Michigan Politics

Michigan Political considerations.

Clarification and Update

Request to rescind/remove co-sponsorship of the Roe V Wade resolution made the day after.

I am committed to the truth.

Whether or not the initial record of cosponsoring is some freakish inexplicable mistake, Tonya Schuitmaker DID apparently request removal from the list of cosponsors of the resolution in question.

This image is apparently the request made the day after the journal date.

A couple things are strange however.  It does not say “Please correct the record to reflect that I DID NOT cosponsor this resolution”  And.. (as a side thought)  Medicaid expansion in Michigan IS abortion funding.

I will make sure any comments on her behalf are included, as I rarely filter except for the spam we often receive.

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Oh Tonya!

Tonya Schuitmaker pro Roe v Wade a disturbing development

An Attorney General can ‘decide’ not to defend the constitution.

A state AG can decide based on personal motivation to pursue (or not) just about anything that strikes their fancy.  This is why it is important to understand the core beliefs of those whom we might elevate to such a position.

Imagine if the contentious Roe v. Wade were to be sent back to the states so that the state of Michigan could decide.  Would the AG support the efforts to protect the sanctity of life; protect the unborn from the brutality of abortion on demand?  Where would the AG’s conscience lay?

Those who support the Right to Life might be troubled by the following from Senate Journal 15 of 2017:

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Schuette #NeverTrump Pick Disappointing

GOP Nominee reverts to comfort zone.

We already knew Bill Schuette’s choice for Lt. Governor Lisa Posthumus Lyons’ words:

“Demeaning women and disrespecting others is unacceptable behavior. I am raising four kids to stand up for others, to love their neighbor, to exemplify respect and integrity. I do not tolerate anything less from my kids, and I will not tolerate anything less from someone who wants to be President of the United States,” she wrote in 2016.

She wrote that she had remained quiet until then out of respect to voters who had chosen Trump as the nominee, “But it is clear that Donald Trump has not earned my respect or my vote.”

Apparently, she didn’t give that vote to him either.

This morning’s radio audio has Tim Skubick asking if she voted for him.  She replied with “I support President Trump and the policies that are coming out of his administration. ” or some other variation of this, but for the three times she was asked, three times she avoided directly answering the question.

Clearly, she didn’t vote for the president in the general election of 2016.  It is understandable that in the primary other Republicans might get the vote of the flag bearer, or flag bearer jr.  Hell, we all had our favorites.  But when the choice in the general means electing a Republican or promoting a dedicated criminal enterprise, it seems a person of reasonable intelligence might choose the former.

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Republican Kakistocracy concedes election to Gretchen Whitmer

But it is clear that Donald Trump has not earned my respect or my vote.” – Republican state Rep. Lisa Posthumus Lyons (October 8, 2016)

This is the same Republican state Rep. Lisa Posthumus Lyons,  Guv wannabe Bill Schuete just tapped on to be his LG.

I told you so just doesn’t cover it.

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Where Was She Then?

Schuitmaker has opportunity To defend Colbeck at the most appropriate time, yet chokes.

Pat Colbeck was a champion for Michigan.

And for a couple more months he still will be a champion.  I’ll not mince words about it.  I support our nominee wholeheartedly, but truly I believe Pat was a man who by all measure attempted to find solutions and serve the people of this state with principles solutions, honor, and substance.

Pat had a long road to get to the point where he decided to run.  His eight year service as State Senator was solid, and he was/is unafraid to face down the jackals like Richardville and Meekhof; two of the swampiest representatives to ever find leadership roles in Lansing.

Still serving his constituents in Lansing until the end of this year, Pat Colbeck lost all committee assignments, and had all office control removed.  Why?  Because he wouldn’t play kiss the pollywog’s ass’ with Senator Arlan Meekhof. This is not a common occurrence in Michigan’s robust history, and could only happen with the thinnest skinned critters in leadership.

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Extremist Democrat Candidate For Governor Agrees With Abolishing ICE

Whitmer's leftist extremism on display in Lansing

They’re going to have to own this nonsense.

Tomorrow she might say something very different to salvage any middle of the road Dems, but folks have been wising up to the extremist views held by Democrat candidates. Gretchen Whitmer bobble-heads her agreement to abolishing our immigration enforcement in this video.

“I think we need a governor, who will stand up to the federal government” she says.  As governor, she COULD make enforcement of our borders problematic.

Thoughts?

 

 

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Lessons from the 2018 Primary Elections

What can we learn from the 2018 primary elections? This article explains what the winning candidates had in common. I wrote similar articles in 2014 and 2016.

They don’t call it the establishment for nothing Establishment candidates won virtually all state senate races and most state house races. They have the inside track on fundraising, endorsements, and organization.

The moderate wing of the party was hammered, with David Maturen losing renomination, and Kathy Crawford narrowly surviving.  Daniela Garcia, Dave Pagel, Brett Roberts, Mike Callton, and Joe Haveman lost state senate primaries.  Only Chris Afendoulis and Mike McCready won primaries, advancing to competitive generals.

Some solid conservatives won primaries (Jim Runestad, Lana Theis, Tom Barrett), while others lost (Bob Genetski, Gary Glenn, and Ray Franz).  The most common winners were mainstream conservatives like Pete Lucido, Ruth Johnson, John Bizon, Kim LaSata, Aric Nesbitt, Roger Victory, Rick Outman, Jon Bumstead, and Curt VanderWall.  A similar pattern held in for state house nominations.

Experience counts Elected experience is valuable for winning candidates. All of the Republican state senate nominees were previously state representatives. State house winners Doug Tietz, Sarah Lightner, and Christine Barnes have all been elected to county commissions.

Incumbency Matters All but one incumbent Republican won renomination. Beating an incumbent in a primary is very hard. The one exception this year is Matt Hall, who spent more than 200K of his own money to defeat David Maturen.  The only other conservative challengers who beat a Republican incumbent in recent years are Tim Walberg in 2006 and Lee Chatfield in 2014. Certainly many incumbents deserve primary challenges, but conservatives have limited resources. Winning an open seat is much easier than beating an incumbent. Politicians can still be held to account when they run for other offices, as with the moderates listed above.  There are still some benefits to primary challenges, though, as they may encourage the incumbent to vote better for awhile and may help the challenger to win an open seat later.

If at first you don’t succeed  David Wolkinson and Gary Eisen both finished second in 2012 state house primaries.  This time, they won their primaries.  Matt Maddock lost a close primary for state senate in 2014, but won a big victory for state house this time.  Candidates who lost this time should look for opportunities to run again in the future.

Build a brand  David Wolkinson, Doug Tietz, Matt Maddock, Matt Hall, and Annette Glenn are known across Michigan for advocating conservative causes.  This can provide a larger fundraising base to tap when you run for office.

Don’t split the vote Conservatives did much better this year than in past years. Senate district 12 is one example where a conservative candidate likely lost due to vote splitting. Conservatives may have benefited from splits in the establishment in senate districts 30 and house districts 40 and 81.

Money doesn’t buy elections  Self-funding candidates have a bad electoral track record.  Shri Thanedar, Jim Himes, Sandy Pensler all self-funded statewide bids and lost.  Self-funder Lena Epstein did win the nomination in MI-11.

Money is essential Money does not guarantee victory, but it is essential to get your message out. This is particularly true in local elections, which are often decided by name recognition. Look at how much winning conservative candidates raised.
Wolkinson 69K
Tietz 67K
Maddock 98K
Hall 209K
Meerman 30K
Glenn 52K

The candidate who raised the most money won in 13 of 21 contested primaries in open Republican seats (fewer than in past cycles). I have written before that the minimum amount needed to be a credible candidate is $30,000. Only five winners raised less than 30K this cycle, two in races where no candidate did.  All but one winner raised at least 15K.

Exceptions are exceptional The only Republican with bad fundraising to win nomination is Gary Eisen, a firearms instructor who raised only 3K.  He had finished second in 2012, and apparently had built some support from that run.  He joins Steven Johnson (2016) and Aaron Miller (2014) as candidates who beat the odds despite poor fundraising. So it is possible for a candidate who works hard to catch on with voters without the usual advantages. But it definitely isn’t the way to bet, and it shouldn’t be an excuse to ignore the usual path to victory.

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Coming Out Swinging

Bill Schuette is immediately ready to face down the failed ideas of the left.

The left is bereft of ideas.

Well, maybe not ‘bereft’, but the ideas they have are generally failed attempts at creating equal outcomes instead of promoting equal opportunity.  Socialism, a well documented catastrophe of civilization’s epoch is now the new norm for the Democrat party.  The tragedy of the ‘best intentions’ has no equal in ways of starving and inciting misery in otherwise viable populations.

Venezuela is easily offered up as the latest misadventure of re-distribution.  Million Plus percentage inflation, pets on plates, and political corruption that would make the bolsheviks of old blush with envy.

Yet there are people in Michigan who still idealize such ‘planned society’.  They exist primarily in the Democrat party, and their newest flag bearer is not shy about pandering to the promises-that-can-never-be-kept in order to gain power.

Bill Schuette, having earned the nomination of the Republican party is wasting no time challenging the nominee of the Democrats.  In a press release today he appears confident that a comparison of her record and rhetoric will expose the regressive policies of those who once upon a time preferred to be called ‘progressive.’

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2018 August Primary Election Results

Governor:
(R) Schuette 51 Calley 25 Colbeck 13 Hines 11
(D) Whitmer 52 El-Sayed 30 Thanedar 18
No surprise. Shri can’t buy votes.

Senate
(R) James 55 Pensler 45
Trump’s endorsement was key here.

Congress
6 (D) Longjohn 37 Franklin 29 Benac 21 Eichholz 13
9 (D) Levin 52 Lipton 42 Dynasty wins here.
11 (R) Epstein 31 Raczkowski 26 Kowall 18 Kesto 14 Bentivolio 11
11 (D) Stevens 27 Greimel 22 Gupta 21 Saad 19 Skinner 10
13 (Regular) (D) Tlaib 33 Jones 29 Wild 14 Young 12 Conyers 6 Jackson 5
13 (Special) (D) Jones 37 Tlaib 36 Wild 15 Conyers 11
A split black vote allowed Tlaib to win the regular primary, while a smaller candidate field allowed Jones to win the special primary.

State Senate
1 (D) Chang 49 Talabi 27 Progressive wins.
2 (D) Hollier 27 Banks 19 Aiyash 17 The cranks were rejected here.
3 (D) Santana 42 Woronchak 39 Belle 14
4 (D) Bullock 45 Durhal 39
5 (D) Alexander 54 Knezek 46 Huge upset of a white D.
6 (D) Geiss 65 Kosowski 35 More liberal D wins.
8 (R) Lucido 72 Goike 28
9 (D) Wojno 63 Lodovisi 37
10 (R) MacDonald 59 Shallal 27
11 (D) Moss 52 Bailey 21
12 (R) McCready 45 Tedder 44 Whitney 8 Moderate wins due to split conservative vote.
14 (R) Johnson 77 Houston 23
15 (R) Runestad 90 Saari 10 Good.
16 (R) Shirkey 64 Dame 36
18 (D) Irwin 35.6 Deatrick 35.2 Rajendra 26
19 (R) Bizon 59 Callton 41 More conservative R wins.
21 (R) LaSata 55 Pagel 45 Conservative R wins.
22 (R) Theis 75 Marinaro 25 Good.
24 (R) Barrett 70 Roberts 30 Big victory.
26 (R) Nesbitt 52 Genetski 29 Consumers Energy smear campaign wins here.
29 (R) Afendoulis 81 Oesch 19
30 (R) Victory 42 Garcia 26 Haveman 26 DeBoer 6 Good that Garcia lost.
31 (R) Daley 59 Glenn 41 Consumers Energy smear campaign wins here.
…(D) Luczak 53 Jordan 20 Pro-life D wins primary.
32 (D) Phelps 59 Gaudreau 41
33 (R) Outman 72 Alexander 28
34 (R) Bumstead 52 Hughes 48 Hughes’ big spending didn’t save her.
…(D) Sias-Hernandez 54 LaMonte 46 Big upset of preferred D candidate.
35 (R) VanderWall 49 Rendon 24 Franz 23 Younger candidate beats two former reps.
37 (R) Schmidt 80 Gurr 20
38 (R) McBroom 69 Carey 31

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