%, and that it's an open question as to how he'd have fared in a runoff against Pete Hoekstra, given that 36.73% of the votes cast in the primary went to someone other than the top two (who were separated by 9.53%).

If Snyder's "reforms" are to be balanced against anything, according to the network, they ought to be balanced against the reality that he initially resisted all of them, and didn't change his position until it was politically profitable to do so.

The most recent approval / disapproval rating for Snyder that I'm familiar with is 40% / 52%.  This is the same poll, by the way, that has Mark Schauer currently leading by four points statewide, even though Schauer only has 38% statewide name recognition.  Coupling those two facts with the observation that Schauer leads by an average of 2.8% in all hypothetical head-to-head polling since mid-December, I can see why Stuart Rothenberg over at Roll Call recently made the decision to add Michigan to Florida and Virginia as a "pure tossup" campaign (squaring with Larry J. Sabato of UVA's Crystal Ball and Jennifer Duffy of The Cook Political Report).

I suspect that a guy who won election by a margin of 18.21% would prefer to start his re-election campaign somewhere other than in a three-point hole, but it is what it is.  Precisely how vulnerable Snyder is to a primary challenge isn't definitively known just yet, but the scuttlebutt that he's effectively self-primarying is really starting to gain some traction.

This brings me to last Saturday's State Committee meeting, and specifically the Policy Committee meeting, at which a rather interesting rules change was proposed.  Keep in mind that rules change that you see at the link was neither the original proposal nor the one that was finally passed out of committee.  The original proposal was to give the gubernatorial nominee sole and exclusive executive discretion to choose his running mate; no challengers, no floor nominations, nothing.  Thankfully, wiser heads on the committee prevailed.  What actually passed was something like this:

• The filing deadline for all 2014 convention candidates (executive, educational, and judicial) is Tuesday, May 13, 2013, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time.  The Affidavit of Candidacy shall be a form prepared and provided by the Policy Committee and submitted to the State Party Chairman.  This includes any challengers to the Lieutenant Governor nomination.

• A candidate who misses the filing deadline can override that deadline by obtaining the signatures of at least seven (7) district chairs.  Also, a non-incumbent republican gubernatorial nominee - do they actually think Snyder's that vulnerable? - can submit his own candidate, as long as it's done before Friday, August 15, 2014, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

• Anyone who hasn't filed by Friday, August 15, 2014, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time, can still run (if their paperwork is otherwise in order), but must do so as a write-in candidate.

Now that the concept is out there, I want you to consider that, in this context, we need to be cautious of anyone who steps up and claims to be "the challenger to the establishment" and announces a challenge to Calley, should Snyder survive a primary challenge (or not face one at all).  If the Second Executive is truly as vulnerable as this rule change makes him appear, and if the "replace Calley" scuttlebutt picks up any credible traction, then I can guaran-damn-tee you that a "false flag" challenger will show up, it'll only be a matter of whom, when, and how long.

In the meantime, thanks Mr. Wellday, for giving me a heads up on something that wasn't even on my radar.  Consider it in my project hopper.