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Michigan Republicans did not lose 62% of Partisan Races

By Conservative First, Section News
Posted on Wed Mar 13, 2013 at 11:20:17 PM EST
Tags: 62% failure on Election Day (all tags)

Promoted for discussion ~

The claim that Michigan Republicans lost 62% of all partisan races appeared here and
here on RightMichigan.

As Todd Courser has pointed out, in spite of having a candidate in every single partisan race on the November ballot, at every level (federal, state, county, and local) -- something that the MDP was unable to accomplish -- in spite of that, and the oodles of money spent, the MIGOP still lost 62% of all partisan races in the November 2012 election.

This didn't sound right to me, so I started adding up the numbers.

Office: R/D
Statewide: 0/10
Congress: 9/5
State House: 59/51
Countywide offices: 342/145/1 (70% Republicans)
County Commissioners: 379/201/4 (65% Republicans)

There are a few counties where I couldn't find data. They are Lake, Osceola, Montmorency, Presque Isle, Menominee, Baraga, Iron for countywide officers and Lake, Osceola, Montmorency, Menominee, Iron, Ontonagon for county commissioners. If anyone has data on the partisan composition of the elected officials in the missing counties, please let me know.

Now, there's no way that I'm going to look up data for all of Michigan's 1240 townships, but they should be even more Republican than the county commissioners. That's because democrats tend to concentrate in the cities, which have non-partisan elections, while Republicans are more likely to live in rural and suburban areas. For example, in Kalamazoo County, which is swingy overall, there are 77 Republican and 18 democrat township officials.

My guesstimate would be that Republicans won about 70% of partisan elections in Michigan in 2012.

Now, whether this is a meaningful statistic is another question. The jurisdictions that Republicans won would tend to be smaller than those won by democrats since townships are more rural. The fact that cities have nonpartisan elections also skews the numbers.

Still, the "62% democrats" statistic is clearly false.

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Michigan Republicans did not lose 62% of Partisan Races | 10 comments (10 topical, 0 hidden)

It is strange that it was never challenged. (none / 0) (#1)
by JGillman on Thu Mar 14, 2013 at 08:13:23 AM EST

That is something to consider when challenging it now, sans a complete data set. Perhaps the MiGOP didn't want to get into the discussion of percentages when faced with a near total loss of statewide Republican, or Republican nominated seats.

A "guesstimate" doesn't cut it when making a statement as you did in the title. You have done some great research before, and I would expect to see the same level of factual premise before making such a claim.

However, as I mentioned in the comments on the RM piece you linked, I too would like to see the basis for the 62% claim initially made.

Bobby lost more than 62% for the party (none / 0) (#2)
by Corinthian Scales on Thu Mar 14, 2013 at 09:22:38 AM EST

It's called integrity.

You all can squander your time away attempting to pick fly sh!t out of pepper, but the fact remains that you're fighting over who gets the steering wheel of the hearse.

Damn shame that those who consider themselves Conservative are too slow to pick up on that.

cherry picking statistics (none / 0) (#3)
by Republican Michigander on Thu Mar 14, 2013 at 11:03:51 AM EST

I think Courser's people were referring to president, congress, senate, and most of all the trustees. It didn't include Supreme Court which was 2-1 (R).
9 for 24 = 62.5% Loss

Add Supreme Court and state reps which are generally under state "jurisdiction" -

59+9+2 = 70 = 51.095%
51+15+1 = 67 = 48.905%

I was tied up with planning for 8th caucus and my portion of it, so I didn't have time to go over that claim.

Going over those on microlevel.

POTUS - I can tell you for a fact that the loss would have been worse without Schostak. There would have been almost zero signs otherwise. Boston hung us out to dry.

Senate - Hoesktra campaign was one of the most disappointing I've ever seen. I knew that race was lost in August.

Trustees - Historically they live and die with the top of the ticket within a couple of percent. That goes from the active campaigns like Foster and Sakwa to some of the inactive ones. Now is the best strategy with these going all in at the top of the ticket and/or a famous name? That can be debated.

Opposing parties winning Trustee/Regents
98 - Fieger blowout - (D) - Kelly for WSU, White for UM (Phil Power lost though), Gire for St Board,

2000 - 5pt loss (R) - Romney for MSU,

2002 - 4pt loss (R) - Curtin for St Board, Nugent for MSU, Newman and Richner for UM, Dunaskiss for WSU

2004 - 4pt loss (R) - Foster for MSU, Danhof for St Board

2006, 2008, 2010, 2012 - Sweeps.

In non presidential years, there's more of a chance to get people through from the non winning party in a non wave election. In 2002, the R's won more than the D's. In presidential, the strongest sometimes get by if the race is within 5% (Foster).

8-9 pts or more? That's tough. Too many straight tickets.

The best thing we can do for our trustee and state board candidates is to eliminate that one straight ticket circle, and hope the the Detroiters that vote go in, vote for one office, and go home.

Two items by JGillman, 03/14/2013 11:09:59 AM EST (none / 0)
Consulting: by Corinthian Scales, 03/14/2013 11:36:12 AM EST (none / 0)
OK, that makes sense by Conservative First, 03/14/2013 03:18:27 PM EST (none / 0)

You can't even unseat Fred Upton by Corinthian Scales, 03/14/2013 03:32:57 PM EST (none / 0)
Umm by SBechtel, 03/14/2013 03:53:30 PM EST (5.00 / 1)
Control what can be controlled by Republican Michigander, 03/14/2013 04:49:36 PM EST (none / 0)

By golly we agree... by Corinthian Scales, 03/14/2013 05:03:04 PM EST (none / 0)

Michigan Republicans did not lose 62% of Partisan Races | 10 comments (10 topical, 0 hidden)

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Raise the curtain.

Michigan Republicans did not lose 62% of Partisan Races

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