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What Am I Missing?

By Kevin Rex Heine, Section News
Posted on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 12:50:35 PM EST
Tags: 2012 State Representative Elections, District 39, District 52, District 55, District 71, District 76, District 84, District 91, District 110 (all tags)

It's generally considered so that the pre-election balance of power in the Michigan State House was 63 R / 47 D. According to the Detroit News (among other sources) our post-election balance in that same legislative body is now 59 R / 51 D, for a four-seat pickup by the Michigan Dems. But as I was scrounging through the district-by-district results, I noticed something strange.

First, if you go to the current Republican Caucus list on the Michigan House of Representatives website, and count the actual membership, you'll notice that the 2012 pre-election head count is a 64-member caucus. Apparently, Roy Schmidt's fraudulent party switch was treated as a flipped seat.

Second, according to the Unofficial Election Results of the State Representative races (available from the Michigan Secretary of State), the incumbent party retained possession of all seats except the following:

District 39: Pam Jackson (Democrat), defending the seat for Lisa Brown, is ousted by Klint Kresto (Republican)
District 52: Mark Ouimet (Republican), is ousted by Gretchen Driskell (Democrat)
District 55: Owen Diaz (Republican), defending the seat for Rick Olson, is ousted by Adam Zenke (Democrat)
District 71: Deb Shaugnessy (Republican) is ousted by Theresa Abed (Democrat)
District 76: Roy Schmidt (allegedly Republican) is ousted by Winnie Brinks (definitely Democrat)
District 84: Dan Grimshaw (Republican), who ousted Kurt Damrow in the primary, was in turn ousted by Terry Brown (Democrat)
District 91: Holly Hughes (Republican) was ousted by Collene Lamonte (Democrat), which, as her second ouster this year, likely didn't do Holly's political career any favors
District 110: Matt Huuki (Republican) was ousted by Scott Dianda (Democrat)

Which, after running the math, produces a net pickup of 6 seats for the Michigan Democrat Party, not 4, and a new balance of power of 57 R / 53 D. But, since this isn't what's being widely reported, the question then becomes: What am I missing here?

< Stolen Faster Than They Can Tax | Cronyism >

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What Am I Missing? | 8 comments (8 topical, 0 hidden)

I forgot to link . . . (none / 0) (#1)
by Kevin Rex Heine on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 01:31:14 PM EST

. . . to the actual "Unofficial Election Results of the State Representative races" so as to give everyone the right spot to start in order to double check my thinking.

So, smaller molehill? (none / 0) (#2)
by Corinthian Scales on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 03:08:19 PM EST

This looks even dumber now?

Your math is off (none / 0) (#3)
by InksLWC on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 03:15:53 PM EST

64 + - 7 + 1 = 58. So, if your list is accurate, it should be 58-52.

And if Schmidt is counted as a Dem by InksLWC, 11/13/2012 03:18:10 PM EST (none / 0)

Found the error (none / 0) (#5)
by InksLWC on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 03:26:08 PM EST

District 42, where Shanda Willis was defending Harold Haugh's district flipped to the Republicans when Bill Rogers won.

Renumbering by Conservative First, 11/13/2012 05:50:26 PM EST (none / 0)

Ahh ok... by InksLWC, 11/13/2012 06:59:40 PM EST (none / 0)

What you're missing (none / 0) (#6)
by Conservative First on Tue Nov 13, 2012 at 05:44:20 PM EST

is redistricting. Detroit lost three seats, and hence so did the democrats. One went to Macomb, which the democrats won. One (17) went to Monroe, which the democrats won. One went to Kent (74), which Republicans won.

So dems picked up 7 seats, and Republicans picked up two seats (39 and 74). Thus 64-7+2 = 59 Republicans in the hew state house.

What Am I Missing? | 8 comments (8 topical, 0 hidden)

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