Michigan Politics

Michigan Political considerations.

Clash of Titans, EPA Wrecks the Electricity Grid

Feds Step In, Things Get Much Worse

godzilla electrical lines 2
Part II

Things may have quieted down in Michigan after Proposal 3’s demise in 2012, but President Obama’s EPA were furiously developing their ‘War on Coal’ to dramatically increase the cost reduce pollution of electricity generation. The Mercury and Air Toxics (MATs, also known as MACT) rule requires scrubbers on all coal-fired power plants nationally, costing something north of $ 1 million per steam boiler. The Cross State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) requires Michigan coal-fired power plants to reduce their thermal efficiency during peak summertime generating periods to reduce oxides of nitrogen at a yet to be determined cost.

In 2014, EPA’s ‘Cooling Water Intake Structures’ rule finally went into effect after a decade of legal wrangling, requiring that Michigan’s electrical utilities take some very expensive steps over 8 years to protect the Great Lakes’ beloved zebra mussel and round goby populations.

At the end of 2014, EPA imposed newly restrictive rules on the disposal of coal combustion residuals (CCRs), commonly known as coal ash, from coal-fired power plants. Almost unique in the history of Federal regulation, EPA admitted in their final CCR rule that it had a negative cost-benefit ratio. Fly ash, the most abundant CCR, is actually a remedy for the alkali-silica reaction (ASR) which causes premature failure of many MDoT concrete structures. So EPA managed to simultaneously increase Michigan’s cost of electricity generation and reduce the lifespan of our roads and bridges. An Obama ‘two fer’.

EPA expects to finalize its ‘Effluent Limitations Guidelines and Standards for the Steam Electric Power Generating Point Source Category’ in September 2015. Known by the acronyms SEEG or ELG, these rules will change the way all electrical power stations handle cooling, process, and steam condensate water. These rules cover all steam powered turbine operations, but will most severely affect coal-fired power stations whose MATs required scrubbers and CCR required ash handling systems will generate a lot of waste water.

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Clash of Titans Coming to Michigan

After Proposal 1, After Plan B, Electricity Front and Center

godzilla-biollante
Part I: Background

Later this year, Michigan’s electrical utilities are expected to satisfy the 10% Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requirements of PA 295 of 2008. Partial reregulation of electricity in Michigan under the same PA 295 of 2008 denied choice of supplier on 90% of electricity consumption, while exempting large, politically potent, electricity consumers. At the same time, the U.S. EPA is progressively tightening their noose around the neck of the coal industry with an array of ever more restrictive regulations upon coal-fired power plants. A political clash of titans is looming in Michigan.

Taken together, these circumstances will trigger a wild four-way donnybrook pitting electrical utilities, electricity consumers, and environmental wackos against one another later this year. But this is only three parties, so why do you say four-way? Large industrial consumers have substantially escaped the consequences of PA 295, while smaller Michigan consumers – including residential consumers – have experienced the fifth highest rate of electricity cost increases in the nation. These two electricity consuming groups’ interests do not coincide.

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Troy City Hall Tax Day Protest – NO to Proposal 15-1

TAX DAY PROTEST AGAINST SALES TAX HIKE!

Will you let Michigan’s sales tax increase this spring? Join fellow taxpayers on April 15th to protest the tax hike!

 taxday

Who: YOU & fellow taxpayers who think taxes on your family are high enough already!

What: A public protest against the May 5th vote to raise the state sales tax from 6 cents to 7 cents (a 17% increase) that will cost the average MI family $500 in new taxes next year if passed.

Where: 500 W. Big Beaver Road (Metro Parkway) In front of the Troy City Hall (just east of I-75 & Big Beaver Road intersection in Troy).

Park at Troy City Hall.

Why: Tax hike supporters are spending millions to pass this increase at the May election.  This rally is the best way for you to say, “No way!” .

When: Wednesday, April 15th from 5:00PM – 7:00PM.

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Say No To Proposal 15-1 Rally April 15

Opposing proposal 15-1 are the overtaxed citizens from BOTH sides of the spectrum.

Traverse City-Protest

Photo from actual Traverse City Protest.

It could possibly be an unusual gathering April 15.

Given the fact that most conservative Republicans and the left-of-center Democrats agree that the May 5th proposal is an unmitigated disaster, its possible they might actually walk side by side at 11AM in Front of the Traverse City Post Office on Tax Day. If one watches the polling results, follows through by reading the comments on the major media pro 15-1 shill attempts, one might walk away thinking the only the political class centrists are the ones who really really want this garbage.

Holding breath on working together? Not entirely.

However, what a treat it would be to shove this bad medicine down the throat of the cronyist Snyder and his milquetoast minions.  The mantra of there being “no plan B” is worn out already.  Putting taxpayers into a corner might elicit thoughts of the wolverine that is threatened once this play is done.  Higher taxes hurt the left as much as the right, and passage of this boondoggle is a constitutionally guaranteed increase of taxes every single year.

Where:  In front of Traverse City Post Office on Union and State St. 
When:   11 am till 1 pm or as long as you can.  April 15th tax day (Depending on size we may walk to the Parkway and Union St.)     Appropriate signs please.

If you are in the area on April 15 at 11AM, join 15-1 opponents to say NO to higher taxes.

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Michigan Budget At A Glance

As we go forward, these tools will be made available for a spot check on the Governor’s priorities.

This chart represents most of the Michigan spending based on Rick Snyder’s 2015 budget. The only section missing is the $5 million spent on the executive office.  The amounts shown here represent the TOTAL spending in any one area.  Additional charts showing more complete breakdowns of moneys spent and the sources will be made available as there is time.  The chart will also be modified to note the changes from the time Snyder took office in 2011 all the way through the 2016 desired numbers. (click on the image to enlargen)

Mi-Budget-3year

Note the significant increases in the community health (medicaid expansion), Treasury (MEDC, revenue sharing)  and school aid areas.

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February Michigan Unemployment 5.9% – Really?

Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Questions BLS State Level Employment Data Revisions

Philadelphia Fed Website 2015-04-06

Kurt Weiss at the Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget (DTMB) reported on March 25th that Michigan’s February 2015 seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 5.9% from January’s 6.3% figure. This was followed on April 2nd by the DTMB release of non seasonal adjusted employment data for February 2015. This quite large one month drop is great news for Michigan workers, if it indeed reflects our labor market. But does it?

Twelve Month Discrepancies Between Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data Differentials

The DTMB Michigan non seasonally adjusted (NSA) employment report for February 2015, at the bottom of page 6, showed that Michigan’s civilian labor force declined by 33,000 workers over the twelve preceding months. But the seasonally adjusted (SA) employment report for February 2015 at the top of page 2 showed that Michigan’s civilian labor force increased by 7,000 workers over the same twelve months. The growth of Michiganders employed over the same twelve month period also shows a 5,000 worker NSA/SA discrepancy: 101,000 not seasonally adjusted versus 96,000 seasonally adjusted. And the shrinkage of Michigan’s unemployed worker population over the same twelve month period shows a 46,000 worker NSA/SA discrepancy: 134,000 not seasonally adjusted versus 88,000 seasonally adjusted.

Valid seasonal corrections should produce twelve month differentials which agree with comparable item non seasonally adjusted differentials over the same twelve month period. Here we have a 0.85% discrepancy in Michigan’s total civilian labor force, a 0.1% discrepancy in civilian employment over the same twelve month period, and a 12.5% discrepancy in the shrinkage of Michigan’s unemployed worker population over the same twelve month period.

How did this happen?

The DTMB turns its employment data over to the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics for X-13ARIMA-SEAT seasonal adjustment. BLS also adjusts underlying data periodically for changes in the Michigan population estimates of the U.S. Census. The two (SA and NSA) February 2015 DTMB employment reports both reflect substantial BLS revisions undertaken in early 2015. A note at the top of page 2 in the DTMB February 2015 SA employment report:

Note: The data in this release reflects recently revised historical estimates. Seasonally adjusted labor force estimates for 1976-2014 for Michigan and 1990-2014 for the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn MSA were revised. Previous published data should be replaced with this new series. In addition, seasonally adjusted payroll job data was revised for 2010-2014. For newly revised data, please contact DTMB at 313-456-3090.

The DTMB February 2015 NSA employment report bears a similar note on its first page noting that it was also subjected to substantial revisions.

So Michigan’s employment data has been subjected to substantial revisions at BLS which produce seasonal adjustments that do not cross check against comparable item non seasonally adjusted data over the most recent 12 month period.

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Kurdys On Common Core In Traverse City

There is more of a problem with common core than bizarre math.

Melanie Kurdys is probably the foremost expert on the common core curriculum in Michigan.  She has logged hundreds of hours speaking on the topic and making folks aware of the ruination of our educational system.

In this video Melanie speaks to the Traverse Bay 912 group at one of it’s weekly meetings.

Enjoy.

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Getting The Message Out

RightMI.Com readership can make a difference in the effort to defeat the $2 Billion Dollar tax increase.

STOP-167Scales reminds us yesterday that all it takes is 50% +1 to “entrench this mess into our constitution.”

Even the polling a month out that shows the crushing defeat of this boondoggle, but we need to be aware that it probably ought not be trusted.  People are fickle, and the herds of Michigan voters are carefully being prodded along using every tool in the toolbox.

On this site there are no fewer than 70 articles directly or otherwise related to proposal 15-1.  Each of them highlighting a failure of leadership, misuse,  or misrepresentation of resources and fact with regard to the stewardship of our transportation dollars.  We are doing our part to make folks aware that all-is-not-as-it-seems in our state capitol.

But our readership is not the entire population of the state.  (even though it should be)

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MLive Endorses Proposal 1 – Epic Math Fail or Outright Mendacity?

Journalists Bravely Display Their Mathematical Deficit, or......?

fuzzymath
The MLive Media Group Editorial Board endorsed Proposal 2015-01 this morning. The endorsement was no real surprise, given the blizzard of slanted reporting MLive has been posting on Proposal 1 over the last 30 days. The real surprise here was the shoddy math cited in the endorsement:

If you currently pay $100 per month in sales tax, which is the average for median income households in Michigan, you’ll pay an extra $1 per month. Because the sales tax is regressive — it falls disproportionately on the poor — Proposal 1 evens the playing field by expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit, which was cut in 2011.

The fuel tax changes will result in an additional 2 to 10 cents per gallon, depending on gas prices. Some of these costs will surely be offset by reduced damage to vehicles as the roads are improved.

Governor Snyder’s FY 2015 Executive Budget projects that Michigan’s current 6% sales tax will collect $ 7.89 billion in FY 2015 on $ 131.5 billion in taxable products. This is $ 797 per year, per Michigan resident. The U.S. Census says that the average Michigan household is composed of 2.53 persons. Thus the current 6% sales tax is projected to collect $ 2,016 per household in FY 2015, or $ 168 per household, per month.  Not $ 100 per month.

Looking at FY 2015 as if Proposal 2015-01 was in effect, the 7% sales tax would collect $ 8.5 billion on $ 121 billion in taxable products. Keep in mind that road fuel will no longer be subject to the sales tax, so we have to back out S 10.2 billion in formerly taxable fuel sales on just over 4 billion gallons in road fuel. This is $ 855 per year, per person. Thus the proposed 7 % sales tax would collect $ 2,165 per household in FY 2015, or $ 180 per household, per month.

So the difference is $ 12 per month, per Michigan household. Not MLive’s $ 1 per month fantasy factoid.

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