Let's no forget the inter-party dynamics of the G.O.P. in Michigan.
Bouchard and Hoeskstra come from the Romney wing; having both been on the Michigan native-cum-former Massachusetts governor's team as he was running for president.
Cox, Snyder and Land were with John McCain, though the attorney general quit his position as the state's campaign chairman in the months leading up to the primary over a reported feud with Chuck Yob. Yob and his son, John, are fully behind Rick Snyder, who has used his billions to hire their service and attract the support of their political machine. This has significantly hurt Land, who has always been a Yobite.
While the Yobs do win their fair share of nominations determined at party convention, their record of winning primaries and general elections is less than desirable.
L. Brooks Patterson was probably the only figure that could have unified Romney and Yob factions; at least in southeastern Michigan. With him not in the race, the Oakland County Republican establishment was begging Bouchard to get into the race because they are desperate to keep whatever G.O.P power is left in the ever-changing political landscape of Michigan's second-largest county. That is also why Mike Bishop is running for attorney general; they hope that two, or at least one, O.C. native son will carry the county in 2010 and reverse the losses of 2008, 2006, 2004, etc.
But back to the governor's race. I don't think all these candidates can stay in the race. Land is desperate for support; her candidacy is collapsing and she struggled at the Detroit Chamber conference last week. And George, well, doesn't have much of a chance. It's my guess that Land and George are positioning themselves to be a lieutenant governor running-mate.
Snyder has the money to be viable, but I get the idea that many Republicans don't want another Dick DeVos-type candidate after the 2006 election. Additionally, his connections to the Yobs automatically turnoff half of the party's insiders and leaders.
Cox has strong credentials and could emerge the insider's candidate because Bouchard and Hoekstra will fight it out for the Romney vote. It will be very interesting to see if Romney makes an endorsement.
I guess we will have to wait to see some polling on Bouchard, as I don't know if his name recognition is that strong outside of party insiders.
This race will be interesting to watch for political diehards. A little-known congressman leads the pack, according to the polls that have been publicly released since L. Brooks Patterson withdrew. Democrats should be concerned about Hoekstra because he has enough middle-ground appeal on issues to be a real threat in the general election. Let's not forget that he will will probably grab the Teamsters endorsement, which is quite the accomplishment for a Republican running for statewide office. I also think Bouchard may be a top tier candidate because he certainly racked up the votes in Oakland County this year despite the Democrats carrying the county at the top of the ticket. The question is will ticket-splitters vote for him in a statewide race. After all, he did lose Oakland County in his 2006 U.S. Senate race.
