. . . as of last Friday (according to the RCP Poll Average, which is a fairly reliable trend indicator):
80% of the people who will probably vote in today's Republican primary have pretty much made up their minds. About 25% break for Hoekstra, 22% each for Cox and Snyder, and 11% for Bouchard. (The margin of error was +/- 3%.) That leaves about 20% undecided as of four days ago; I suspect that may have tightened over the weekend.
Pete Hoekstra has, by all accounts, an effective stranglehold on the West Michigan portion of the primary (think 2nd, 3rd, and 6th congressional districts). And while Snyder may have an effective ground game in Northern, Central, and Upper Michigan, that hasn't canceled out the ground games of Hoekstra and Cox (or Bouchard, for that matter). Southeast Michigan (the area between the I-69 corridor and Lake Erie) will decide the gubernatorial primary.
Cox, Snyder, and Bouchard all have a strong home-field presence in Southeast Michigan; that shouldn't surprise anyone. This is why Hoekstra has invested significant campaign resources into this area of the state. And it also should be fairly obvious that Southeast Michigan is where the gubernatorial primary will likely be decided.
Mark my words, if either Cox, Snyder, or Bouchard dominate Southeast Michigan today, then it's all over. However, as long as either Bouchard or Hoekstra (and ideally both) put in a credible showing here, then neither Cox nor Snyder will dominate. If that scenario holds, and Pete doesn't choke in his own backyard, then he should win the nomination. Go ahead, write that down.
As a sidebar, let me point out that as of four days ago in the Democrat primary, Dillon has only a 0.5% lead on Bernero . . . with 49% of the likely voters undecided. Now maybe I'm inferring incorrectly, but I think that we needn't worry overmuch about a jackass crossover into our primary.
