Fun with delegate numbers
Because legislators chose a date prior to March 15, the is no winner take all system in place. Currently polling has Trump at about 42%, Cruz and Kasich each at about 20, and Rubio falling flat at 10 or so. In the delegate pooling (hopefully I calculated this correctly), this would result in 25 delegates for Trump, 12 for Cruz, 12 For Kasich and zero for Rubio. The remainder is split the same 8 for Trump, and 1 each for Kasich and Cruz.
- Trump 33
- Cruz 13
- Kasich 13
- Rubio 0
Up until recently, Kasich had been polling below 15. If Both Rubio and Kasich were both at 14% with Trump and Cruz splitting the difference, Trump at 45 and Cruz at 22, with the remaining 5% going to withdrawn candidates, it would result in a bit of a change. Trump would get 27 plus 9 plus 3 plus1 plus 1, Cruz 13 plus 4 plus 1, and no other distribution for the other candidates.
- Trump 41
- Cruz 18
- Kasich 0
- Rubio 0
The way in which voting breaks will determine the final count, but this provides a couple of examples on how the delegate distribution will break down. In this example Cruz only loses 5 delegates to Trump’s 8.
However, those who are voting for Kasich as an alternative to Trump or Cruz, are asking for a brokered affair which I lovingly refer to as #Republigeddon. Reaching the 50% threshold or being as close to it as possible will make the first round voting the decider for the contest. After the first round, if there is no winner, Michigan’s delegates are unbound, and that is when the trouble starts.
Though sub 15% performance by Kasich and Rubio would be better for a first round pick, it would also be to a slight advantage by Trump over Cruz in the count. However, in the event Kasich or Rubio (or both) overperform in Michigan, and actually get more than 15% but THEN withdraw, the END result might be to the advantage of Cruz if those delegates are not inclined to support Trump.
Full rules are of course, available here