Let's be honest here... these days if you get 21 Republicans in a room in Lansing you're probably going to have substantive disagreements with two or three of them (at least).  Conservatives lose TWO members right now on any issue and the universally liberal Democrats need only have LG John Cherry cast his tie-breaking vote to move their agenda.  A 22-16 advantage eliminates the nearly impossible need to muster almost unanimous caucus agreement on any issue.  In other words, this is a big freaking deal.

Where: Michigan's 19th Senate District is comprised of Calhoun and most of Jackson Counties.

Battle Creek is the heart of the Dem voting block in the 19th and is either a major obstacle or a major opportunity.  Finding a GOP candidate who can play well in Calhoun County, Battle Creek specifically, or going up against a Dem candidate who doesn't play well in Calhoun County, Battle Creek specifically could flip this thing from blue to red.  

It's far too early in the process to label anything any sort of "key" to victory, but the Battle Creek dynamic is extremely important.

The Odds: Depends on your perspective.  This is a left-leaning district that Schauer won fairly handily with an incumbent title in 2006.  

That said, there are a handful of interesting dynamics that could make the race competitive, not least is the understanding, across the district, that the last Democrat they elected lied to them about using their votes as a stepping stone.  Poll after poll across the state show an overwhelming dislike for the folks in Lansing and DC.  There's a serious anti-incumbency trend but it has always been thwarted by the "MY member isn't the problem" mentality.  With Schauer making his new home inside the beltway the Democrats will face all of the anti-incumbent sentiment but receive none of the hometown hero sentiment.

And let's not forget... Michigan voters really want "change."  In the 19th that'd mean opting not to elect another Democrat.

The odds change, obviously, as the field of candidates emerge along with their own geographic, policy and personal strengths and weaknesses.

Timeline: Up in the air.

When Schauer beats feet for DC (something, again, he promised his constituents back in 2006 that he wouldn't do) his Senate seat goes vacant.  That will be January 6th, assuming he keeps his word about sticking around until the swearing-in... of course this is the guy who has earned the nickname "The Liar," so that's a big assumption.  But let's pretend he's got a shred of credibility.  

What happens on January 6th?  That's entirely up in the air.  Here in Michigan it falls to the Governor to schedule a special election, if and when it suits her.  Historically, she hasn't exactly been prompt.  Witness her decision to leave the people of Monroe County without representation for months after their House member passed away.

In theory, the woman could never call a special and allow the seat to remain vacant until the November 2010 General Election.  I do NOT think that's likely.  If I read the Governor and Michigan Democrats right, they've got designs on the State Senate as a whole in 2010 and they want to make sure they've got someone on the ballot that November with an incumbent tag.

It's a moderate - left district with an outgoing Democrat in a state that only a month ago elected Democrats just about anywhere they found themselves on the ballot.  For the sake of argument, let's imagine she wants to capitalize on that perceived lefty momentum and announces a special the same day Schauer leaves the state, January 6, 2009.

That'd actually set up two elections, a primary and a special general.  The parties would have a chance to duke it out amongst themselves to pick their favorites and then they'd tee-off against each other after the dust settles.  There must be a minimum of 21 days between the special primary and the special general in order to allow for the printing of ballots and absentee / overseas voting.  

The political professionals tend to believe that the fastest a general could take place is 60 days from the date of vacancy.

One important date to consider is the consolidated election Tuesday at the end of February.  We've already got a February 24, 2009 date on the books for clerks across the state.  It'd make a ton of sense to schedule the special primary on this date.  The election / polling place apparatus will already be lit up like a belated-Christmas tree and it'd save local clerks some serious bank to be able to truly consolidate.

That'd put us on pace for a late-March / early-April special general.

Up Next: Potential candidates