The first survey (conducted between the 8th and the 12th of November) contained four questions:

First question:  Do you intend to be a delegate to the 2011 MIGOP State Convention?

Second question:  Who is your choice (and backup choice) for MIGOP state party chair?

Third question:  What method do you prefer for awarding delegates to the national convention, at which the presidential candidate will be nominated?

Fourth question:  Who is your choice (and backup choice) for 2012 GOP presidential nominee?

The second survey (conducted between the 15th and 19th) had three questions:

First question:  If there were two candidates running for Michigan Republican Party Chairman, - one supported by the establishment Republicans and Rick Snyder, and the other supported by tea party members across the state - which one would you be more likely to support?

Second question:  Would you be more or less likely to support a candidate for State Chairman if you knew that candidate was supported by Rick Snyder?

Third question:  Would you be more or less likely to support a candidate for State Chairman if you knew that candidate was supported by the Tea Party?

Note that "undecided at this time" (or anything similar) was not an answer option in either survey, on any question.  And, for the record, the only question that I actually answered was the first question of the first survey (intending to attend the 2011 MIGOP State Convention); the rest were answered by, "next," "next," and "done" without actually selecting an option.

As a note (that may or may not be a sidebar), both surveys were conducted by Midwest Polling.  According to their Twitter page, Midwest Polling is a Madison, Wisconsin, based "Foundation for Media Research."

For the purpose of providing some background, you may recall a couple of blog posts (here and here) where I suggested that there were some shenanigans afoot at the August 2010 MIGOP State Convention.  Let me be clear about this:  While I don't (as yet) have any evidence that will stand up in court, I have a plentiful "smoke trail" that indicates that at least two of the contested ballots at state convention were rigged in favor of the winners.  If I'm right, this wasn't done by tampering with the voting machines, but rather by rigging the credentialing process.

Hang on; I'll get back to that.

Anyone who was paying attention about two months ago noticed that Michigan has rather dramatically shifted from a blue state to a red state.  That fact effectively takes Michigan out of "flyover country" and puts us smack dab in the middle of the "battleground states" . . . or at least it should seem so.  Given how dramatically Michigan just shifted "state colors," about the only way we could potentially provide a bigger shake-up to the Electoral College is to adopt the Congressional District Method (currently used by Maine and Nebraska) of apportioning out our [projected] 16 electoral votes; which California attempted to do with theirs in 2008 (though the proposal failed to make the ballot).  My guess is that, unlike the campaignus interruptus of 2008, it's going to get real interesting in these here parts over the next two dozen months.  In other words, Michigan is going to become important again.

I don't know if anyone noticed this, but of the 18 candidates endorsed by the Independence Caucus of Michigan in this year's general campaign, 10 of them won on November 2nd . . . which amounts to just over 27% of the total success of the Independence Caucus efforts nationwide.  Many of these Michigan victories were the result of a groundswell of grassroots work in door-to-door campaigning; which produced a more-or-less unified effort from the Independence Caucus of Michigan, the Michigan Tea Party Alliance, the Fix Michigan Network, and key county party committees.

I know that, at the Kent County Republican election night party, every single one of the I-Caucus endorsed candidates (Amash, Hildenbrand, Agema, and Hooker) made a point to drop by the I-Caucus tables (located with a front-row view of the stage) to personally thank us for our efforts on their behalf.  Dave Hildenbrand in particular was very grateful for our efforts on the ground in Kentwood, which was THE difference in his campaign against David LaGrand and Bill Gelineau for the 29th State Senate seat - as I discussed in a pre-election post.  Even non-endorsed candidates who had benefitted from our efforts (including key county commission winners) spoke with us directly to express their gratitude.

The truth that all of them are aware of is that the TEA Party Movement isn't going anywhere anytime soon.  Just like the conservative uprising that started under Goldwater and climaxed with Reagan, this new breed of "freedom fighters" isn't going away just because we won this one.  On the contrary, to borrow from Ken Braun, our work is just getting started.  That fact alone has not only the Socialist-Progressive-Liberal Democrats running scared, but also the moderate-centrist and country-club wings of the GOP are now far more nervous than they'll ever admit to publicly.

The post-election county conventions were the ones at which county leadership had been decided.  That leadership is typically vested in four officers (Chair, Vice-Chair, Secretary, and Treasurer) and an Executive Committee.  The executive committee acts as a sort of steering/strategy committee for the county party, and positions are typically for two-year terms.  The value of these officers and committee members shouldn't be underestimated, as they are the ones largely responsible for local candidate recruitment and campaign funding.  To some extent, they are also responsible for organizing the "ground game" of local campaigns.  (And by "local" I mean any race below either federal or statewide level.)

The I-Caucus/MTPA partnership, with the August 2010 fiasco fresh in their minds, desires the ouster of the corrupted elements at the state level of the MIGOP.  But effective control of the state party apparatus starts at the county level, during the post-election county conventions.  Some county party committees, knowing this was coming, may have tried some interesting parliamentary stunts to keep their chosen ones attached to the levers of power.  Others embraced the reality that the tea party movement is an integral part of the political landscape, and realized that the smartest move was to make sure that they had a seat at the table.

The fact of the matter is that, with the exception of Youth Chair, there isn't much to be decided at the State Convention anyway.  The real fight is going to be at the district conventions, which will be held the night before the main convention.  At these conventions (one for each current congressional district), all four district officers and all state committee posts (two per committee per district) are to be decided.  This is where the action will be.

An effective district board of officers can do a thorough enough job of fundraising and candidate recruitment as to make state and national committee resources a secondary concern (useful if the big guns are really needed, but can be allocated elsewhere otherwise) for the purpose of congressional and state legislature races.  An ineffective district board, on the other hand, will tie down more state and national resources than should be necessary . . . including resources that might be better used elsewhere.  The establishment knows that the tea partiers are going to snag as many of those district positions as they can, and that every one lost to them reduces the likelihood of "old guard" candidates showing up on future ballots.

Likewise, of the assortment of committees on the state party, only three of those (Rules, Policy, and Finance) much matter.  It isn't that the other committees aren't important, it's that they don't have the impact on the inner workings of the state party that the "big three" do.  Again, the more positions on those three committees fall into the hands of the MTPA/I-Caucus partnership, the less influence the "old guard" will have within the MIGOP.

So, if the tea partiers can shoehorn their way into enough convention delegate slots at their county conventions this Monday next, then they have a better-than-even shot at making life miserable for the establishment at the district conventions three Fridays hence.  And you can bet your fanny that those with a vested interest in maintaining the status quo with respect to the levers of power (to include a certain "power family" from the west side) are already researching the deep magic of arcane parliamentary tricks and obscure rules references with the intention of doing precisely that.  And that includes, if necessary, minimizing the number of "unfavorable" delegates that show up to the district conventions . . . by any means necessary.

Keep in mind that you don't have to be a precinct delegate to be selected as a convention delegate, but you do have to show up as your county convention.  Once you are selected as a convention delegate, start tracking down a hotel room in the Grand Rapids Metro Area.  (Many will be offering discounted rates if you can prove you're with the convention.)

And then start doing your homework immediately.  Research, compare notes with other delegates, and coordinate your efforts with those like-minded individuals who will also be in attendance.  (And every so often, double-check your six.)  Election Day 2010 was the first chapter in taking back our state . . . it's time to start writing the second one.

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TOGETHER . . . we can fix Michigan